Wall Street On The Edge: Indices end volatile session mixed ahead of key inflation data

0943 GMT - Gold and silver fall back slightly in early trading, with silver retreating from record highs Monday driven by U.S. rate-cut expectations next week and supply tightness. New York gold futures are down 1.2% at $4,225.25 a troy ounce, while gold spot is 0.9% lower at $4,192.16 an ounce. New York silver futures are down 2.8% at $57.52 a troy ounce and silver spot drops 1.9% to $56.92 an ounce. Gold hit a six-week high Monday, also driven by a weak dollar on Federal Reserve rate-cut hopes. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0940 GMT - Upcoming data could show eurozone inflation eased in November but this shouldn't have much impact on the euro, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The data at 1000 GMT "shouldn't move the needle dramatically" for European Central Bank interest-rate expectations, he says. Meanwhile, developments in the Ukraine-Russia peace talks "remain the most relevant topic for the euro this week." A meeting between U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday could provide a clearer sense of whether a deal is nearing, he says. The euro trades flat at $1.1605. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0934 GMT - Sterling isn't out of the woods even as the U.K. government's united front after last week's budget prevents further losses for now, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. Prime Minister Keir Starmer defended Treasury chief Rachel Reeves, rejecting accusations that she misled voters by being overly pessimistic about the economic outlook to justify higher taxes. However, the budget is a long-running problem for sterling as it's questionable whether back-loaded savings will be pursued in the run-up to the 2029 elections, Praefcke says. "In the absence of clear solutions, the issue is likely to remain a subliminal burden on the pound." Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3214. The euro trades flat at 0.8785 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0932 GMT - U.K. house prices are likely to rise further following last week's budget as buyers and developers have clarity on upcoming tax measures, Pantheon Macroeconomics economists say in a note. House prices rose in November by 0.3%, Nationwide data showed, higher than the consensus forecast of 0.1% rise by economists in a WSJ poll. Buyers were undeterred by talk of possible tax rises at the budget, the economists say. "The passing of the budget will provide certainty for homeowners to enter the market, helping to build on that already-healthy activity data." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0907 GMT - The Bank of England loosening capital standards is an opportunity for banks to start changing the narrative on common equity tier 1, a key capital ratio, RBC Capital Markets says in a research note. The BOE plans to trim the tier 1 requirement to around 13% from 14%, with implementation of the Basel 3.1 rules in 2027. This would free up 8.47 billion pounds of capital for the eight U.K. lenders in RBC's coverage. "We would try and shift emphasis away from absolute CET1 ratios, and instead make the focus of investor presentations capital levels relative to regulatory targets," analyst Benjamin Toms writes. If some banks start to bring down management targets in the next 12 months, this will be of particular importance, he adds. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0845 GMT - Sterling remains heavily undervalued against the euro when measured against the U.K.-German inflation-adjusted real rate differential, Convera strategist George Vessey says in a note. Fiscal credibility is yet to be "convincingly re-established" after last week's U.K. budget and political uncertainty remains elevated, he says. "Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to deliver at least two rate cuts next year, with markets split on whether a third will follow--hardly a recipe for a structurally stronger pound." Moreover, a decline in historical volatility in the exchange rate means it requires a stronger catalysts to break out of its narrow range, he says. The euro trades flat at 0.8787 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0841 GMT - The August 2031 index-linked gilt trades cheap and is likely to perform well over the coming weeks, RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. The U.K. Debt Management Office is due to auction one billion pounds ($1.32 billion) in this bond at 1000 GMT. The supply of August 2031 index-linked gilts is expected to be low. Along with a cheap valuation, this should support the bonds' performance in the coming weeks, the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0839 GMT - Taiwan's economy is likely to keep flying in 2026, says Jason Tuvey at Capital Economics in a research note. The island is on course to record a GDP growth of over 7% this year, and CE's forecast for the economy to expand by another 5% next year is well above the consensus of 2.5%, says the deputy chief emerging markets economist. Rapid growth in exports of AI-related products is likely to remain the key driver of the economy next year and the sluggish domestic demand will be less of a laggard, Tuvey says. Even if the gains from the export boom continue to only accrue to a small share of workers, stronger real wage growth across the economy as a whole should eventually prompt households to loosen the purse strings, Tuvey adds.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0832 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, are little changed as markets turn calmer. On Monday, increased expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates in December caused Japanese, eurozone, U.S. and U.K. government bond yields to move higher. Ten-year gilt yields trade steady at 4.479% in early trade, after rising to a five-day high of 4.500% on Monday, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0827 GMT - European indexes open mixed as investors digest big movements in cryptocurrencies and Japanese government bonds overnight. The Spanish IBEX 35 is the biggest mover out of the blocks, with the index jumping 0.3% at open. Germany's DAX and Italy's FTSE MIB are also up, with both rising 0.15%. However, the U.K.'s premier FTSE 100 index is down 0.04%, while France's CAC 40 drops 0.14%. The biggest riser in Europe was Bayer, jumping 13% after the White House backed a bid for a Supreme Court review in its Roundup pesticide case. Investors also await the Eurozone inflation flash for November, expected at 1000 GMT. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0815 GMT - Bitcoin recovers slightly after Monday's sharp losses as risky assets stabilize. Still, gains are limited and analysts say the cryptocurrency's recovery could be shallow. Bitcoin registered its biggest one-day decline since March on Monday as hints about another interest-rate rise from Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda dampened risk appetite. The broader crypto market has shed nearly $1.4 trillion from its October peak, according to IG. Analysts cite concern that rising Japanese bond yields could lead Japanese investors to repatriate foreign investments, including in crypto, back to Japan. Bitcoin rises 0.6% to $87,030 after hitting a one-week low of $83,878, LSEG data show. It's still down more than 30% since October's record high of $126,223. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0810 GMT - Bitcoin is stabilizing above $86,000 but a deeper fragility lurks beneath, says Samer Hasn at XS.com. In the market analyst's view, there are no convincing signs that the rout is over. Structural factors continue to weigh, with so-called whales--investors with big holdings--continuing to sell. Such offloading weakens any attempt at finding a price floor and reinforces the probability of deeper retracement, Hasn says in a note. "Spot-market activity also reflects weakening conviction." External shocks add pressure too, including from a sudden shift in BOJ rate-hike bets and concerns about Strategy, a major bitcoin-accumulation company. If Strategy starts liquidating its BTC reserves, that could risk sparking "crypto winter 2.0," especially if combined with other factors like leverage position unwinding, Hasn says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

Silver prices climbed toward their all-time high on Friday (November 28) in global markets, supported by strong industrial demand, tightening supplies and growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Spot silver rose 1.4% to $54.18 per ounce, moving close to its record level of $54.50 an ounce and extending its weekly gain to 7.4% an ounce.

In India, silver prices tracked the global rise and held firm at ₹173 per gram and ₹1.73 lakh per kilogram, reflecting steady interest from both investors and jewellers.

Analysts said the uptrend is being driven by a combination of higher industrial offtake—particularly from solar and electronics—and consistent investment demand.

“Silver’s gains are supported by real, underlying demand rather than speculation,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA).

Expectations of a US rate cut in December have further boosted sentiment.

The CME FedWatch tool shows traders pricing an 87% chance of an easing, up sharply from last week. A weaker US dollar has added to the support, making dollar-priced metals more attractive for global buyers.

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, silver continues to trade near lifetime highs in international markets. He pegged key levels at $53.10–52.75 an ounce for support and $53.95–54.40 an ounce for resistance.

Analysts expect silver to stay well-supported in the near term as long as industrial demand remains strong and rate-cut expectations hold.

-With Reuters inputs

Gold and silver extended their gains on Friday (November 28) as growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December continued to buoy global bullion markets. Firmer bets on monetary easing, coupled with a weakening US dollar, pushed gold toward a fourth consecutive monthly rise and lifted silver to fresh multi-month highs.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,189.61 per ounce by 0303 GMT—its highest level since November 14—and is set for 3% weekly and 3.9% monthly gains.

US gold futures for December advanced 0.5% to $4,221.30 an ounce. Silver climbed 1.4% to $54.18 an ounce.

Rate-cut bets strengthen bullion appeal

The dominant driver for bullion has been rising conviction that the Fed will ease policy next month.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now assign an 87% probability to a December rate cut, a sharp rise from 50% one week ago.

“Liquidity is thin and that’s intensifying market moves. Much of the push in gold comes from pre-positioning for a lower interest-rate environment,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade.

Dovish comments from Fed officials, including Mary Daly and Christopher Waller, reinforced expectations of easing. The narrative gained further momentum as Kevin Hassett, seen as a front runner to replace Jerome Powell, echoed calls for lower rates.

A weaker US dollar—on track for its worst week since late July—provided additional support, making gold more attractive for buyers using other currencies.

Indian gold and silver prices hold steady

Indian bullion prices remained stable:

• 24K gold: ₹12,846 per gram
• 22K gold: ₹11,775 per gram
• 18K gold: ₹9,634 per gram
• Silver: ₹173 per gram | ₹1.73 lakh per kg

The ongoing wedding season is lending further support to domestic demand.

“Gold continues to offer long-term stability, and the current market environment is reinforcing investor confidence,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA).

She added that silver’s gains are driven by solid industrial demand and rising investment flows.

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, gold and silver maintained momentum in Asian trade despite muted global cues due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

What’s driving the outlook?

Bullion markets are likely to stay sensitive to policy signals. Lower interest rates typically enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, while silver may continue to benefit from a combination of industrial demand and investment interest.

However, optimism around US-led diplomatic efforts in the Russia–Ukraine conflict may limit sharp upside moves, keeping price swings in check.

-With Reuters inputs

Gold and silver eased on Thursday (November 27) as traders booked profits after the previous session’s rally, but expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December continue to anchor sentiment across global bullion markets.

Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $4,145.08 an ounce, while silver fell 0.9% to $52.89 an ounce.

In India, gold traded at ₹12,775 per gram (24k) and silver at ₹173 per gram, with domestic demand holding firm due to the peak wedding season.

Fed signals keep bullion range-bound

Conflicting remarks from Federal Reserve officials have pushed investors into a wait-and-watch mode, creating choppy but upward-leaning momentum for precious metals. Markets are pricing in a strong chance of a December cut, keeping Treasury yields near one-month lows and supporting non-yielding assets like gold.

“The Fed isn’t clear about what they’ll do next, so gold is just consolidating,” said Brian Lan of GoldSilver Central.

For now, gold remains sensitive to incoming US economic data, but traders say the broader backdrop still favours safe-haven buying.

Indian demand offsets global volatility

Domestic sentiment remains steady, supported by jewellery purchases and investor accumulation during the wedding season. According to Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, gold continues to attract buyers as expectations of monetary easing make it a preferred hedge.

Silver, she noted, is benefiting from consistent industrial demand and reduced availability in the import market, which has helped maintain firmness despite global price swings.

Key trading range in focus

Analysts say bullion is likely to remain trapped in a broad range until clearer economic signals emerge.

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities, pointed out that gold and silver are responding primarily to shifts in rate-cut expectations, with the dip in US yields providing support. Short-term traders are watching levels near $4,130 an ounce on gold and $52.65 an ounce on silver as key supports, while resistance zones around $4,200 an ounce and $53.90 an ounce remain difficult to breach.

The domestic market reflects a similar pattern, with prices largely oscillating within established bands.

Investment strategy: Use dips, pace allocations

With volatility driven almost entirely by macro signals, analysts recommend building exposure gradually rather than making large directional bets.

According to Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director of RiddiSiddhi Bullions and President of IBJA, gold and silver are “dancing to the tunes of Fed rate-cut bets,” with dovish remarks from policymakers strengthening expectations of easing. He expects gold to trade between $4,000 and $4,200 an ounce (₹1.21–1.27 lakh per 10g) and silver between $49 and $53 an ounce (₹1.50–1.60 lakh per kg).

For long-term investors, the current pullback offers an opportunity to accumulate through staggered purchases or structured products such as sovereign gold bonds and digital gold, which allow steady entry without timing the market.

Those considering silver may look at the metal’s industrial upside, particularly as demand strengthens in solar energy, electric vehicles and electronics manufacturing.

What to watch next

Upcoming US retail sales, producer inflation data and jobless claims will heavily influence near-term price direction. A confirmation of a December rate cut could nudge bullion higher, while persistent inflation pressures may keep gains capped.

Until then, analysts advise sticking to conservative allocations and using corrections as entry points, with gold and silver both expected to stay within their existing trading corridors.

-With Reuters inputs

Gold and silver prices in India edged higher on Tuesday (November 25), tracking gains in the international market as expectations of a US interest-rate cut in December strengthened. The move came despite a firm dollar, which typically tempers demand for dollar-priced bullion.

In the domestic market, 24-karat gold traded at ₹12,704 per gram, while 22-karat gold stood at ₹11,645 per gram. Silver was quoted at ₹162.90 per gram, or ₹1.62 lakh per kilogram.

In global trade, spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,147.51 an ounce, its highest level in more than a week, extending Monday’s (November 24's) 1.8% jump. US gold futures for December were up 1.2% at $4,144.70 an ounce.

Spot silver hovered around $51.42 an ounce.

Rate-cut momentum lifts bullion

The shift in sentiment followed dovish remarks from top US Federal Reserve officials. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the labour market appeared weak enough to justify another quarter-point cut in December, provided upcoming data—delayed by the government shutdown—supports the case.

New York Fed President John Williams also signalled that rates could fall “in the near term.”

Those comments sharply recalibrated expectations: investors now assign an 81% probability to a December cut, up from 40% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“Gold is primarily being driven by expectations of a rate cut,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. “Since expectations shot up rapidly, it caused gold prices to recover in the short term.” Wong added that markets are watching upcoming U.S. data with “much more interest.”

Despite the upbeat tone, the dollar’s resilience near six-month highs is capping stronger upside for bullion.

Analysts flag volatility, key data triggers

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, said gold and silver remain volatile ahead of a heavy US data calendar. “Precious metals found support from dovish Fed remarks… However, a stable dollar index and Russia-Ukraine peace-deal hopes are limiting gains,” he noted.

Kalantri pegged gold support at $4,100–4,065 an ounce and resistance at $4,170–4,195 an ounce, while silver faces support at $51.00–50.65 an ounce and resistance at $51.70–52.10 an ounce.

This week’s delayed releases of US retail sales, producer price inflation and jobless claims are expected to offer clearer signals on whether the Fed will validate current market optimism.

Domestic demand holds firm

Wedding-season buying continues to underpin Indian prices, said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA).

“Gold remains a strong portfolio anchor… Investors are buying not only for ornamental value but also for long-term wealth preservation,” she said.

Silver demand is also receiving support from both festive consumption and industrial needs, particularly in electronics and solar applications. Kamboj said sentiment is shifting “from consolidation to modest gain potential.”

-With Reuters inputs