Vanguard Executive Compares Bitcoin To A ‘Digital Labubu’ Even As Firm Allows Client Access To Crypto ETFs

Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year cycle is still playing out, but the forces behind it have shifted away from the halving toward politics and liquidity, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.

Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that the idea of the four-year cycle being “broken” misses the point. In his view, the cycle remains intact, but it is no longer dictated by Bitcoin (BTC)’s programmed supply cuts. Instead, it is increasingly shaped by US election timelines, central bank policy and the flow of capital into risk assets.

Thielen pointed to historical market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, all of which occurred in the fourth quarter. Those peaks, he said, align more closely with presidential election cycles and broader political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have shifted throughout the calendar over the years.

“There's this uncertainty that the sitting president's party is going to lose a lot of seats. I think that's also the odds now that Trump would lose or Republicans would lose a lot of seats in the House, and therefore, maybe he's not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore,” he said.

By Angus Berwick

ABU DHABI — The word went out among those gathered for the crypto conference: The Big Money guys were here. Representatives from a $330 billion United Arab Emirates sovereign-wealth fund were said to be circulating — if only they could be found.

Many of crypto's biggest players trooped to Abu Dhabi last week, hoping to secure deals with deep-pocketed Emirati investors who could inject fresh vigor into the industry following two months in the doldrums.

Crypto executives careened around the U.A.E. capital, dashing between a half-dozen different conferences, a "Whale Only" night at a secluded beach club, and champagne-soaked parties aboard superyachts. They traded intel about exclusive dinners with star guests, and sought out supposed gatekeepers to the royal family.

At the Bitcoin MENA conference was Michael Saylor, founder of the largest bitcoin-buying firm Strategy, whose share price has more than halved since midyear. He said he had been touring the Gulf to pitch "hundreds of investors" — including sovereign-wealth funds — on his plan to accumulate ever more of the digital currency through myriad financial instruments.

He displayed a presentation, which he said he had shown to potential investors, that portrayed Strategy as a space rocket fueled by bitcoin, headed toward a "$20 Trillion Idea."

The president of Metaplanet, a Japanese hotel-operator-turned-bitcoin-hoarder whose shares likewise have collapsed, said on stage it was looking to raise money via a new preferred-share plan called "MARS."

Other prospectors included the Trump family's go-to investment bank, Dominari Holdings, and the asset-manager arm of Korean conglomerate Hanwha Group, which said it plans to make Abu Dhabi a regional hub as part of a push into crypto products.

The crypto-market downturn caught the industry off-guard. Many participants expected that President Trump's unbridled support for the sector would lead to accelerating adoption and boundless gains. But while U.S. stock markets have remained close to record highs, bitcoin lost steam in October after a cascade of market liquidations stung traders and exchanges.

And Trump's legislative agenda for crypto has stumbled, with some Democratic lawmakers hitting the brakes on a new bill to create a regulatory framework for the digital-currency market.

The U.A.E.'s appetite for crypto, however, has only grown.

Last week, Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, said it had received full approval from Abu Dhabi's financial regulator to operate its global trading platform from the capital. A state-backed Emirati investment firm bought a $2 billion stake in Binance earlier this year.

A unit of Mubadala, the sovereign-wealth fund, disclosed in November it had tripled a bet on bitcoin, building a position then worth about $518 million, while Mubadala separately recorded another bitcoin holding via an exchange-traded fund worth $567 million the same month. A spokesman for Mubadala declined to comment.

And Abu Dhabi's government is luring crypto startups to set up shop in the city's financial center by offering early financing, free office space and other perks.

"The liquidity, decision makers and infrastructure are all here," said Kristiina Lumeste, founder of Klumi Ventures, an Abu Dhabi-based venture-capital firm that is raising a $100 million crypto-focused fund from local investors.

The crypto industry split along tribal lines during the week. The hardcore faithful headed to the bitcoin conference with Saylor, whose fans tailed him around the event in the hope of getting a selfie, as his minders begged them to let him leave.

Organizers honored Saylor with a bright orange jacket, with the bitcoin symbol sewn onto its front pocket.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, whom Trump pardoned in October after a jail term for an anti-money-laundering violation, strode onto stage wearing a pair of orange high-tops emblazoned with the words: "Trump. Crypto President."

The pardon followed Binance's efforts to boost the Trump family's own crypto venture World Liberty Financial, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

A lawyer for Zhao said the pardon was "completely unrelated to any of Binance's actual or purported business transactions." Binance doesn't have "any direct or indirect financial relationship" with the Trump family or their businesses, the company added.

World Liberty previously said it never facilitated or influenced a decision on Zhao's pardon.

Zhao and Binance executives a few days earlier had hosted guests at Abu Dhabi's Grand Prix on a three-story yacht moored trackside by dozens of other mega craft. Hundreds danced late into the night on decks mounted with disco balls, smoke machines and laser lights.

On Monday, Zhao attended a dinner in the St. Regis hotel that included another Trump pardon recipient: the president's former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, who told the conference he helped persuade Trump of crypto's merits.

Zhao's lawyer said many speakers at the conference attended the dinner. Manafort didn't respond to a request for comment.

The other tribe, the institutional money crowd, hung out at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week conference on the financial district's waterfront.

Executives from blue-chip U.S. crypto companies Coinbase and Circle mixed with Wall Street figures — including Bridgewater hedge-fund founder Ray Dalio and Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman — and representatives from traditional-banking stalwarts UBS and HSBC.

Abu Dhabi's crown prince attended the opening, along with senior executives from Mubadala and other sovereign-wealth funds. A shop run by the organizers offered Abu Dhabi-branded T-shirts and hoodies with the logo "Capital of Capital."

Basil Al Askari, co-founder of Abu Dhabi-based crypto brokerage MidChains, which is backed by Mubadala, said there were a lot of U.A.E. first-timers looking to return home with a quick deal.

Several people he met made the "rookie mistake" of assuming he worked for a major U.A.E. investor just because he was Emirati and was wearing a traditional thobe.

Except for a few outliers, he said it typically took a few years of relationship-building, as well as commitments to develop operations here, to persuade a sovereign-wealth fund or major family office to invest.

The fortunate few who did so got to trumpet new deals. In a presentation, RockawayX, a venture-capital firm with about $1.8 billion in assets, called the U.A.E. "the new Wall Street of digital finance," a week after announcing it would be acquired by a company backed by an Abu Dhabi investor.

"They're not looking for people to parachute in and leave with a bag of cash," said Samantha Bohbot, chief growth officer of RockawayX, which had set up a U.A.E. headquarters and a local incubator hub for crypto projects. "You must have some substantive skin in the game, and stay the course."

Write to Angus Berwick at angus.berwick@wsj.com

Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard has predicted that banks increasingly need Bitcoin exposure to serve clients and strengthen their own balance sheets. 

He is convinced that global banks will eventually integrate with the network now that the institutional adoption of the flagship cryptocurrency is accelerating.

This echoes the forecast of Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor becoming active participants in Bitcoin-related products. 

Coinbase’s new partnership 

Earlier this week, Coinbase and Standard Chartered announced an expanded partnership aimed at developing institutional-grade digital asset services globally. 

The collaboration expands beyond their previous work in Singapore (real-time SGD transfers for Coinbase users).

It aims to develop end-to-end digital asset services for institutions that include trading, custody, lending, staking, and so on.

Crypto and banking 

PNC Bank has also teamed with Coinbase to allow direct Bitcoin trading for its private banking clients through the bank’s platform, marking a structural shift in how mainstream banks provide access to crypto.

Ripple expanded its partnership with AMINA Bank, enabling the bank to integrate Ripple’s payments solution. 

In Europe and the Middle East, similar collaborations are taking shape. Bullish and Deutsche Bank teamed up to deliver seamless fiat integration for institutional crypto trading. 

In the meantime, regulatory approval by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has opened the door for crypto firms like Circle, Ripple, Paxos, BitGo and Fidelity to pursue national trust bank charters. 

The crypto market has shown a modest price rebound in the last three weeks, returning to a total market cap of $3.07 trillion. During this time, Bitcoin has climbed by 11% from its local bottom at $80,700, while Ethereum has been more aggressive, gaining by 18% within the same period. Despite these reassuring performances, a market analyst with the username PelinayPA postulates that the bear market has commenced, considering certain technical parameters.

BTC & ETH Moving Averages, Trading Volumes Signal Bear Season 

Bear market speculations have been at a heightened level in Q4 2025, as the crypto market suffered extensive price corrections, during which Bitcoin alone retraced by around 36.5%. While the market may have shown some steady upward mobility in recent weeks, many analysts remain convinced the bears have assumed market control, leaving little bullish potential for a full market reversal.

In analyzing Bitcoin’s chart, PelinayPA explains that price is presently trading below the short (7, 14), medium (30, 50), and long-term moving averages (100), indicating a strong sellers’ dominance in the market. However, the more concerning observation is that these averages are sloping downward, suggesting the recent downtrend or corrections may not be temporary.

Furthermore, the seasoned crypto analyst notes these moving averages are acting as resistance in classic bear-market behavior that initiates a selling spree upon contact with price. In addition, sellers are also aggressive as red candles come with higher volume, while hesitant buyers load the green candles with relatively lower volumes. Based on these technical observations, PelinayPA explains that Bitcoin is not launching a bullish market reversal, but rather remains in a reaction within a larger bear market. 

Meanwhile, the Ethereum market analysis shows a similar situation in that price is trading below key moving averages. However, the short-term MAs (7, 14) are beginning to turn upward. In addition, the price rebounds from lows are stable and stronger while candles are recording shorter wicks, indicating the selling pressure is less aggressive, why buying interest remains visible. 

Therefore, while Ethereum is clearly stronger than Bitcoin, the bullish strength remains insufficient to initiate a trend reversal as long-term MAs remain downward sloping amid low buying volume.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $90,155 after a minor 0.22% decline in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 20.34% and valued at $64.22 billion.

According to PelinayPA, the Bitcoin bull rally is finished, and a deeper price correction is needed before investors see another parabolic surge or all-time high. The analyst predicts Bitcoin to bottom around $50,000 in the “ongoing” bear market, postulating a potential 44.4% decline from the present market prices.

A token for Cardano’s privacy-focused network, Midnight (NIGHT), entered active market trading, recorded more than $1 billion in 24-hour volume and market cap, even ranking ahead of XRP by turnover on Bybit.

Of course, the main man behind Cardano, Charles Hoskinson, reacted to the astonishing milestone, though in a laconic manner, saying that $1 billion in volume is an "absolutely remarkable" achievement for a new token.

Now to NIGHT, which traded at around $0.069 across major exchanges, pushing its market capitalization above $1 billion. The volume-to-market-cap ratio currently stands at 96.5%, so to say that the trading activity for the token many may see as the "new ADA" is hot is to underestimate it.

As was mentioned above, Bybit, the second largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, alone accounted for over $650 million in turnover, with Binance, Alpha, OKX, KuCoin and Gate following close behind. This confirms that the activity was widespread, not isolated.

Midnight is not marketed as a meme or a short-term narrative asset. It is positioned as a programmable privacy network built on zero-knowledge proofs, dual-ledger architecture and selective disclosure tooling aimed at enterprises, identity systems and compliant DeFi.

NIGHT price chart reflects hype

After trading below $0.05 for most of the session, NIGHT surged into the $0.07 zone in a near-vertical move, then entered a consolidation band between $0.066 and $0.071.

For traders, the $1 billion print indicates that Midnight has joined the conversation about liquidity with top-tier Layer-1 ecosystems. For developers, it suggests an early commitment of capital ahead of mainnet tooling and the rollout of zero-knowledge (ZK) applications.

For Cardano itself, Midnight’s breakthrough redefines the ecosystem as a multi-network stack in which privacy, compliance and scalability can coexist without compromises.