Valero Executive Says Tariffs on Canadian Energy Could Trim U.S. Refinery Output by 10% — OPIS

Dow Jones Newswires

U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy imports could reduce domestic refining output by as much as 10%, a Valero Energy official said on Thursday.

Valero Chief Operating Officer Gary Simmons said the company has been preparing responses to potential tariffs from the Trump administration, adding that Valero's sophisticated U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are flexible enough to process crude oil from around the world.

But in a conference call with analysts to discuss the San Antonio, Texas-based company's fourth quarter financial results, Simmons said "there is a point where if heavy feedstocks become limited, it affects the rate and production of clean products certainly from our assets and we would expect industry-wide."

Greg Bram, the company's vice president of refining services, said refiners could see as much as a 10% drop in throughput, depending on how high the tariff is and how much less heavy oil companies would consume.

The White House on Tuesday said Trump intends to impose 25% tariffs on energy imports from Canada and Mexico.

Bram also told analysts Valero is advancing on a $230 million fluid catalytic cracking unit optimization project at its 235,000 b/d St. Charles refinery in Norco, La., and expects to complete the work in 2026.

The project would boost the refinery's production of high-value products and increase its high-octane output by 6,000 to 7,000 b/d, Bram said.

Simmons said Valero's systemwide gasoline sales so far this month have slightly trailed those in the same period of 2024 and blamed the drop on both severe winter weather that brought freezing temperatures and snow to much of the U.S. and a two-day outage of the Colonial Pipeline. He said diesel systemwide sales year to date were off by "a few percent."

Simmons also said he expects U.S. gasoline demand in 2025 to be at about last year's level and projects diesel sales will edge up by about 1%.

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Jeff Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com

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Gold Futures Set New Record on Safe-Haven Demand, Weaker U.S. Dollar — 2nd Update

Dow Jones Newswires

By Joe Hoppe and Kirk Maltais

Gold futures set a fresh record on safe-haven demand, a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields.

The April gold contract, the most-active futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, settled up 2.7% at $2,845.20 a troy ounce, after hitting a record intraday high of $2,853.20 earlier in the day. The prior record of $2,800.80 was set in late October.

Gold prices have been volatile in recent days, with a sharp selloff on Monday seeing them shed 1.4%, as traders covered margins in a global rout of technology stocks. Prices gradually regained ground in the following days, before a similarly sharp jump on Thursday.

The latest rally in gold prices likely reflects a combination of rising uncertainty about U.S. policies and a weaker dollar following the disappointing fourth quarter GDP report, Sprott Managing Partner Ryan McIntyre said in emailed commentary.

Recent U.S. economic indicators along with the latest data showed softer-than-expected growth in the final quarter of 2024. This economic deceleration has contributed to a weakening of the dollar, which is providing support for gold, Sonora Wealth Group investment adviser Miro Svoboda wrote.

Weakening in the greenback makes it cheaper for international purchasers to buy dollar-denominated assets like gold and improves the appeal of its safe-haven aspects.

The slide in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields followed Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, which saw the central bank hold interest rates steady. Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution in Wednesday's meeting over further interest rate cuts, but noted that "interest rates are meaningfully above neutral," SP Angel analysts said in a note.

The Fed's communication emphasized inflation concerns and acknowledged robust economic growth as well as strong labor market conditions, raising hopes for easing monetary policy, Svoboda said.

Markets are now pricing in around two U.S. interest-rate cuts this year, a boon for non-interest bearing bullion. The Bank of Canada cut rates on Wednesday and as did the European Central Bank on Thursday, further supporting the metal's appeal.

Gold has recorded a strong start to the year climbing 7.8% this month, and is set to rise much further in the short term now that President Donald Trump has taken office, MUFG analysts write.

Trump's administration will drive safe-haven demand and play into the fear-related dimension of MUFG's bullish expectations for gold in 2025, the analysts said in a note. Commodities act as a critical inflation hedge, and MUFG expects a number of Trump-policy-induced inflation shocks.

Among the policies mentioned by analysts as a risk to markets and global economic stability are Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada that are set to take effect on Saturday, the analysts said. Threatened tariffs on China, Europe and commodities like copper, aluminum, iron and steel are a risk as well.

"We anticipate that gold will continue to perform well in 2025 due to the many uncertainties in the world and the ongoing desire for a store of value independent of other assets and institutions," Sprott's McIntyre said.

Market participants have also moved to borrow gold from central banks with London-based storage facilities. This demand surge was triggered by increased gold deliveries to the U.S., prompted by the potential import tariff speculation, resulting in significant London market bullion shortages, Sonora's Svoboda said.

Some analysts are now projecting that gold prices may rise higher. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Spartan Capital Services, projects gold prices will rise to more than $3,000 an ounce in future trading sessions.

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com and Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

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Nymex Platinum, Palladium Warehouse Stocks - Jan 30

Dow Jones Newswires

Source: CME Group 
 
For previous business day 
PREV TOTAL subject to revisions. Source: CME Group 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Platinum             Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered         100,254         0        0       0         0    100,254 
Eligible            69,648         0        0       0         0     69,648 
Total              169,902         0        0       0         0    169,902 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered           1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered           4,373         0        0       0         0      4,373 
Eligible            20,946         0        0       0         0     20,946 
Total               25,319         0        0       0         0     25,319 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered           1,442         0        0       0         0      1,442 
Eligible             1,904         0        0       0         0      1,904 
Total                3,347         0        0       0         0      3,347 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered           3,845         0        0       0         0      3,845 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                3,845         0        0       0         0      3,845 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          76,222         0        0       0         0     76,222 
Eligible             1,144         0        0       0         0      1,144 
Total               77,366         0        0       0         0     77,366 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          45,277         0        0       0    34,882     80,159 
Eligible            57,077         0        0       0   -34,882     22,196 
Total              102,354         0        0       0         0    102,354 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered             592         0        0       0         0        592 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                  592         0        0       0         0        592 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           5,845         0        0       0         0      5,845 
Eligible             1,212         0        0       0         0      1,212 
Total                7,057         0        0       0         0      7,057 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered         239,096         0        0       0    34,882    273,978 
Eligible           151,932         0        0       0   -34,882    117,050 
Total              391,028         0        0       0         0    391,028 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Palladium            Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered           1,690         0        0       0         0      1,690 
Eligible             3,008         0        0       0         0      3,008 
Total                4,698         0        0       0         0      4,698 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered              97         0        0       0         0         97 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                   97         0        0       0         0         97 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered             887         0        0       0         0        887 
Eligible             3,108         0        0       0         0      3,108 
Total                3,994         0        0       0         0      3,994 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered             586         0        0       0         0        586 
Eligible             2,623         0        0       0         0      2,623 
Total                3,209         0        0       0         0      3,209 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          12,746         0        0       0         0     12,746 
Eligible               728         0        0       0         0        728 
Total               13,474         0        0       0         0     13,474 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          10,011         0        0       0         0     10,011 
Eligible               301         0        0       0         0        301 
Total               10,312         0        0       0         0     10,312 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           2,116         0        0       0         0      2,116 
Eligible               630         0        0       0         0        630 
Total                2,746         0        0       0         0      2,746 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered          28,133         0        0       0         0     28,133 
Eligible            10,398         0        0       0         0     10,398 
Total               38,531         0        0       0         0     38,531 
 
Write to Taryn Boss at csstat@dowjones.com

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ICE Review: Canola Enters Positive Territory After Mixed Trading

Dow Jones Newswires

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--The ICE Futures canola market continued its up-and-down trade on Thursday, going into positive territory as comparable oils moved in both directions.

European rapeseed was mixed, crude oil was up and Chicago soyoil was relatively steady. Malaysian palm oil was not traded due to the Lunar New Year holiday.

A tightening supply situation will likely necessitate price rationing in the coming months.

An analyst said the Brazilian harvest pace was ramping up due to warmer weather, which would pressure soybean prices and possibly spillover into canola.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up more than one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Wednesday's close. The Bank of Canada announced on Wednesday it cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points at 3%. The U.S. Federal Reserve also announced it left its interest rates unchanged.

There were 40,812 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 41,188 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 26,398 of the contracts traded.

 
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton. 
 
Canola     Price        Change 
 Mar       640.20       up 3.60 
 May       648.40       up 2.80 
 Jul       654.10       up 2.80 
 Nov       640.90       up 1.30 
 
Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads: 
 
Mar/May        8.00 under to 9.00 under       8,190 
Mar/Jul       13.60 under to 15.00 under      1,316 
Mar/Nov        0.50 under                         2 
May/Jul        5.30 under to 6.40 under       2,606 
May/Nov        7.80 over to 3.70 over            70 
Jul/Nov       13.50 over to 9.50 over         1,011 
Nov/Jan        4.50 under                         4

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

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Oil Futures Edge Higher With Focus on OPEC+, Trump Tariffs — Market Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Oil futures make modest gains heading toward a weekend in which eyes will be on the possibility of the U.S. hitting Mexico and Canada with trade tariffs and the OPEC+ reaction to President Trump's bid to lower prices when the group meets onMonday. "While the market remains jittery amid uncertain geopolitics, especially due to U.S. policy risks, fundamentals should drive a moderating trend for oil prices," analysts at Citi Research say in a note. "President Trump's impact on oil markets is likely to be net bearish, driven by pro-U.S. fossil fuel policy, encouragement of OPEC+ to boost supply, and downside to oil demand due to tariff policy." WTI settles up 0.2% at $72.73 a barrel, andBrent rises 0.4% to $76.87. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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