U.S.-Iran Tensions Persist as Tariff Escalation Intersects with Energy Supply Expectations

Daily News

Summary:

Trump says he is close to deciding on a "large-scale strike" against Iran; the United States announces new tariffs effective July 24.

Highlights

1. Trump says he is close to deciding on a "large-scale strike" against Iran.

2. The United States announces new tariffs, effective July 24.

3. Iraqi Prime Minister: Iraq will not allow its territory to be used for actions threatening Iran.

4. Israel says it is fully prepared for all scenarios related to the situation with Iran.

5. No quick path to a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, says Rubio.

6. Trump says Saudi Arabia's accession to the Abraham Accords is a prerequisite for approval of the U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement.

7. The European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged.

8. OPEC+ may raise its oil production target again starting in September.

Details

Trump Says He Is Close to Deciding on a "Large-Scale Strike" Against Iran

U.S. President Donald Trump said he is seriously considering launching another large-scale military operation against Iran, including strikes that would be more intense than those carried out during "Operation Epic Wrath." Trump acknowledged that such a decision would have consequences but stressed that he has not yet made a final decision. He did not provide a timeline for when the decision would be made.

Meanwhile, two U.S. officials confirmed that no orders have been issued and no new directives have been given to the military. Trump stated, "I am considering a large-scale attack unlike anything before. I am close to making a decision, and we are fully prepared." He also suggested that if Israel participates in the operation, it could face consequences, implying that Iran may retaliate against Israel.

United States Announces New Tariff Measures Effective July 24

On July 23, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced new tariff measures under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Citing concerns over "forced labor," the United States will impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from dozens of countries and regions, replacing the global import tariffs that are set to expire. The new tariffs will take effect on July 24 (U.S. Eastern Time).

Iraq Will Not Allow Its Territory to Be Used for Actions Threatening Iran

According to a statement issued on July 23 by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Office, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani visited Iran and held talks in Tehran with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Al-Sudani said the security of Iraq and Iran is closely interconnected and stressed that Iraq will never allow its territory to be used as a launching point for actions threatening Iran. Pezeshkian stated that security and stability are essential to the continued development of bilateral relations.

Israel Says It Is Fully Prepared for All Scenarios Related to Iran

According to Israeli sources on July 23, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel is fully prepared for every possible scenario as tensions with Iran continue to escalate.

Katz reportedly convened an emergency security assessment at the Ministry of Defense with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and other senior military officials. At the conclusion of the meeting, Katz issued a stern warning to Iran, saying that any form of attack against Israel would be met with a devastating response.

No Quick Path to a Russia-Ukraine Peace Agreement, Says Rubio

Speaking in Manila, the Philippines, on July 23, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there is currently no quick path toward reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Rubio told reporters that the challenge lies in finding an outcome acceptable to both sides. "We have tried before, and we will continue trying to see whether a middle ground acceptable to both parties can be found," he said.

On military assistance, Rubio stated that U.S. support for Ukraine will remain unchanged, with Washington continuing to provide weapons through the NATO framework.

Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on July 23 that all parties had agreed to maintain diplomatic contacts, describing this as a positive development, while cautioning against excessive optimism regarding a rapid resolution of the conflict.

According to Russian sources, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated during talks with U.S. officials in Manila that Russia remains willing to pursue a political and diplomatic settlement.

Trump Says Saudi Arabia's Accession to the Abraham Accords Is a Prerequisite for the U.S.-Saudi Civilian Nuclear Agreement

On July 23 local time, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement currently being negotiated between the U.S. Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia will be approved only if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords.

Trump emphasized that the agreement would not involve uranium enrichment and would be strictly limited to civilian, non-military purposes. He noted that countries such as Iran and the United Arab Emirates already possess similar civilian nuclear facilities.

Trump reiterated that the United States supports the peaceful use of nuclear energy and stated that the U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement is entirely contingent upon Saudi Arabia joining the widely recognized and successful Abraham Accords.

European Central Bank Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.25%, the main refinancing rate at 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.65%.

The ECB said it decided to keep rates unchanged while awaiting more data to assess whether inflationary pressures arising from the Iran conflict will require further monetary tightening. Markets currently expect the ECB, following its June rate hike, to raise rates by another 25 basis points in September.

The ECB reiterated that it does not pre-commit to a particular policy path and will continue to make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis based on incoming data.

In its statement, the Governing Council noted that uncertainty remains elevated and that the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to materialize. Policymakers said they are closely monitoring the magnitude and persistence of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects, while emphasizing that the ECB remains well positioned to respond to evolving conditions.

OPEC+ May Raise Oil Production Targets Again Starting in September

According to three sources, the OPEC+ alliance is likely to approve another increase in oil production targets starting in September at its August 2 meeting, despite the renewed Iran conflict making it more difficult for some members to boost output.

The sources told Reuters that the alliance's seven core producers are expected to increase the September production target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day, matching the increases implemented from June through August.

Today's Focus

15:15 (UTC+8) France July Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)

15:30 (UTC+8) Germany July Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)

16:00 (UTC+8) Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)

16:30 (UTC+8) UK July Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)

21:45 (UTC+8) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, July)

22:00 (UTC+8) U.S. New Home Sales (Annualized, June)

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