U.S.-Iran Talks to Resume This Week, OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Output from August

Daily News

Summary:

U.S. and Iran will resume talks in Pakistan this week; OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production quotas starting in August...

Highlights

1. U.S. and Iran to resume talks in Pakistan this week

2. Peskov: Russia remains open to peace talks and expects U.S. mediation

3. OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production quotas from August

4. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops sharply as multiple vessels turn back, highlighting Iran's control

5. Moulin: The ECB is now in a more comfortable position following the rate hike

6. Japan records average wage growth above 5% for the third consecutive year

Details

U.S. and Iran to Resume Talks in Pakistan This Week

A new round of talks between the United States and Iran is scheduled to take place in Pakistan on July 11. The discussions are expected to focus on three key issues: U.S. sanctions on Iran, Iran's frozen assets, and its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) warned, citing the latest satellite imagery from late June 2026, that Iran continues construction at an underground facility inside Pickaxe Mountain in the Zagros Mountains.

ISIS Senior Researcher Spencer Faragasso said construction at the site has progressed steadily since 2020 and is large enough to accommodate a uranium enrichment facility. He described the project as Iran's hedge against the possible failure of diplomatic negotiations, allowing Tehran to maintain a nearly completed nuclear facility if diplomacy collapses.

Satellite images also show that the entrances, personnel access points, and vehicle routes to the damaged enrichment halls at the Natanz nuclear facility have not been repaired, while the power infrastructure remains inoperable.

At the Pickaxe Mountain site, vehicle activity has been observed near the western tunnel entrance, suggesting ongoing underground construction and reinforcement work. The eastern entrance has been partially backfilled with soil to restrict vehicle access. According to ISIS, under the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, Iran is expected to maintain the status quo of its nuclear program and refrain from construction at any nuclear-related facility, including Pickaxe Mountain. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not yet been granted access to inspect the site.

Peskov: Russia Remains Open to Peace Talks and Expects U.S. Mediation

On July 5, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a televised interview that worsening conditions on the front line have prompted Ukrainian forces to intensify attacks on Russian infrastructure. He stated that Russian forces are making tangible progress in establishing a security buffer zone along the border and continue advancing as planned in the area of the special military operation.

Peskov added that the European Union's transformation into a military-political bloc has further complicated the Ukraine situation. Russia hopes the EU will not undermine prospects for peace negotiations.

He also emphasized that Russia remains open to peace talks and expects the United States to play a mediating role. Moscow continues to welcome visits by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. Although neither has visited Russia for some time, communication between Moscow and Washington continues through existing channels.

OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Production Quotas from August

On July 5, OPEC announced that seven OPEC+ member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held an online meeting to review global market conditions and prospects.

The participating countries agreed to raise their collective oil production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. They also agreed to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, compliance, and compensation mechanisms.

In addition, following the peace agreement between the United States and Iran, Gulf producers have resumed oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a sharp increase in OPEC crude output in June, although production remains about 28% below pre-conflict levels.

According to the survey, OPEC's daily production increased by 2.34 million barrels to 18.75 million barrels per day, with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran recording the largest gains. Despite the increase in supply, weak demand from China, the world's largest oil importer, has contributed to signs of oversupply, leading to a noticeable decline in international crude oil prices in recent days.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Drops Sharply as Multiple Vessels Turn Back

According to industry reports, the number of vessels transiting the Omani shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply on Sunday. The decline followed multiple vessels making abrupt U-turns while exiting the strait via the same route on Saturday, underscoring Iran's continued tightening of control over the strategic waterway.

One product tanker that turned back on Saturday appeared to make another attempt and has passed the northern tip of Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Another product tanker followed the same route and publicly declared its navigation intentions, with its position now being broadcast from the Gulf of Oman. Several other vessels crossed the strait in "dark mode," with one Suezmax crude tanker reappearing in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday after last transmitting its position in the Persian Gulf on Saturday.

Between Friday and Saturday, at least eight vessels abruptly turned around while transiting the Omani route, with four later rerouting through the Iranian shipping lane. Although no official explanation has been provided, Iran has repeatedly stated that vessels may only transit through routes it has designated and authorized.

According to Kpler data, 19 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions on Saturday, but only one publicly declared its intention to use the Omani route inbound, compared with 13 vessels using that route on Friday.

Moulin: ECB Is in a More Comfortable Position After Rate Hike

François Moulin, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and Governor of the Banque de France, said on Friday that the ECB is now in a more comfortable position following last month's interest rate hike, while falling oil prices are easing inflationary pressures across the euro area.

He noted that it is still too early to determine what action the ECB may take at its July and September meetings, but policymakers have made it clear that "we have not entered a new rate-hiking cycle."

"We do not like to provide forward guidance, so we will make decisions when the time comes," Moulin said. "At this stage, we believe we are in a good position, with risks broadly balanced."

Japan Records Wage Growth Above 5% for a Third Straight Year

Japan's largest labor union federation, Rengo, announced on Friday that Japanese companies agreed to an average wage increase of 5.01% during this year's annual "Shunto" spring wage negotiations, marking the third consecutive year that average wage growth has exceeded 5%.

According to Rengo's final survey covering more than 5,300 member unions, the average monthly wage increase reached ¥16,400 (approximately US$102). The federation described the outcome as another step toward making sustained wage growth a permanent feature of Japanese society.

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