US-Iran Talks Make Progress; Trump Says Further Military Action Against Iran May Not Be Necessary

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Summary:

Progress has been made in US-Iran nuclear talks; Trump says there may be no need for further military action against Iran...

Headlines

1. Trump Says Further Military Action Against Iran May Not Be Necessary

2. Trump Says US Will Continue Its Blockade of Iran and “Iron Gate” Task Force Operations

3. US Federal Budget Deficit Reaches $2.0 Trillion in Fiscal Year 2026

4. Progress Made in US-Iran Nuclear Talks

5. Barkin: Inflation Risks Remain Dominant; Policy Adjustments Should Be Made Cautiously

6. Goolsbee: AI Data Center Construction Is Adding to Excess Demand; Inflation Remains the Top Concern

7. New York Fed: Americans Are Growing Increasingly Concerned About Future Unemployment

Detailed

Trump Says Further Military Action Against Iran May Not Be Necessary

On the afternoon of November 9, local time, US President Donald Trump said at a White House press conference that the United States did not appear to need to take military action against Iran at the moment. However, he said, “We’re fully prepared, and we can act at any moment if anything changes. I think this conflict will end very soon.”

Trump Says US Will Continue Its Blockade of Iran and “Iron Gate” Task Force Operations

On November 9, local time, US President Donald Trump said in a post on social media that he had a very good conversation with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, during which they held in-depth discussions on issues related to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Most importantly, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and other countries favored maintaining the status quo: continuing the largest naval blockade in history and carrying out the new “Iron Gate” task force operation. Trump said all parties agreed that Iran must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons.

US Federal Budget Deficit Reaches $2.0 Trillion in Fiscal Year 2026

On November 9, local time, the US Treasury Department released data showing that the federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion in fiscal year 2026, which ended on September 30. This was $217 billion, or 12%, higher than the deficit in the previous fiscal year.

Both federal revenue and spending increased from fiscal year 2025. Revenue rose 3%, or $169 billion, while spending increased 6%, or $386 billion.

The federal deficit in fiscal year 2026 was equivalent to 6.2% of gross domestic product (GDP), up from 5.8% in fiscal year 2025.

In fiscal year 2026, the total federal debt held by the public reached 100% of GDP, its highest level since 1946 and above the 99.0% recorded at the end of fiscal year 2025.

Progress Made in US-Iran Nuclear Talks

Saudi Al Arabiya TV, citing Arab sources, reported that proposals put forward by Qatar and Pakistan had restarted substantive negotiations between the United States and Iran. The two sides were expected to reach an initial agreement on Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

According to the sources, Washington would allow Iran to enrich uranium domestically to a purity level of 3.67%, a proposal Tehran had agreed to. Meanwhile, the United States is demanding that Iran reduce the enrichment level of its existing 60%-enriched uranium. The two sides are considering involving a third country to help address Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.

The two sides are also arranging discussions on the return of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to Iran, although the scope of their specific duties has yet to be clarified.

The sources further said that under the proposed framework, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened immediately and the naval blockade lifted. The United States would also release $6 billion to $9 billion in Iranian assets after an agreement is reached.

Barkin: Inflation Risks Remain Dominant; Policy Adjustments Should Be Made Cautiously

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in a speech on Monday that inflation had remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for nearly six consecutive years. Risks to the Fed’s dual mandate were currently concentrated on the inflation side.

Businesses continued to face broad-based cost increases and planned to pass some of those costs on to consumers. With demand remaining strong and inflation persistently elevated, the direction of monetary policy tightening was clear, but it still needed to proceed cautiously.

Barkin also warned that if AI technology developed more slowly than expected, it could weigh on business investment, stock prices and consumption. Conversely, if AI advanced faster than expected, it could also lead to more jobs being displaced.

Goolsbee: AI Data Center Construction Is Adding to Excess Demand; Inflation Remains the Top Concern

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a speech on Monday that the construction of AI data centers was showing signs of traditional demand overheating. Meanwhile, rising energy prices were spreading to broader sectors, including services, indicating that inflationary pressures were becoming more widespread.

He noted that central banks typically needed to respond forcefully to an overheating economy. Goolsbee said the US labor market and economic growth were broadly stable, and that excessively high inflation remained the economy’s biggest concern.

New York Fed: Americans Are Growing Increasingly Concerned About Future Unemployment

A survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday showed that Americans were becoming more concerned about the labor market outlook.

The New York Fed’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations found that respondents’ perceived probability of being unemployed in one year rose by 0.4 percentage points to 13.9%, the highest level since April 2020, during the early turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Respondents believed the likelihood of involuntary job loss had increased, although the expected probability remained relatively low. At the same time, they thought their chances of finding a new job if unemployed had improved.

Despite their pessimism about the labor market outlook, respondents expected prices to remain stable in the future, although the anticipated rate of increase was still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

The survey showed that US one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.91% in October, the highest since May 2023 and above the previous reading of 3.9%.

Over the next year, consumers expected gasoline prices to rise by 4.2%, food prices by 5.5%, medical costs by 9.3%, college tuition by 7.6% and rents by 7.7%.

The share of consumers expecting to be unable to make the minimum debt payment over the next three months rose to 13.78%, the highest since December 2025 and above the previous month’s 12.2%.

Economic Calendar

14:30 (UTC+8) France’s Q3 ILO Unemployment Rate

17:00 (UTC+8) Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks

21:30 (UTC+8) US October CPI

22:00 (UTC+8) ECB Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone speaks

22:35 (UTC+8) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks

00:45 (UTC+8) ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks

01:00 (UTC+8) EIA releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook

01:30 (UTC+8) ECB Governing Council Member Pablo Hernández de Cos speaks

02:30 (UTC+8) Bank of Canada releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Summary

02:30 (UTC+8) Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks

02:30 (UTC+8) Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks

04:30 (UTC+8) Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks

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US-Iran Talks Make Progress; Trump Says Further Military Action Against Iran May Not Be Necessary

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