U.S.-Iran Standoff Intensifies; Navigation Through the Strait of Hormuz Reaches Deadlock

Daily News

Summary:

Trump: No timetable for when Iran will return to negotiations; Iran states the Strait of Hormuz will not open unless the U.S. accepts relevant conditions...

【Highlights】

1. Trump: No timetable for when Iran will return to negotiations

2. Iranian official: Inspection of any attacked nuclear facilities requires Iranian Parliament's approval

3. Iran unable to import gasoline due to U.S. naval blockade

4. Iran states the Strait of Hormuz will not open unless the U.S. accepts relevant conditions

5. U.S. July PCE price index rises 3.7%; subsequent statistical methodology changes may push figures down

6. U.S. Q2 GDP growth rate maintained at 1.5%, with stronger performance in consumption and investment

7. Iran and Oman reach agreement on revenue distribution from the Strait of Hormuz

【Details】

Trump: No timetable for when Iran will return to negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump stated in an interview with Qatar's Al Jazeera on August 26 that he has no timetable for when Iran is expected to return to negotiations and is in no rush. "We are winning very big. They [Iran] are facing severe inflation, and their economy is collapsing." When asked whether economic measures are more effective than military strikes, Trump said, "I think both are effective."

Iranian official: Inspection of any attacked nuclear facilities requires Iranian Parliament's approval

On August 26, local time, Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, stated that any International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of nuclear facilities that have suffered military attacks must receive legal approval from the Iranian Parliament and be governed by corresponding regulations. He noted that all Iranian nuclear facilities subjected to military attacks had previously been registered with and inspected by the IAEA. The agency's failure to condemn these attacks has called its capacity and independence into question. The U.S. and Israel are pressing the agency to visit damaged Iranian nuclear sites to assess the outcome of their military strikes. Iran will not accept the agency's request to inspect these facilities until the security regulations stipulated by Iranian parliamentary law are established.

Iran unable to import gasoline due to U.S. naval blockade

Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Jafar Qaempanah stated that Iran is unable to import gasoline due to the U.S. naval blockade, warning that the current fuel situation is unsustainable. "Continuing like this is simply unworkable." Qaempanah noted that domestic gasoline production is insufficient and, under the U.S. naval blockade, Iran cannot import gasoline. He added that military force should be leveraged to advance the implementation of the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding. Qaempanah mentioned that, under the guidance of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Iran and Oman reached a joint statement on Tuesday requiring vessels to use specified routes under the memorandum and refrain from crossing Oman's southern maritime boundary.

Iran states the Strait of Hormuz will not open unless the U.S. accepts relevant conditions

On August 26, local time, a spokesperson for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and Oman. About a month ago, Iran and Oman launched negotiations and reached a mutually acceptable agreement. The spokesperson said that during these talks, the parties agreed on shares of the Strait of Hormuz waters and their respective revenue entitlements. U.S. obstruction in this matter has delayed the process. If the U.S. ceases its obstruction and returns to an understanding, Iran can open the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the agreed understanding; therefore, the U.S. must accept Iran's conditions. If the U.S. does not accept Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not open under any circumstances. The spokesperson also stated that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control, and there are no enemy warships inside the Persian Gulf. All enemy warships are positioned at least 400 kilometers away from the Strait of Hormuz, and no vessel can transit the strait without Iranian permission.

U.S. July PCE price index rises 3.7%; subsequent statistical methodology changes may push figures down

The U.S. PCE price index for July rose 0.2% month-on-month (expected 0.1%) and 3.7% year-on-year (expected 3.6%, previous 3.7%). During the period, the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations, and 3.3% year-on-year, inline with expectations and the previous reading. U.S. personal spending in July grew 0.2% month-on-month (expected 0.1%), while personal income increased 0.4% month-on-month (expected 0.2%). The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases expanded in July and remain above the Fed's target range. PCE figures typically align closely with market expectations because economists can utilize related sub-components from the CPI and PPI released earlier in the month to forecast PCE data with high precision. Some economists warned that rising prices for portfolio management services within PPI sub-components might push up last month's core PCE data. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to adopt a new statistical methodology for these sub-components, expected to take effect next month, which is anticipated to alleviate upward pressure on core PCE.

U.S. Q2 GDP growth rate maintained at 1.5%, with stronger performance in consumption and investment

The U.S. second-quarter economic growth rate remained unrevised, still estimated to have expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5%. However, details indicated that consumer spending and business investment were both stronger than initially reported. Second-estimate data released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed inflation-adjusted annualized GDP growth at 1.5%, compared to 2.1% in Q1. Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in Q2, up from the initial estimate of 3.2%. Non-residential fixed investment surged 8.5% annualized. A narrower gauge of underlying demand—final sales to private domestic purchasers—grew a revised 4.2% in Q2, marking the strongest gain in over three years, up from the initial 3.9% estimate. This metric excludes net exports, inventories, and government spending. Government spending decreased by an annualized 1% in Q2, reflecting a sharp drop in non-defense outlays.

Iran and Oman reach agreement on revenue distribution from the Strait of Hormuz

Iran stated that it has reached an agreement with Oman on revenue distribution from the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are currently pushing for a broader agreement regarding the management of this critical waterway. According to Iran's official news agency Sepah News, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that the two countries have agreed on their respective territorial shares in the strait's waters and the allocation ratio for associated revenues. "We have achieved a mutually acceptable result." A joint statement issued Tuesday by the Foreign Ministries of Iran and Oman noted that both sides discussed a temporary framework aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but did not announce a final agreement or mention transit fees. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has not yet confirmed this latest claim, and Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not commented on the news.

[Key Events Today]

14:00 (UTC+8) Germany September GfK Consumer Climate Index

TBD (UTC+8) Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (August 27–29)

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