US-Iran Diplomatic Stalemate Deepens; Strong Nonfarm Payrolls Boost the Dollar

Daily News

Summary:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says indirect talks have yielded no results and Iran’s demands are unacceptable; the US added 165,000 jobs in October...

Headlines

1. US Forms “Iron Gate Task Force” to Expand Restrictions on Overland Trade with Iran

2. Israeli Defense Minister Says Mission Against Iran Is Not Yet Complete

3. Protests Erupt in France for the Fourth Consecutive Weekend

4. Iran Lifts Restrictions on Missile Range

5. Rubio Says Indirect Talks Have Made No Progress and Iran’s Demands Are Unacceptable

6. US Adds 165,000 Jobs in October; Dollar Posts Biggest One-Day Gain in Nearly Five Months

7. University of Michigan’s Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index Rises Unexpectedly in November

8. Pill: No Predetermined Path for Interest Rates Next Year

Detailed

US Forms “Iron Gate Task Force” to Expand Restrictions on Overland Trade with Iran

After months of imposing a naval blockade, the US military is preparing to establish a special task force to further restrict Iran’s transportation of advanced weapons systems and other sanctioned goods across its land borders and through the Caspian Sea.

A statement showed that US Central Command planned to announce the task force later on Saturday. No previous reports had disclosed the plan. The task force, named “Iron Gate,” will be based in Tampa, Florida, and will coordinate its operations with other US government agencies.

In addition to monitoring weapons shipments, the task force will focus on dual-use goods and sources of illicit revenue. In the statement, US Central Command Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said that closer coordination between CENTCOM and its US interagency partners would further undermine Iran’s ability to finance terrorism, rebuild weapons factories and replenish its arsenal.

CENTCOM estimates that its naval blockade has prevented Iran from exporting more than $25 billion worth of crude oil.

Israeli Defense Minister Says Mission Against Iran Is Not Yet Complete

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on the 8th, during a ceremony commemorating fallen soldiers, that Israel’s mission against Iran was not yet complete. He said Iran was attempting to resume its pursuit of nuclear weapons and engaging in other activities that posed serious threats to Israel’s security. Israel could not accept these actions and would take the necessary steps to eliminate threats preemptively.

Katz provided no evidence of the alleged threats and did not specify what actions Israel might take.

The Israeli military will not withdraw from the Gaza Strip or from parts of Lebanon and Syria that it occupies. Katz warned that Hezbollah would face severe strikes if it joined forces with Iran to attack Israel.

He called on Israelis to stand united when national security is under threat. On the 7th, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the opposition to form a national unity government with Likud and its political allies.

Protests Erupt in France for the Fourth Consecutive Weekend

On November 7, demonstrations against rising living costs and shrinking public services took place in several parts of France for the fourth consecutive weekend.

Although turnout was lower than in previous weeks, some protesters clashed with police in Paris. Some threw objects at security personnel and set off homemade fireworks, prompting police to use tear gas. Others set fire to trash bins and attacked police officers.

After nightfall, some demonstrators marched toward Place de la Bastille in Paris.

France’s Interior Ministry said 146,000 people took part in demonstrations nationwide, including 46,000 in Paris. Trade unions, however, put the figures at 250,000 nationwide and 75,000 in Paris.

The turnout was lower than during the previous three weekends. However, on November 5, the General Confederation of Labour (CGT) had just organized a large-scale strike and protest.

Iran Lifts Restrictions on Missile Range

As the US military formed a task force to prevent Iran from transporting weapons across borders, a spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on the 7th that Iran had lifted restrictions on its missile range and would strike at locations its enemies did not expect.

The spokesperson warned that if the United States made another miscalculation, Iran’s next strike would be even more severe.

On the same day, US Central Command announced that it had ordered the formation of a task force to prevent Iran from transporting advanced weapons and other materials across borders.

Regarding the US-Iran ceasefire process, the latest reports indicated that US Vice President JD Vance had begun working behind the scenes to push for a new agreement with Iran.

On the evening of the 7th, loud sounds resembling explosions were reported in several parts of Iran. The cause and details remained unclear.

Rubio Says Indirect Talks Have Made No Progress and Iran’s Demands Are Unacceptable

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that talks conducted through intermediaries had made no progress. He described Iran’s demands as completely unacceptable, outrageous, and, in some cases, absurd and laughable.

Rubio said that diplomatic solutions sometimes did not work. However, if there was still an opportunity, the United States would continue to pursue a diplomatic resolution.

US Adds 165,000 Jobs in October; Dollar Posts Biggest One-Day Gain in Nearly Five Months

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, far exceeding expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

The stronger-than-expected employment data pushed the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December to nearly 80%. The US Dollar Index rose 0.71% to 102.31, marking its biggest one-day gain since June 17. The euro, pound and yen fell 0.72%, 0.74% and 0.5%, respectively, against the dollar.

US Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.85% and the 2-year yield reaching 4.52%.

Fed officials John Williams, Alberto Musalem and Mary Daly all stressed that inflationary pressures remained. Daly said the Fed might still need to raise rates further.

University of Michigan’s Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index Rises Unexpectedly in November

The University of Michigan reported that its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 51.0 in November from 48.0 in October, contrary to market expectations that it would remain unchanged. The forecast was compiled by Bloomberg.

The University of Michigan said sentiment among consumers with low and middle levels of wealth improved following a relatively volatile period in the stock market. However, sentiment among consumers with the largest stock portfolios fell by 5%.

Respondents expected inflation to reach 4.3% over the next year, down from 4.7% in October. Five-year inflation expectations declined to 3.4% from 3.5%.

Inflation concerns nevertheless remained. The University of Michigan said approximately 57% of respondents spontaneously mentioned that high prices were eroding their standard of living, the highest share since May and above the 46% recorded in February, before the Iran conflict.

Pill: No Predetermined Path for Interest Rates Next Year

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said there was no predetermined path for interest rates next year, given uncertainty over whether second-round effects of inflation would take hold.

At a briefing following the Bank of England’s rate decision, Pill said that if the economy stagnated, interest rates could remain unchanged next year or even be cut. The key point, he said, was that he did not believe there was a predetermined path of rate increases from next spring onward.

“I don’t think anything is set in stone at the moment, because the path of interest rates after the spring will depend on how the data evolve.”

Pill said pressure on corporate profit margins next year, as well as how businesses adjusted their pricing, would be important indicators for the Bank of England to monitor.

Economic Calendar

17:30 (UTC+8) Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence Index

23:00 (UTC+8) US September Wholesale Sales, MoM

23:00 (UTC+8) Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks

00:00 (UTC+8) ECB Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone speaks

01:15 (UTC+8) Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks

01:25 (UTC+8) Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on central bank independence

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US-Iran Diplomatic Stalemate Deepens; Strong Nonfarm Payrolls Boost the Dollar

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