US stock market outlook for 2026: earnings and Fed support point higher

The US 500 may enter a correction, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US core PCE came in at 2.8% year-on-year
• Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The published core PCE figure came in at 2.8% year-on-year, below the forecast of 2.9% and the previous reading of 2.9%. For the market, this is an important signal, as the core PCE remains the Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge. The decline shows that inflationary pressure continues to ease, reducing the need for the Fed to maintain a tight monetary stance and increasing the likelihood of a more dovish rate path in the coming months.

For the US 500, such data is a moderately positive factor. The market reaction is likely to tilt upwards, as expectations of further easing in inflation reduce uncertainty around the Fed's decisions. However, the rise is unlikely to be sharp: the figure declined by only 0.1 percentage point, and inflation is already close to the range the Fed considers sustainable.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has formed a resistance level at 6,895.0 and a support level at 6,790.0. The uptrend is slowing as the index approaches a new all-time high, with a short-term correction likely. If the price fails to break below the support level, the uptrend will remain intact, with a potential upside target around 6,985.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 6,790.0 support level could send the index down to 6,710.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 6,895.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 6,985.0

US 500 technical analysis for 9 December 2025

Summary

The core PCE price index declined to 2.8%, below the forecast and the previous reading, indicating easing inflation and reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve. The US stock market receives a moderately positive signal: bond yields may fall, and interest in risk assets may increase. For the US 500 index, this creates conditions for further growth, although the reaction may be restrained. A short-term correction within the broader uptrend also cannot be ruled out. From a technical perspective, the US 500 could rise towards 6,950.0.

Source: RoboForex

Three pillars support 2026 case

​Cost discipline preserves profitability

​Sideways trading reflects mixed performance

​AI adoption supports operational efficiency

​ECB easing provides supportive backdrop

​Valuation discount presents opportunity

​Improved conditions support higher path

​Volatility expected to return

​Technical analysis of the DAX 40

Source: ig

Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The strength of the euro is amplifying the deflationary effect of China's export machine, which may end up being the catalyst that could jolt the European Central Bank out of its "good place" and into more interest rate cuts.

The euro is around $1.166, having hit a four-year high of $1.1918 in September and set for a gain of nearly 13% this year, the most since 2017.

EURO MORE EXPENSIVE THAN MEETS THE EYE

The ECB's euro real effective exchange rate - essentially the basket of key trading partner currencies adjusted for inflation - hit a high of 98.68 in September, the most since May 2014. It was at 97.81 in November .

The real effective euro is at its highest levels in over a decade

The nominal rate , which is around 129.96, hit a record 130.87 in September, having risen 5.7% so far in 2025.

The euro nominal effective exchange rate is close to its highest on record

"The euro is a lot more expensive than meets the eye," said Themos Fiotakis, Barclays global head of forex strategy.

"If you look at the euro on a trade-weighted basis, and also against some of its more direct competitors, you'll see that the euro is at historically high levels," he argued, adding that factoring in U.S. tariffs offers a euro rate closer to $1.28.

One of the main drivers of the rise in the trade-weighted euro has been the 7% drop in the Chinese yuan in the offshore market this year .

China is Europe's largest trading partner. The most recent data show the euro zone had a trade deficit of 33 billion euros with China in September, compared with a 22.2-billion euro surplus with the United States, the region's second-largest partner.

ONE OR TWO RATE CUTS STILL POSSIBLE

Goldman Sachs recently delivered its biggest upgrade to China's growth outlook in a decade, saying Beijing's push to flood markets with cheap goods could stoke deflation, particularly in Europe.

Chinese exporters will be looking to expand their footprint in markets other than the United States and, given the country's grip on supply of critical rare earth materials, there may be little room for trade barriers.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in July the central bank can ignore an appreciation of the euro up to $1.20, but it would get "much more complicated" above that level.

"We're seeing only limited pass-through from the exchange rate so far, as margins are still being rebuilt—and that process may not be complete yet," said Simon Wells, chief European economist at HSBC.

"If the trade-weighted euro were to appreciate sharply from here, say by around 5%, that could well trigger further policy easing," he added, noting that in this case there would likely be more than one cut.

ECB official Martin Kocher said in September the exchange rate wasn't a risk, but further euro appreciation could "become problematic" for exporters, while Martins Kazaks recently said the exchange rate and Chinese trade flows were key risks to the central bank's policy outlook.

"What I'm telling clients is that our base case remains that rates will be unchanged, but the likelihood that the ECB will cut one or two more times between now and the summer of next year is still pretty high," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research and chief euro zone economist at ING.

"The China story could be the tipping factor to push the ECB into rate cuts."

BETS ON ECB RATES SENSITIVE TO TRADE TENSIONS

Markets show traders expect the ECB to be firmly on hold until at least March 2027. But tariffs and fears of a global trade war have seen that pricing come back from a low in April of 1.55%, when Trump slapped tariffs on all major trading partners.

Strategists say the outlook for the euro will remain dominated by the difference between euro zone and U.S. interest rates. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a series of cuts next year that could weigh on the dollar and, in turn, boost the euro.

"Lower rates and a weaker dollar go hand in hand," said Andreas Koenig, head of global currency management at Amundi Asset Management, arguing that Trump will influence the Fed toward more easing ahead of mid-term elections.

"I think that the first sequence is a lower dollar, then an accelerating (U.S.) economy."

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

President Donald Trump said that Russia is in a stronger military position in its war with Ukraine and chided European leaders for what he characterized as excessive dialog with scant results.

Trump made the comments in a wide-ranging interview with Politico published early Tuesday. Asked whether Ukraine has lost the war, Trump pointed to the swaths of land that Russia's military has occupied in the country.

"Russia has the upper hand. And they always did. They're much bigger and stronger in that sense. I give the people of Ukraine and the military of Ukraine tremendous credit for the bravery and the fighting all of that. But at some point size will win, generally, and this is a massive size," Trump said.

He alluded to the magnitude of Russia's military as a likely inevitability to the country prevailing in the conflict.

"They lost territory long before I got here. They lost a whole strip of sea front a big sea front. They lost a lot of land and its very good land that they lost. You certainly wouldn't say that its a victory," the US president said.

Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine came at an immense economic and human cost with more than 1.5 million troops killed or wounded on both sides, according to western estimates. Still, almost four years since starting his full-scale invasion Russia's Vladimir Putin has failed to take full control of the entire eastern region of Donbas in a war that he meant to end in a few days.

In recent weeks, the US has intensified efforts to forge a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Earlier this week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said negotiators remain divided over territory. There also needs to be further discussion on US security guarantees, he said.

"Well, he's gonna have to get on the ball and start accepting things. You know, when you're losing, 'cause he's losing," Trump said in the Politico interview.

The US president criticized Europe on multiple fronts, saying that the countries haven't done an adequate job in finding peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Trump deepened criticism of the continent that was outlined in a national security report he signed last week, along cultural lines.

"They talk too much. And they're not producing. We're talking about Ukraine. They talk but they don't produce. And the war just keeps going on and on," Trump said.

Earlier Tuesday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said elements of a new US national security strategy are unacceptable to Europe, advising Trump to refrain from a go-it-alone approach.

"It confirms my assessment that we in Europe, and therefore also in Germany, must become much more independent from the US in terms of security policy," Merz said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

JPY the weakest currency today

Source: investinglive