US Midterm Elections Take Place Today as US-Iran Talks Make No Substantive Breakthrough

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Summary:

There has been no new progress in communications between Iran and the United States; US midterm elections are taking place today...

Headlines

1. No new progress in communications between Iran and the United States

2. IMO: Ships are still advised against transiting the Strait of Hormuz

3. Iranian Foreign Minister: Indirect talks with the US have been “very intensive”

4. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude inventories fall to their lowest level since 1982

5. US midterm elections take place today as uncertainty remains over whether Washington and Tehran will negotiate or resume hostilities

6. US manufacturing expansion accelerates, with production reaching its strongest level in five years

Detailed

No New Progress in Communications Between Iran and the United States

People familiar with the matter said that Iran and the United States had been exchanging routine messages through intermediaries, with no new progress in this regard. Iran will take no further action or steps until the United States meets the conditions it has set.

IMO: Ships Are Still Advised Against Transiting the Strait of Hormuz

International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said in London on November 2 that the organization could not confirm whether mines had been cleared from the traffic separation scheme (TSS) in the Strait of Hormuz. As the safety of passage could not be guaranteed, ships were still advised against transiting the strait.

Iran has repeatedly claimed recently that some vessels struck mines after entering unauthorized routes. The US Central Command, meanwhile, has publicly denied these claims, stating that mines had been cleared from the international shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.

At a press conference held at IMO headquarters on November 2, Dominguez was asked by a Xinhua News Agency reporter about the threat posed by mines. He said: “I have not received any confirmation that mines have been cleared from the traffic separation scheme... This is also why we are advising against anyone attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. I have consistently called on ships to stay away from the area.”

He added that several vessels had recently been struck. However, investigations have been difficult to conduct during the conflict, making it impossible to determine whether some incidents were caused by mines, drones or missiles. He warned that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remained unsafe.

The IMO recorded approximately 30 attacks on ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz in October, making it one of the months with the highest number of such incidents on record. Some of the attacks also resulted in oil spills or other forms of pollution.

Nearly 400 vessels carrying approximately 6,000 seafarers are currently stranded in the Gulf region. The IMO is coordinating with regional countries and organizations such as the International Transport Workers' Federation to provide seafarers with supplies, medical assistance and support in contacting their families.

Iranian Foreign Minister: Indirect Talks with the US Have Been “Very Intensive”

According to a November 2 report by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview that indirect talks between Iran and the United States, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, had been “very intensive,” and that Tehran had put forward its conditions.

Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened only if Iran's conditions were accepted. Otherwise, the current situation would persist. He added that Iran was willing to engage if the United States chose genuine diplomacy. However, if Washington attempted to deceive Iran or launch military action, it would face a more severe and heavier response than before.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Inventories Fall to Their Lowest Level Since 1982

According to data from the US Department of Energy, crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 282.2 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982.

The recent decline in inventories is part of an agreement to release 172 million barrels of crude oil. The US government said last week that oil companies had agreed to borrow approximately 40 million barrels from the SPR. This represents the final tranche of the US contribution to a global agreement aimed at curbing fuel prices. The agreement was reached after the United States and Israel went to war with Iran.

US Midterm Elections Take Place Today as Uncertainty Remains Over Whether Washington and Tehran Will Negotiate or Resume Hostilities

On November 2 local time, indirect talks between Iran and the United States continued. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that indirect talks with Washington had been “very intensive.” However, he stressed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was conditional on the United States accepting Iran's terms.

US President Donald Trump said an agreement with Iran was possible and that he was in no hurry to decide whether to resume military operations against the country. US Vice President JD Vance also said the two sides had made some progress and expressed optimism about the prospects for a deal.

While Washington has sent positive signals, Tehran continues to insist on its own negotiating conditions. Meanwhile, US midterm elections enter voting day on November 3 local time, with the direction of US-Iran relations after the election drawing considerable attention.

US Manufacturing Expansion Accelerates, with Production at Its Strongest Level in Five Years

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index rose by 1 point to 55.5 in October, its second-highest reading in more than four years and above market expectations. The production index reached its highest level since late 2021, while the new orders index climbed to its highest level since July and remained in expansion territory.

Manufacturers also hired more workers. Factory employment increased for a fourth consecutive month in October, marking its longest growth streak since early 2022.

The report noted that factories were benefiting from strong economic growth, consumer demand and solid business investment. This was largely driven by corporate spending on data centers, artificial intelligence, industrial equipment and other machinery.

Economic Calendar

11:30 (JUTC+8) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

12:30 (JUTC+8) RBA Governor Michele Bullock Holds a Monetary Policy Press Conference

15:00 (UTC+8) ECB Governing Council Member Radev Speaks

15:30 (UTC+8) Switzerland October CPI MoM

16:00 (UTC+8) ECB Governing Council Members Kocher and Dolenc Speak

18:00 (UTC+8) ECB Governing Council Member Moulin Speaks

22:00 (UTC+8) ECB Governing Council Member Moulin Speaks

23:00 (UTC+8) US September JOLTS Job Openings

Time TBA — 2026 US Midterm Elections

Time TBA — Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers Testify Before a House of Commons Committee

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US Midterm Elections Take Place Today as US-Iran Talks Make No Substantive Breakthrough

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