Us Lng Plants Imported Cargoes During Winter Storm As Natural Gas Prices Hit Records

Investing.com-- Woodside Energy Ltd (ASX:WDS) clocked a weaker revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025, as the Australian energy giant logged lower prices on its oil and gas sales, while production also declined. 

Revenue for the three months to December 31 fell 13% year-on-year to $3.04 billion, Woodside said in a statement. 

This came as the company’s average realized price on its oil and gas sales fell to $57 per barrel of oil equivalent from $63/boe a year ago. 

Woodside’s production during the quarter also declined 5% from a year ago, while oil and gas sales fell 3%. 

Oil prices tumbled nearly 20% through 2025, hit by two-fold concerns over a potential supply glut in 2026 and as markets fretted over worsening global demand amid increased economic uncertainty. 

Woodside forecast softer production volumes in 2026– between 172 to 186 million boe. This compares to 198.8 million boe in 2025. 

“Our 2026 volume guidance… reflects planned down time at Pluto as we prepare the facility to begin processing Scarborough gas and for first LNG cargo in Q4 2026,” Woodside Acting CEO Liz Westcott said in a statement. 

Capital expenditure is expected between $4 billion and $5 billion, as the company takes its Scarborough Energy project to completion and also builds out its Louisiana LNG project. Woodside had sold down several stakes in Louisiana LNG through 2025, as it sought more working capital and investment for the project. 

Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has downgraded Kosmos Energy Ltd. to ’CCC’ from ’CCC+’ due to increased likelihood of debt restructuring, assigning a negative outlook.

The rating agency cited elevated restructuring risk despite Kosmos’ recent efforts to reduce near-term maturity pressure through tender offers and refinancing actions. The company plans to use proceeds from secured Nordic notes to fund a tender offer for up to $250 million of its 7.750% senior unsecured notes due 2027, repay borrowings under its reserve-based lending (RBL) facility, and for general corporate purposes.

S&P estimates Kosmos could breach its debt service coverage ratio in March or September 2026 unless it secures additional waivers from RBL lenders. Such a breach would trigger accelerated maturity of its RBL, which had $1.125 billion outstanding as of September 30, 2025.

The company’s RBL agreement requires maintaining a net leverage ratio below 3.5x. In July 2025, Kosmos secured a waiver increasing this threshold to 4.0x for September 2025 and 4.25x for March 2026. As of September 30, 2025, the company’s reported net leverage reached 4.6x.

Kosmos has developed a mitigation plan including reductions in operating expenditures in Ghana, lower administrative costs, potential hedge monetization, and strategic transactions including asset sales. However, S&P believes there is "heightened risk" of the company not fully achieving this plan in time to avoid a covenant breach.

If Kosmos cannot implement its plan or obtain timely waivers, a covenant breach would constitute an event of default, potentially leading to accelerated maturity of outstanding obligations and reduced liquidity. A default under the RBL could also trigger cross-default provisions under other debt instruments.

The company faces substantial debt service requirements in 2026 and 2027, primarily from scheduled amortization under its Gulf of Mexico term loan starting this year and RBL facility amortization beginning in 2027. Given S&P’s expectation of negative free operating cash flow, the agency believes Kosmos may struggle to meet these obligations.

S&P noted that while Kosmos has made progress addressing near-term maturities, these actions haven’t improved its long-term credit profile. The company recently entered a $250 million senior secured term loan to repay its 7.125% senior unsecured notes due April 2026, but faces scheduled amortization estimated at $54 million in 2026, $71 million in both 2027 and 2028, and $54 million in 2029.

Production is expected to increase in 2026, driven by the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project and increased output from Ghana’s Jubilee field, with total net production projected to average 70,000-80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from about 65,000 in 2025.

S&P could lower its rating further if default appears inevitable within six months, or revise it if operating performance improves and free cash flow shortfalls are reduced.

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Investing.com -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded TotalEnergies (EPA:TTEF) stock to Reduce and removed it from its Sector Most Preferred list, citing what it sees as rising vulnerability to a prolonged LNG oversupply cycle, with BP (LON:BP) replacing the French major among its preferred names.

Analyst Bertrand Hodée said TotalEnergies is expected to hold a net long LNG position of around 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2026, widening to about 23 mtpa by 2030, which, in Hodée’s view, leaves the company with the greatest exposure to a potential LNG oversupply, especially if prices slide toward $5 per mbtu.

"In an oversupplied LNG market, a structurally long LNG portfolio cannot escape losses at the molecule level; it can only redistribute, defer, or partially offset them through integration (power) and optionality," Hodée added. 

The analyst tactically adjusted the sum of parts (SOP) valuation based on a Brent oil price assumption of $55 per barrel for 2026, which resulted in a fair value estimate of 52 euros and led the firm to set its target price at the same level.

"With c. 10% downside to our TP, we downgrade the stock from Hold to Reduce," Hodée wrote. 

In contrast, BP was moved onto the Sector Most Preferred list as Hodée highlighted the resilience of its LNG positioning into a downturn. The analyst said BP’s “portfolio is well-positioned for an LNG downturn, with no long positions by 2027,” while its U.S. LNG offtakes are more than offset by upstream gas production, reducing exposure to falling spot prices.

BP’s theoretical long LNG position is expected to decline to zero by 2027, which Hodée sees as “perfect timing,” and the group also benefits from long-term offtake contracts with particularly low oil-linked pricing slopes, supporting cash flow resilience in weaker gas markets.

The changes sit within a broader cautious sector stance, as Kepler continues to warn of an emerging LNG glut and soft energy pricing over the coming years. In its latest sector outlook, the brokerage said LNG supply is expected to surge toward 600 mtpa by 2030, potentially creating a multi-year oversupply from 2028 to 2031.

Meanwhile, Hodée said Asian LNG demand growth faces clear structural limits, including constraints around coal-to-gas switching and infrastructure, which could curb the market’s ability to absorb the wave of new supply.

The analyst said that lower spot prices would likely be required to rebalance global gas markets, prompting him to cut long-term European gas price assumptions and maintain a cautious view on the oil and gas sector.

Investing.com -- Vår Energi said fourth-quarter net production rose 43% from a year earlier, driven by higher oil and gas volumes and the resolution of operational issues at key assets, according to a trading update posted on Tuesday.

The Norwegian oil and gas producer said net output averaged 397,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 7% from the third quarter. 

Full-year production averaged 332,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, within the company’s guided range.

"The operational issues at Johan Castberg and Jotun FPSO reported in December, were resolved early January with production now back at expected levels," the company said.

Oil and natural gas liquids accounted for 71% of fourth-quarter production, with gas making up the remaining 29%. Total production volumes in the quarter reached 36.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, while sales volumes totaled 35.3 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company said "the underlift position is mainly due to timing of LNG liftings in the quarter."

Vår Energi reported an average realized price of $62 per barrel of oil equivalent in the fourth quarter. 

The realized crude oil price was $63 per barrel, while the realized gas price was $63 per barrel of oil equivalent, about $4 above the average spot market reference price. 

Fixed-price contracts represented about 15% of gas volumes sold during the quarter at an average price of $75 per barrel of oil equivalent.

The company said the weakening of the Norwegian krone during the fourth quarter resulted in a net foreign exchange loss of about $40 million. 

"Vår Energi’s functional currency is NOK, whilst interest bearing loans are in USD and EUR," it said.

Vår Energi also reported a non-cash impairment of technical goodwill in the fourth quarter estimated at about $70 million before tax, related to the Njord Area, Gjøa and Snorre assets. 

The company said "an adjustment following a redetermination process at Snorre, reducing Vår Energi’s equity share from 18.55% to 18.16%, makes up the majority of the impairment in the quarter."

Free cash flow in the fourth quarter was affected by three cash tax payments totaling about NOK 8.2 billion, equivalent to approximately $820 million, and a dividend payment of $300 million for the third quarter paid in November. 

The company also paid about $180 million related to its acquisition of TotalEnergies’ share in the Ekofisk Previously Produced Fields project, including $147 million in cash consideration and settlement of incurred costs from Jan. 1, 2025.