U.S. Economists Raise GDP Growth Forecast for Third Quarter- Survey

Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2025, according to a Bloomberg News survey conducted from September 19 to September 24.

The median estimate from the survey of up to 80 economists now projects that U.S. GDP will increase at a 1.6% quarter-on-quarter annual pace in the third quarter of 2025, up from the 1.1% growth rate predicted in the previous survey.

The economists also slightly raised their expectations for fourth-quarter growth to 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, compared to 1.1% in the prior survey.

For the full year 2025, the median forecast for GDP growth was revised upward to 1.7% year-on-year from the previous estimate of 1.6%.

The survey showed that inflation expectations remained steady, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year compared to the prior survey.

Yesterday’s data showed the U.S. economy expanded more strongly than initially estimated in the second quarter, lifted by resilient household spending and business investment, though signs of cooling are emerging as tariffs and policy uncertainty begin to weigh.

Gross domestic product rose at a 3.8% annualized rate, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third estimate, the fastest pace since late 2023. That compared with the prior 3.3% reading and exceeded economists’ expectations for no revision.

The stronger performance reflected a narrower trade gap as import flows slowed, amplifying the headline figure. At the same time, earlier quarters were marked down: growth for the first and fourth quarters of 2024 was revised sharply lower, offset by upgrades to the middle of the year.

For all of 2024, GDP expanded 2.8%, unchanged from earlier estimates. While the latest revision points to solid momentum last spring, analysts cautioned that headwinds from rising tariffs and a less certain policy environment are likely to temper growth in the second half.

Regarding monetary policy, economists surveyed in the Bloomberg news poll maintained their prediction that the Federal Reserve’s upper-bound target rate would reach 3.25% by the end of 2026. The current Federal Reserve upper-bound target rate stands at 4.25%.

Source: Yahoo Finance