US and European Central Banks Focus on Inflation Risks; Canada Expands Scope of 50% Counter-Tariffs on the US

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Summary:

Federal Reserve officials gather at Jackson Hole to warn of inflation risks; Canada expands its 50% counter-tariffs on the US, adding copper wire and charcoal...

【Highlights】

1. Iran to Counter Any Escalation of Economic Tensions

2. White House Reportedly Refuses to Restore June Agreement with Iran

3. Fed Officials Gather at Jackson Hole to Warn of Inflation Risks; Multiple Members Back Further Rate Hikes

4. Venezuela Considers Withdrawing from OPEC

5. Canada Expands Scope of 50% Counter-Tariffs on the US, Adding Copper Wire and Charcoal

6. ECB Officials Discuss Necessity of Adopting Moderately Restrictive Monetary Policy

7. US Initial Unemployment Claims Drop to 203,000 Last Week

【Details】

Iran to Counter Any Escalation of Economic Tensions

On the 27th local time, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran will take retaliatory measures against any actions that escalate tensions in the economic sphere and will target US economic interests in the region. He noted that if conflict breaks out again, Iran will be prepared for a new phase, and any future war will differ from past conflicts. He added that the change in the US stance and its move to exert economic pressure on Iran indicate that military strikes failed to achieve their intended effects.

White House Reportedly Refuses to Restore June Agreement with Iran

According to multiple sources, the Trump administration has repeatedly informed mediators that it has no intention of returning to the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran in June. This adds significant hurdles to the intensive diplomatic mediation efforts aimed at restarting negotiations this week. Sources said that Donald Trump has since turned to pursuing an "economic pariah" campaign, willing to wait and see whether this pressure strategy proves effective. They noted that Trump himself no longer favors the memorandum, which faced heavy domestic criticism for being overly soft on Iran.

Fed Officials Gather at Jackson Hole to Warn of Inflation Risks; Multiple Members Back Further Rate Hikes

Federal Reserve officials expressed ongoing concerns over the US inflation outlook during the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, stated that inflation remains stubborn and sticky, emphasizing the need to keep looking for ways to break through the situation and bring inflation back down to the 2% target.

Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, also voiced concern over the inflation outlook and reiterated her willingness to take action to curb price pressures.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, remarked that his primary short-term concern remains that inflation may not yet be under control.

Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, noted that the latest US inflation report was mixed; while headline inflation came in higher than expected, it was driven primarily by several idiosyncratic factors that alone do not warrant a Fed rate hike.

Venezuela Considers Withdrawing from OPEC

According to Bloomberg, Venezuela is evaluating the feasibility of exiting OPEC—a top agenda item in discussions between Venezuela and the US, though no final decision has been made. A Venezuelan exit from OPEC would deepen concerns over whether the cartel can maintain unity and influence crude oil prices, potentially paving the way for international oil companies to play a larger role in rebuilding Venezuela's oil industry. Four months ago, the UAE announced its plan to withdraw from OPEC, threatening the organization's unity and market influence.

Canada Expands Scope of 50% Counter-Tariffs on the US, Adding Copper Wire and Charcoal

The Department of Finance Canada announced that it has added US-made copper wire and charcoal to its 50% counter-tariff list to replace previously removed fish and seafood products. Prime Minister Mark Carney's government aims to align the annual import value covered by the retaliation with the scale affected by the Trump administration's 50% tariff on Canadian goods (approximately $20 billion). The US tariffs took effect last Saturday, while Canada's retaliatory tariffs will go into effect on September 8. Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne stated that removing US fish and seafood products followed consultations with the Canadian fishing industry. In addition to copper wire and charcoal, certain US glass containers, printed pictures, and gypsum tiles have also been added to the 50% tariff list.

ECB Officials Discuss Necessity of Adopting Moderately Restrictive Monetary Policy

Minutes from the European Central Bank’s July 22–23 policy meeting revealed that officials discussed whether a moderately restrictive monetary policy might be necessary to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target. While some officials initially favored a rate increase last month—arguing that the likelihood of having no reason for further rate hikes was low—the minutes released Thursday showed that all members ultimately agreed to keep policy rates unchanged due to significant uncertainties surrounding inflation persistence. With Eurozone inflation currently hovering around 3% (well above the ECB’s 2% target) and economic growth outperforming expectations, markets generally expect the ECB to raise interest rates again in two weeks following its initial hike in June.

US Initial Unemployment Claims Drop to 203,000 Last Week

The US Department of Labor reported that for the week ending August 22, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 203,000, a weekly decrease of 4,000. This came in better than market expectations of 208,000, with the previous week's figure revised to 207,000. The four-week moving average rose by 1,250 to 205,500. For the week ending August 15, continuing claims decreased by 18,000 to 1.778 million, also beating market forecasts of 1.792 million.

【Key Focus Today】

14:45 (UTC+8) France August Preliminary CPI (MoM)

15:00 (UTC+8) Switzerland August KOF Economic Barometer

20:30 (UTC+8) Canada June Monthly GDP

22:00 (UTC+8) US 2026 Preliminary Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision

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