UK Unemployment Holds at Near 5-Year High As Jobs Market Cools

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Summary:

UK wages grew at their slowest pace in 3 1/2 years and employers continued to trim jobs, more signs of a weakening jobs market as the Bank of England considers how much further it can cut interest rates.

Pay growth excluding bonuses cooled to 4.5% in the three months through November, down from 4.6% in the period through October, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday. It was in line with the median forecast of economists.

Unemployment held at a near five-year high of 5.1%. Separate tax data showed the number of employees on payrolls falling 43,000 in December, the month after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' tax-raising budget. The decline was double market expectations.

The labor market is a key focus for BOE policymakers, who have warned in recent weeks that the downturn may be worsening amid evidence that firms are turning to cutting jobs rather than just holding off hiring. Financial markets are fully pricing in one more rate cut this year, with a roughly 70% chance of a second.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Political

Tariffs As Political Leverage

President Donald Trump on Tuesday openly linked trade penalties to diplomatic compliance, warning that France could face tariffs of up to 200% on wine and champagne exports to the United States. The threat followed reports that President Emmanuel Macron is unwilling to join Trump’s “Board of Peace,” a global body endorsed by the United Nations Security Council to oversee the Israel Hamas ceasefire.

Speaking to reporters in Miami, Trump dismissed Macron’s political relevance and suggested that trade pressure could be used to influence France’s position. By tying tariffs directly to Macron’s reported refusal, Trump framed economic measures not as a response to trade imbalances, but as a tool to influence foreign political decisions.

Macron’s current presidential term ends in May 2027, and French law bars him from seeking a third term. Trump referenced this limitation while downplaying Macron’s standing, implying that political uncertainty in Paris reduces France’s ability to resist US pressure.

The Board Of Peace And Diplomatic Signaling

The Board of Peace was established last November with UN Security Council backing and is intended to oversee post ceasefire arrangements in Gaza. Invitations have reportedly been extended to several global leaders, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Macron’s apparent decision not to participate carries symbolic weight. France has historically positioned itself as an independent diplomatic actor in Middle East affairs, and declining a seat on a US backed initiative signals reluctance to align fully with Washington’s approach. Trump’s response suggests that refusal is being interpreted not as neutrality, but as hostility.

Greenland Returns To The Center Of Dispute

Alongside the tariff threat, Trump reiterated his intention to secure US control over Greenland, stating that European leaders “won’t push back too much.” He argued that Greenland is essential for global security and questioned Denmark’s historical claims over the territory.

Trump’s remarks dismissed the legitimacy of Denmark’s centuries long presence, despite Greenland having been formally integrated into the Danish state in 1953 and granted self government in 2009. Greenland controls most domestic affairs, while Denmark retains authority over foreign policy and defense.

Trump previously stated that the United States would pursue control of Greenland regardless of European opposition and has not ruled out military force, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated earlier this month that Washington would prefer a purchase arrangement.

Trade And Security Becoming Intertwined

The latest comments underscore how trade, diplomacy, and security are becoming increasingly interconnected in US policy under Trump. Earlier warnings included potential tariffs of up to 25% on eight European countries unless Greenland comes under US control. The threat against French wine extends this pattern, showing how sector specific trade measures are being positioned as instruments of strategic pressure.

European governments have responded by discussing retaliatory tariffs and broader economic counter measures. The possibility of escalation has already unsettled markets and revived concerns about a wider breakdown in transatlantic trade relations.

Rising Stakes For Europe And Global Markets

Trump’s remarks place Europe in a complex position. Yielding to pressure risks undermining sovereignty and diplomatic independence, while resistance raises the prospect of significant economic costs for exposed industries such as agriculture, luxury goods, and manufacturing.

The confrontation illustrates a broader shift in international relations, where trade policy is increasingly used to pursue geopolitical objectives rather than economic adjustment alone. As European leaders weigh their response, the dispute over French wine, Greenland, and the Board of Peace is shaping into a test of how far economic tools will be pushed in the pursuit of political alignment.

Source: CNBC

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An Early Vote That Defies Convention

Less than six months after taking office, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has opted to dissolve Japan’s Lower House on January 23, sending voters to the polls on February 8. The decision comes despite the chamber’s term running until October 2028, making the move highly unconventional by Japanese political standards. By framing the election as a direct referendum on her leadership, Takaichi has raised the political stakes, explicitly tying her future as prime minister to the outcome.

Her public message is clear. She is asking voters to personally endorse her stewardship of the country, rather than simply renewing support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. This personalization of the election reflects confidence in her own standing, but it also concentrates political risk squarely on her shoulders.

High Personal Approval Meets Weak Party Support

Takaichi’s decision is rooted in a striking divergence between her popularity and that of her party. Recent polls place her approval rating comfortably above 60%, with some surveys reporting support in the mid to high 70% range. By contrast, approval for the LDP lingers below 30%, highlighting a significant gap between enthusiasm for the prime minister and trust in the ruling party as an institution.

This contrast shapes the strategic logic of the snap election. By moving quickly, Takaichi seeks to lock in her personal momentum before economic pressures or diplomatic tensions begin to erode public confidence. The assumption underlying this strategy is that her individual appeal can translate into electoral gains for the LDP and its coalition partners, strengthening their grip on parliament.

A Razor Thin Parliamentary Majority

The political arithmetic in the Lower House underscores why Takaichi may feel compelled to act. The LDP and its junior partner currently control 230 of the chamber’s 456 seats. With three independents voting alongside the government, the coalition’s effective majority stands at just one seat. This precarious balance limits policy flexibility and weakens Japan’s negotiating position abroad.

A stronger majority would allow Takaichi to project greater authority on the international stage, particularly in dealings with the United States. Analysts note that an early mandate could bolster her hand in a potential meeting with President Donald Trump as soon as March, allowing her to engage foreign counterparts from a position of domestic political strength.

Opposition Regroups at a Critical Moment

While Takaichi’s popularity is undeniable, the political landscape has shifted in ways that complicate her gamble. On January 16, the largest opposition force, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, joined with Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner of 26 years, to form a new bloc known as the Centrist Reform Alliance. Together, they now command 172 seats in the Lower House.

This realignment matters because Komeito previously provided the LDP with organizational muscle and disciplined voter mobilization. Without that support, some LDP candidates may struggle to convert national approval for Takaichi into local electoral victories. The relationship here is not automatic. Personal popularity at the top does not necessarily translate into votes for rank and file party members, especially in tightly contested districts.

Geopolitics And Timing Pressures

Beyond domestic politics, external factors add urgency to Takaichi’s decision. Relations with China have cooled, with Beijing imposing export controls on dual use items and advising its citizens against travel to Japan. Tensions escalated further after Takaichi stated in parliament that a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan by force could prompt Japanese military involvement.

These developments create a narrowing window of opportunity. If geopolitical frictions intensify or economic conditions deteriorate, public sentiment could shift. Calling an election now reflects a calculated attempt to secure legitimacy before these risks fully materialize.

Calculated Strategy Or Unnecessary Risk

Analysts remain divided on whether the snap election represents strategic brilliance or political overreach. Skeptics argue that Takaichi is taking a significant risk by exposing the LDP’s structural weaknesses at a moment when the opposition is unusually unified. From this perspective, her popularity may not be enough to overcome party level vulnerabilities.

More optimistic observers emphasize Takaichi’s personal narrative and appeal, particularly among younger voters. They argue that her image as a self made leader who rose without elite backing could resonate more strongly than policy details, potentially delivering a decisive victory despite party level skepticism.

Ultimately, the snap election will serve as a defining test of Takaichi’s leadership calculus. A clear win would transform her from a popular prime minister into a dominant political figure with a strengthened mandate. A weaker outcome would expose the limits of personal popularity in a fragmented political environment. Either way, the decision ensures that Japan’s political direction in 2026 will be shaped not by gradual drift, but by a high risk choice made at the peak of one leader’s public support.

Source: CNBC

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Michael Ross

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Political

Canada is charting a new course in global trade, driven by Prime Minister Mark Carney. In a significant departure from its allies, Canada recently signed a trade deal with China, signaling a strategic effort to reduce its deep-seated economic reliance on the United States. This move is the centerpiece of Carney's plan to position Canada as a leader in a shifting global order, especially as unpredictable policies from the Trump administration reshape long-standing alliances.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addresses the media in Beijing after signing a landmark trade deal with China, a key part of his strategy to diversify Canada's economic alliances.

A Response to Global Uncertainty

The push for new trading partnerships has gained urgency as US foreign policy under President Donald Trump becomes more aggressive. Trump's tariffs and geopolitical gambits, such as his intensified efforts to claim sovereignty over Greenland from Denmark, have prompted nations like Canada to seek more stable economic ground.

Carney, the former head of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, was elected on a promise to build new economic alliances. His goal is to insulate the Canadian economy from US tariffs and threats of annexation. Before attending the annual global forum in Davos, Carney embarked on a world tour, visiting countries previously on the periphery of Canadian foreign policy.

"A number of the multilateral relationships, institutions, rules-based systems, are being eroded by various decisions of various countries, the United States included," Carney stated in Doha. He advocated for "plurilateral deals"—agreements between smaller groups of nations—as the way forward. He also positioned Canada as a potential bridge between the European Union and Pacific Rim countries.

The Challenge of Overwhelming US Dependency

Despite these ambitions, Canada faces a steep climb in shifting its trade focus. The country's economic fate is overwhelmingly tied to its southern neighbor.

• Nearly 70% of all Canadian exports are still sent to the United States.

• For comparison, the European Union sends just over 20% of its goods exports to the US.

The scale of this dependency is stark. According to Prince Owusu, a senior economist with Export Development Canada, for Canada to lower its merchandise exports to the US by just 10%, it would need to double its current exports to China, Germany, France, Mexico, Italy, and India combined.

Carney has set a target of doubling Canada's non-US exports within the next decade. To achieve this, experts agree that a heavier reliance on China, its second-largest trade partner, is unavoidable.

The China Gamble: High Stakes and Big Risks

While a closer relationship with China is critical to Canada's diversification plan, it comes with significant risks. William Pellerin, a partner at the law firm McMillan, warns of the potential for economic instability.

"We have to be very cautious... Moving too quickly and integrating too quickly with China also creates some issues around long-term stability for the economy," Pellerin noted. He pointed out that Chinese manufacturers have the capacity to flood the Canadian market with goods virtually overnight across nearly every category.

Recent data shows Canada's share of exports to the US fell to its lowest level outside the pandemic in October, but the figure still stood at a dominant 67.3%. The energy sector highlights this reality: 90% of Canadian crude oil is sold to the US, even as the government hopes to expand sales to Asia.

Economists believe the US share of Canadian exports is unlikely to drop significantly in the near term, particularly as many businesses await the outcome of this year's negotiations over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

Building a Global Network Beyond Beijing

Carney's diplomatic efforts extend far beyond China. His recent trip made him the first Canadian prime minister to visit Qatar and the first to visit China since 2017. In Beijing, he described China as a more predictable partner than the United States.

Canada is also pursuing a broader trade agenda:

• India: Diplomatic ties have been restored, and trade talks stalled under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are set to restart.

• New Deals: Trade agreements with Ecuador and Indonesia have been concluded, alongside investment agreements with the United Arab Emirates.

• Future Targets: Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu confirmed that Canada's next focus will be on the Philippines, Thailand, the Mercosur trade bloc, and Saudi Arabia.

"Normally, the government of Canada signs one trade agreement a year," Sidhu said. "We want to make sure we get those done as soon as possible."

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A Strategic Shift Toward A Democratic Technology Bloc

Taiwan is seeking to elevate its economic and geopolitical role by aligning its high-tech industries more closely with the United States. Speaking in Taipei, Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun described the recently concluded tariff agreement with Washington as the foundation for a broader strategic partnership, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence. The objective, she said, is to move beyond past cooperation frameworks and position Taiwan and the US as joint leaders of a democratic-oriented technology supply chain.

This shift reflects Taiwan’s intention to translate its manufacturing dominance into long-term strategic influence, especially at a time when global technology supply chains are increasingly shaped by political alignment and security considerations rather than cost efficiency alone.

Tariff Incentives Linked To US Investment

Under the terms of the agreement finalized last week, Taiwanese chipmakers that expand production capacity in the United States will benefit from reduced tariffs on semiconductors and related manufacturing equipment imported into the US. Certain items will also be eligible for duty-free treatment. At the same time, broad tariffs applied to most other Taiwanese exports to the US will be lowered to 15% from 20%, easing overall trade friction between the two sides.

This structure directly ties tariff relief to physical investment in the US, reinforcing Washington’s push to localize advanced chip production, particularly for AI applications. The relationship here is causal rather than merely correlative: expanded Taiwanese manufacturing presence in the US is a prerequisite for preferential tariff treatment.

Large-Scale Capital Commitments

The agreement is backed by substantial financial commitments. Taiwanese companies are set to invest $250 billion in the United States to expand production in semiconductors, energy, and artificial intelligence. In parallel, Taiwan will guarantee an additional $250 billion in credit to support further investment activity.

These figures underline the scale of Taiwan’s bet on deeper integration with the US economy. Rather than dispersing production across multiple regions, the strategy concentrates resources in a single allied market, aiming to secure both commercial returns and political alignment.

Safeguarding Taiwan’s Core Chip Industry

Addressing domestic concerns, Cheng emphasized that the deal does not represent a hollowing out of Taiwan’s semiconductor sector, often described locally as the “sacred mountain protecting the country.” Instead, she framed the strategy as an outward extension of Taiwan’s industrial strengths.

According to Cheng, this approach is designed to add to Taiwan’s technological capacity rather than subtract from it. By expanding abroad, Taiwanese firms aim to amplify their global footprint and resilience, using overseas production as a complement to, not a replacement for, domestic capabilities. The logic here rests on expansion through scale and diversification, not relocation driven by cost pressures.

From ‘Taiwan Can Help’ To ‘Taiwan And The US Can Lead’

Cheng also highlighted a symbolic shift in Taiwan’s international posture. She referenced the island’s past emphasis on assistance during global crises, such as the COVID pandemic, and contrasted it with a future vision centered on leadership. In her words, the goal is for Taiwan and the United States to jointly lead under the accelerating wave of AI development.

This narrative signals an ambition to move from being a reliable partner to becoming a co-architect of global technology standards and supply chains, particularly among democratic economies.

Geopolitical Context Shapes The Strategy

The announcement comes against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical tension. The United States remains Taiwan’s most important security supporter and arms supplier, despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties. China continues to claim Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out the use of force.

In this context, the high-tech partnership with the US carries strategic significance beyond economics. Deeper integration of semiconductor and AI supply chains reinforces political alignment and mutual dependence, strengthening Taiwan’s position within a US-centered democratic technology network.

Source: Reuters

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Tariff Rhetoric Casts Shadow Over Asia

Asia Pacific equity markets were mostly subdued as investors reacted to fresh signals from Washington that trade pressure could escalate if negotiations over Greenland fail. President Donald Trump announced that exports from eight European countries could face tariffs starting at 10% from February 1, with rates rising to 25% by June if the United States does not secure control over the mineral rich island. This development revived concerns about a broader trade confrontation with Europe, which in turn spilled over into Asian market sentiment.

European governments are reportedly discussing retaliatory measures, including counter tariffs and wider economic responses. This prospect has heightened uncertainty for global trade and investment flows, prompting investors in Asia to reassess risk exposure rather than aggressively reposition.

Mixed Equity Performance Across The Region

Market performance across Asia reflected this cautious tone. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined close to 1%, while the broader Topix index also moved lower as political uncertainty intensified. South Korea’s Kospi posted modest gains, and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong edged slightly higher. Mainland China’s CSI 300 traded flat, stabilizing after recent regulatory intervention aimed at cooling an overheated market.

Australia’s S and P ASX 200 fell around half a percent, while India’s Nifty 50 also closed lower. The uneven performance underscores how geopolitical risk is interacting with local factors rather than driving a uniform regional selloff.

China Equities Stabilize After Regulatory Tightening

In mainland China, equity markets held steady after authorities moved to curb leverage following a surge in trading volumes and margin financing. The decision to tighten margin rules came after onshore turnover hit record levels, raising official concern about speculative excess.

Despite these measures, some investors remain constructive on Chinese equities. Standard Chartered’s regional chief investment officer for Greater China said the bank continues to see the strength of A shares as sustainable. This view is based on signs of economic stabilization and expectations of further fiscal support at China’s major policy meetings scheduled for March 2026. The bank projects mid teen earnings growth over the coming twelve months, suggesting that current regulatory actions are seen as moderation rather than a reversal of supportive policy.

Japan In Focus As Politics And Bonds Jolt Markets

Japan emerged as a focal point for investors after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced plans to dissolve parliament and call a snap election on February 8. The announcement added near term political uncertainty, which weighed on equities and drove sharp moves in the bond market.

Japan’s 40 year government bond yield rose to 4% for the first time, highlighting investor concern about fiscal direction and rising debt servicing costs. The surge in long dated yields reflects a reassessment of risk as election pledges, including potential tax measures, raise questions about the sustainability of public finances.

Fitch Group noted that while government debt is expected to remain high in the medium term, stronger nominal GDP growth could gradually offset wider deficits and higher borrowing costs. Consolidated government debt is projected to ease to the mid 190% range of GDP by fiscal 2029, down from an estimated 199.5% in fiscal 2025.

Global Spillovers And Wall Street Signals

The cautious tone in Asia was reinforced by signals from US markets. Equity futures pointed to a weaker opening on Wall Street as investors digested the potential implications of escalating tariff rhetoric tied to Greenland. The prospect of renewed trade friction has reinforced defensive positioning globally, even in the absence of immediate policy action.

Asian markets appear to be entering a phase where geopolitical developments are once again exerting a strong influence on risk appetite. While domestic fundamentals and policy support remain important, the direction of trade negotiations and political outcomes related to Greenland are likely to remain key variables shaping investor behavior in the near term.

Source: CNBC

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Record Turnover Raises Red Flags

China’s equity markets have entered a phase of exceptional activity, with daily turnover across the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing exchanges repeatedly setting new records last week. According to Wind Information, trading value climbed to 3.99 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 556 billion dollars, overtaking the previous high of 3.48 trillion yuan recorded in October 2024. This surge in trading coincided with the CSI 300 index reaching a four year high earlier this year, following its strongest annual performance since 2020.

The intensity of market participation has drawn close attention from regulators and veteran investors alike. For many market observers, the pace and scale of recent activity evoke memories of earlier episodes of excessive speculation, most notably the sharp boom and subsequent collapse of China’s equity market in 2015.

Regulators Move To Cool Leverage

Authorities have responded by tightening margin financing rules in an effort to rein in speculative behavior. Under new regulations that came into effect on Monday, the margin requirement for new credit purchases was raised to 100% from 80% across all three mainland exchanges. In practical terms, this requires investors to fund the full cost of new share purchases upfront, while existing margin positions continue under previous arrangements.

This policy adjustment effectively curtails borrowing on new margin trades and signals official unease about the speed at which leverage has accumulated. Analysts at Morgan Stanley described the move as a response to overheating activity and sentiment in the onshore A share market, rather than a reaction to broader financial instability.

Sentiment Indicators Flash Warning Signals

Market sentiment measures underscore the scale of recent enthusiasm. Morgan Stanley’s weighted A share Market Sentiment Activity Index surged to 91% in recent days, marking the first time it has crossed the 90% threshold since September 2024. The rise was driven largely by the explosion in trading volumes rather than by price gains alone.

Analysts noted that regulatory adjustments were introduced at the same time sentiment indicators reached these elevated levels. Even so, they continue to expect liquidity support for both mainland and Hong Kong equities to remain in place through the first quarter, suggesting that policymakers are aiming to moderate excess rather than reverse the broader market trend.

Domestic Investors Dominate The Rally

Foreign participation in China’s equity markets has increased noticeably, with net inflows exceeding 50 billion dollars in recent months, according to Skybound Capital. This represents a significant rise compared with earlier years, yet foreign investors still account for only a small share of total trading activity.

Domestic investors remain the primary drivers of the rally. Data from HSBC show that retail investors contribute roughly 90% of daily turnover in onshore markets, a stark contrast to mature markets such as the New York Stock Exchange, where institutions dominate and retail activity typically represents only 20% to 25% of volumes. This structure shapes both market dynamics and regulatory responses, as sentiment driven trading can amplify swings in either direction.

Engineering A Slower Bull Market

Leverage in China’s stock market is concentrated mainly in margin financing, which magnifies gains and losses in an environment dominated by retail participation. When trading enthusiasm intensifies, rallies can accelerate quickly, but they also become more sensitive to shifts in sentiment.

Economists argue that the latest regulatory tweaks reflect an attempt to guide the market toward a more measured expansion. Hao Hong of Grow Investment Group described the policy changes as an effort to adjust leverage conditions so that authorities can encourage a slower, more sustainable bull market rather than suppressing it outright.

Other market participants emphasize that the current overheating appears uneven rather than systemic. Speculative activity is concentrated in specific segments, particularly AI related and technology stocks, many of which are recent listings that have attracted intense retail interest. This view is reinforced by divergence across exchanges, with the ChiNext board rising nearly 50% over the past six months, while gains in the Shanghai Composite Index have been far more modest.

China’s regulators now face the challenge of balancing strong investor enthusiasm with financial stability concerns. The latest measures suggest a preference for tempering excess while allowing the broader recovery in equity markets to continue. Whether this approach succeeds in sustaining confidence without reigniting fears of a sharp reversal will shape market behavior in the months ahead.

Source: CNBC

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UK Unemployment Holds at Near 5-Year High As Jobs Market Cools

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Trump Escalates Transatlantic Tensions With Threat of 200% Tariffs on French Wines

Tariffs As Political Leverage

The Board Of Peace And Diplomatic Signaling

Greenland Returns To The Center Of Dispute

Trade And Security Becoming Intertwined

Rising Stakes For Europe And Global Markets

Source: CNBC

Japan’s Snap Election Gamble Tests Takaichi’s Popularity and Political Timing

An Early Vote That Defies Convention

High Personal Approval Meets Weak Party Support

A Razor Thin Parliamentary Majority

Opposition Regroups at a Critical Moment

Geopolitics And Timing Pressures

Calculated Strategy Or Unnecessary Risk

Source: CNBC

Canada's Trade Pivot: A Risky Bet on China to Counter US Sway

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addresses the media in Beijing after signing a landmark trade deal with China, a key part of his strategy to diversify Canada's economic alliances.

A Response to Global Uncertainty

The Challenge of Overwhelming US Dependency

The China Gamble: High Stakes and Big Risks

Building a Global Network Beyond Beijing

Taiwan Positions Itself as Core Partner in a US-Led Democratic Tech Supply Chain

A Strategic Shift Toward A Democratic Technology Bloc

Tariff Incentives Linked To US Investment

Large-Scale Capital Commitments

Safeguarding Taiwan’s Core Chip Industry

From ‘Taiwan Can Help’ To ‘Taiwan And The US Can Lead’

Geopolitical Context Shapes The Strategy

Source: Reuters

Asian Markets Drift Lower as Greenland Tariff Threats Weigh on Risk Appetite

Tariff Rhetoric Casts Shadow Over Asia

Mixed Equity Performance Across The Region

China Equities Stabilize After Regulatory Tightening

Japan In Focus As Politics And Bonds Jolt Markets

Global Spillovers And Wall Street Signals

Source: CNBC

China Equity Rally Triggers Regulatory Alarm as Trading Frenzy Reaches New Extremes

Record Turnover Raises Red Flags

Regulators Move To Cool Leverage

Sentiment Indicators Flash Warning Signals

Domestic Investors Dominate The Rally

Engineering A Slower Bull Market

Source: CNBC

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