Trump Says He is 100% Confident on Europe Trade Deal, 'everybody' on His Priority List

(April 18): US President Donald Trump said the US and Ukraine would sign a deal on critical minerals next Thursday, in a step expected to keep Kyiv in good favour, as the White House seeks to broker a quick ceasefire deal with Russia.

“We have a minerals deal which I guess is going to be signed on Thursday,” Trump said while meeting with Italian Prime Minster Giorgia Meloni in the Oval Office. “And I assume they are going to live up to the deal.”

The announcement puts the agreement — which fell through after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy clashed with Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office — back on track, and suggests both sides have agreed to the contours of the accord governing postwar plans to exploit the country’s mineral deposits and rebuild its infrastructure.

The agreement comes as Trump has vacillated between blaming Moscow and Kyiv for failing to end the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump has demanded a joint US-Ukraine development deal as compensation for the weapons and other aid the US provided under his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Earlier this months Ukraine and US have conducted technical discussions on the deal and agreed to sign transitional memorandum of intent, fixing the positive steps, made by the parties. The document was signed online late on Thursday, clearing the way “for an Economic Partnership Agreement and the establishment of the Investment Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine”, Ukraine’s Vice Prime-Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said in a post on X.    

“This document is the result of the professional work of the negotiating teams, which recently completed another round of technical discussions in Washington,” Svyrydenko added.

The partnership accord would grant the US first claim on profits transferred into a special reconstruction investment fund that would be controlled by Washington. In negotiations, Kyiv has pressed for better terms and refused to recognise the past US assistance as debt.

Following a round of negotiations in Washington, the Trump administration reduced its estimate for the assistance the US provided to Kyiv since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion from US$300 billion (RM1.32 trillion) to about US$100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. This bring it closer to Ukraine’s own estimate of more than US$90 billion.

Trump backtracked from recent comments in which he said Zelenskiy was to blame for the war in Ukraine — while still lobbing criticism at the Ukrainian leader.

“I don’t hold Zelenskiy responsible but I’m not exactly thrilled with the fact that war started,” Trump said. He added that he was not happy with Zelenskiy because of the bloody toll of the war.

“I wouldn’t say he’s done the greatest job,” he said. “I am not a fan.”

Still, Trump said, his attention was on getting Russian leader Vladimir Putin to agree to end the fighting.

“I’m trying to get him to stop, because as you know, Russia’s a lot bigger,” Trump said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

AUDUSD is trading near its yearly high at 0.6408, continuing a strong uptrend. Further gains are likely. Full analysis for 18 April 2025 below.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• AUDUSD is approaching its 2025 high at 0.6408
• Current trend: upward
• AUDUSD forecast for 18 April 2025: 0.6408 and 0.6330

Fundamental analysis

AUDUSD has gained steadily over the past two weeks, nearing the yearly high of 0.6408. The rally is supported by broad US dollar weakness and the strong performance of gold — a key Australian export.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently reiterated that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates until there is greater clarity on the US economic outlook.

At the same time, the introduction of new tariffs by President Donald Trump’s administration has added pressure on the dollar. According to Powell, these measures may intensify inflationary risks while weighing on US economic growth — both factors favouring commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie.

AUDUSD technical analysis

AUDUSD is advancing within a clear bullish trend and is currently trading just below 0.6400. The Alligator indicator confirms the strength of the upward impulse.

In the short term, if buyers maintain momentum, a breakout above the yearly high at 0.6408 is possible. Should sellers regain control, a pullback toward the 0.6330–0.6300 support zone may follow.

Summary

AUDUSD remains firmly in an uptrend, supported by USD weakness and strong commodity prices. A near-term test of the 0.6408 yearly high is likely. Today’s forecast for 18 April 2025 points to a possible breakout, while key support lies in the 0.6300–0.6330 range.

Source: RoboForex

China is widely expected to leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing on Monday, a Reuters survey showed, but markets are wagering on more stimulus being rolled out soon in the face of an escalating Sino-U.S. trade war.

Policymakers have to walk a tight rope as the yuan has come under pressure after U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff onslaught, while shrinking interest margins at lenders has continued to limit the scope for monetary easing.

The loan prime rate (LPR), normally charged to banks' best clients, is calculated each month after 20 designated commercial banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

In a Reuters survey of 31 market watchers conducted this week, 27, or 87% of all respondents expected both the one-year and five-year LPRs to remain steady, while the remaining four participants projected a reduction of 10 to 15 basis points to the five-year rate.

Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

China last cut its policy rate in September and benchmark LPRs in October.

"I don't think there will be a LPR cut (this month)," said a trader at a wealth management firm.

"They will need to lower the deposit rates first."

A reduction to the banks' deposit rates could alleviate net interest margin pressure at lenders and allow them to lower lending rates.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in the first quarter, beating expectations, but markets fear a sharp downturn in the year ahead as U.S. tariff policies pose the biggest risk to the Asian powerhouse in decades.

Indeed, export data was yet to capture the impact from higher tariffs as many factories front-loaded their orders to beat the duties, analysts said.

Trump has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to a massive 145%, prompting Beijing to retaliate with higher 125% duties on U.S. goods in a tit-for-tat trade war that has roiled investors.

Market participants still expect some monetary easing measures in coming months to support the broad economy and cushion the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Any moves to boost stimulus, however, will require policymakers consider the impact on the yuan, which is down 0.4% against the dollar since Trump's April 2 announcement of global tariffs.

"To bolster domestic financial and property markets while promoting yuan internationalization, Beijing most likely won't allow a sharp yuan depreciation against the dollar," said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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In a stark downturn, the US stock market lost more than $1.5 trillion in value on April 17, 2025, following warnings from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about economic growth and tariffs.

Impact on the US Stock Market

The US stock market experienced a severe downturn attributed to concerns over economic growth and tariffs. Jerome Powell's comments about future economic challenges resulted in swift reactions, with the market witnessing a notable decrease in value.

Jerome Powell stated that tariff increases could sharply impact the economy. US–China tensions particularly strained the tech sector, leading to significant losses. The immediate impact saw tech stocks retracting substantially.

Technology Sector Strain

This event critically affected the technology sector, with companies facing renewed tariff implications. Key industry players noticed a marked increase in market volatility as investors reacted swiftly to the economic forecast.

Experts highlight potential repercussions including increased volatility in the crypto markets, which are tightly linked to traditional financial assets. Historical trends suggest early-stage volatility, potential for rebounds, and strategic investor realignments.

Future Economic Implications

Financial experts suggest this market event may bolster future discussions on global economic policies. The volatility casts a spotlight on links between traditional and crypto markets, echoing patterns seen in past economic disruptions.

Source: CryptoSlate

Bloomberg Economics’ in-house model SHOK shows that weaker oil prices and a stronger pound could dampen inflation by an average of 0.4 percentage points over the next year. SHOK broadly matches the key dynamics of the BOE’s own model.

The moves on markets are likely to play a key role in the projections that the BOE will reveal alongside its next rates decision on May 8. In February, the bank forecast inflation would peak at 3.7% — almost double the 2% target — and officials have continued to caution against cutting rates too quickly. However, investors have ramped up bets since Trump announced sweeping tariffs on April 2 and are now pricing in three reductions this year with a 50% chance of a fourth.

“The fall in energy prices since the BOE’s February forecast, and to a lesser extent the appreciation of the pound, will act as a disinflationary impulse on the economy over the next year,” said Ana Andrade, UK economist at Bloomberg Economics. “There’s a question mark around whether these moves will stick. If they do, we think energy moves could chop off 0.3 percentage points from headline inflation in 3Q25. Our forecast has it peaking at around 3.5% then.”

Key to the BOE’s latest projections will be how persistent rate-setters expect inflationary pressures to be. They are weighing stubbornly high wage growth and rising inflation expectations against Trump’s tariffs slowing global demand and tightening financial conditions.

Recession fears and OPEC’s plans to boost oil production have sent Brent crude — the benchmark UK oil price — sliding by about $14 per barrel to around $66 compared to the average during the BOE’s last forecast round. Tumbling gas prices also likely to lower household energy bills later this year.

“Since April 2 all these things have happened which in practical terms for a country like the UK are disinflationary because there’s a big demand hit but there’s also commodity price moves,” said Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at T. Rowe Price.

Policymakers have pointed out in recent weeks that the exchange rate is one channel that could affect inflation in both directions. However, it is currently more likely to depress the cost of imports with sterling up by about 2% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies since the BOE’s February forecast round after a dollar rout.

“We struggle to see how the overall impact of US tariffs on UK inflation is anything but disinflationary,” said Bruna Skarica, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley.

Economists expect the BOE to predict a lower inflation peak. The median of estimates in a Bloomberg survey this month was for inflation to reach 3.3% in the third quarter before subsiding.

The darkening growth backdrop has prompted investors to step up bets on a quicker easing from the BOE, a shift fueled further by softer inflation and jobs data earlier this week. Moves on money markets suggest that back-to-back cuts in May and June are seen as possible by investors.

Wieladek said markets are underestimating the odds of bigger cuts to borrowing costs, saying the BOE will likely need to push interest rates below their neutral level and into stimulative territory.

Source: Bloomberg Europe