Truist Starts Coverage On Cava With 'Buy' Rating

By Jennifer Williams

Cava doesn't discount, and it has no plans to even as some diners pull back on eating out. The key is ensuring that cash-conscious consumers see the value in the chain's Mediterranean lunch bowls.

Cava hasn't historically had trouble attracting customers with its no-discount strategy even as other restaurants see deals as a go-to for attracting customers. McDonald's lowered the cost of its combo meals in September. Burger King has said its $5 and $7 deals are helping to drive sales. And Chipotle Mexican Grill this month announced a series of free entree offerings with a purchase that it is running through December.

But Cava isn't going there, even as some diners cut back. The company recently cut its same-store sales outlook and overall profitability for 2025, citing the same pressures that other fast-casual restaurant chains have recently flagged: Consumers, especially younger ones, are spending less on eating out. Appealing to would-be diners who are currently bombarded with discounts could mean joining in on the deals.

"There might be a tendency to try to generate short-term improvements in traffic as a result of discounting," said Cava Chief Financial Officer Tricia Tolivar. "We don't think that has value over the long term."

Even without discounts, Cava diners get a deal, executives have said. A bowl with greens and grains, 12 unlimited toppings including pickled onions, cucumbers and olives, plus chicken is less than $11 in some locations. At most, the same bowl with chicken is just under $13 in New York City. That's higher than a value meal at McDonald's and certain deals at casual restaurant chains. But it's well below lunch for $20, a higher-price point perception that bowl restaurants in particular have struggled to shake as diners look for cheaper meal options.

Cava's same-store sales have been up double-digits in recent quarters, as recently as the three months ended in April. But that growth has started to slow as consumers look for places to trim their spending. Same-store sales were up 1.9% for the three months ended Oct. 5. The company cut its outlook to same-restaurant sales growth of 3% to 4% for the year, down from its prior outlook of 4% to 6%, with executives noting that consumers ages 25 to 35 years old were being more deliberate about their spending.

Still, Cava executives aren't tempted to start discounting its menu. "That's not a path that we're expecting to take at this point," Tolivar said, explaining the chain doesn't want to train its customers to expect price cuts on a regular basis. Cava is focused on value, though, keeping menu price increases to a minimum to offset tariff and inflationary pressures with a roughly 1.7% lift in early 2025. Cava expects price increases next year to be slightly below that, Tolivar said.

Deals don't always have the desired effect of creating profit and keeping diners, but restaurants right now are looking to value offers in hopes of luring cautious customers. "People are cutting back across the board," said Logan Reich, an equity research analyst at RBC Capital Markets. "But the effect is more outsized for the fast casuals because they are not leaning into value or lowering prices at the same time that [fast food chains] are," he said.

But it doesn't make sense for Cava long-term to lean on deals or discounts, Reich said. When a brand changes from not adjusting prices because of shifts in consumer spending or confidence to a more reactive pricing strategy, there could be lasting impacts, he said. "Once you brand yourself as a discounter, the consumer will realize that, and it sort of shifts the brand value perception over the long term."

Cava's marketing team is working to spread the message about the value of its menu items, said Tolivar, the CFO. More than showcasing deals, analysts see an opportunity to simply introduce people to the brand through marketing, which at $8.8 million last year, accounted for less than 1% of sales. Cava declined to share a target for marketing spend.

Its new restaurants tend to do well. On average, locations opened in 2025 are trending above $3 million in annual sales, higher than the chainwide $2.9 million average. Growth is primarily through word-of-mouth and organic discovery so far, said Chris O'Cull, a managing director at Stifel. Marketing can expand the reach.

"Cava's challenge is just getting more people in to try the brand," O'Cull said.

Write to Jennifer Williams at jennifer.williams@wsj.com