Trend Reversal Puts Dogecoin On A Path To $0.188

South Korean cryptocurrency mogul Do Kwon is about to face 12 years in prison for his role in the 2022 TerraUSD collapse, a “colossal” fraud that triggered $40 billion loss in users funds. Sentencing is scheduled for Dec. 11.

Crypto supporters are now wondering why such a harsh punishment, and what Do Kwon’s team says in his defense?

Do Kwon To Face 12-Year Prison Term

On December 4, a new filing was sent to Judge Paul Engelmayer in New York, where the government explained why it believes Do Kwon deserves such a long prison sentence.

Prosecutors explained that Kwon kept saying TerraUSD (UST) was safe and would always stay at $1, giving false hope to the investors. 

But in May 2022, UST suddenly collapsed, and billions of dollars vanished almost overnight. They say this crash didn’t just hurt Terra investors. It triggered big problems across the whole crypto market, even contributing to failures that later connected to huge disasters like FTX.

According to the US prosecutors, Kwon hid important facts and made people trust a system that was already unstable. Because of all this, they believe 12 years is a fair sentence.

Do Kwon’s Lawyers Request a Lighter Sentence

Do Kwon’s lawyers disagree with the long sentence suggested by U.S. prosecutors. They say that a shorter sentence, around five years or less, would be more fair because the Terra crash was not caused by Kwon alone.

According to his defense team, several outside factors added to the collapse. They claim that:

• Some large traders attacked the Terra system on purpose.
• Weak points in UST’s design were taken advantage of by other firms.
• The entire crypto market was already facing big pressure at the time.

His lawyers also shared research papers and blockchain analysis to support their argument.

Do Kwon has already pleaded guilty to wire fraud and conspiracy to defraud, after being charged in March 2023 with several counts linked to fraud and market manipulation.

Sentencing is Scheduled for Dec 11

The sentencing hearing set for December 11 will mark a crucial moment not just for Kwon, but for the broader crypto world. Many victims are hoping for justice. They say Kwon destroyed families, ruined retirements, and shattered dreams. 

Some people lost everything they had worked for their entire lives because they believed his promises.

Legal experts expect the judge will consider the enormity of losses and investor harm caused by the collapse.

Ethereum price has finally shown its first real sign of strength in months. The ETH/BTC pair has broken above a 3.5-month descending trendline—a level that has consistently blocked Ethereum’s relative performance since early September. While this move has triggered fresh optimism across the market, calling it an “altcoin season trigger” would be premature. The breakout is meaningful, but the evidence points to an early signal rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Technical Breakdown: What the Chart Actually Confirms

The breakout is structurally valid: ETH/BTC closed above the descending trendline with clear rejection wicks turning into support. Momentum is improving, and the pair’s posture is stronger than at any point in Q4. However, volume remains moderate, meaning the move is driven more by structural exhaustion than aggressive accumulation.

Polymarket is recruiting staff for an internal market-making team that may trade against users on its platform.

The company has recently approached traders — including sports bettors — about joining the group, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the discussions.

The initiative comes as Polymarket expands its US presence after resolving regulatory issues stemming from a 2022 case, when it paid a $1.4 million penalty to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

Bitcoin is trading around $91,000 after a minor dip earlier today, and uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. The market sits at a crossroads: a small but vocal group of analysts argues that the recent correction served as a healthy reset before a continuation of the broader uptrend, while the majority of traders believe the first leg of a new bear market is already underway. With price action still showing hesitation, the debate grows louder by the day.

According to top analyst Darkfost, a critical threshold will help determine Bitcoin’s next major direction. He highlights the importance of the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder (LTH) band, which currently sits at $96,956. This metric marks the transition point between short-term and long-term holders and is viewed as a psychological and structural barrier for market stability.

Reclaiming this level would push these young LTHs back into a comfortable profit zone, reducing their incentive to sell and helping to restore confidence across the market. Until Bitcoin closes decisively above $97K, Darkfost warns that caution is warranted, as volatility remains high and the risk of further downside persists.

Why the $97K Threshold Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Major Move

Darkfost emphasizes that the $96,956–$97,000 zone plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s next phase. This level represents the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder band, meaning it reflects the average cost basis of investors who recently transitioned from short-term to long-term holding behavior. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, these holders sit at an unrealized loss, increasing the likelihood of panic selling and adding pressure to the market.

Breaking above this zone would flip sentiment for this group almost immediately. Darkfost explains that reclaiming $97K would place these investors back into a comfortable profit position, restoring their confidence and expectations of potential gains. Once this psychological weight lifts, these holders typically choose to keep accumulating rather than selling, which naturally brings more stability to the market.

However, he cautions that Bitcoin’s failure to close above $97,000 keeps the risk tilted to the downside. As long as the price remains below this band, the market stays vulnerable, and volatility may continue.

Even if BTC successfully reclaims $97K, Darkfost reminds that this is only the first step. The market would still need stronger structural confirmation—such as reclaiming key moving averages and rebuilding demand—to validate a true bullish reversal that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.

BTC Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a market trying to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction that dragged the price from above $115,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. The latest weekly candle shows a firm rebound from the 100-week moving average (green line), now acting as dynamic support around the $84,000–$86,000 region. This level historically attracts long-term buyers, and the strong wick rejection confirms renewed demand.

BTC is currently trading near $91,300, sitting just below the 50-week moving average (blue line), which now acts as resistance. A clean reclaim of this moving average—currently positioned around $95K–$97K—would significantly improve the technical outlook and align with on-chain signals calling for a recovery. Until then, the trend remains neutral-to-bearish on higher timeframes.

Volume during the recent bounce stands out, showing one of the strongest buying reactions since early 2025. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional buyers may be stepping in as the price approaches key value zones.

However, Bitcoin is not out of danger. Failures to break above $97K would leave the structure vulnerable to another leg down, potentially retesting $86K or even deeper liquidity pockets around $80K.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Jupiter plans to unlock 53.74 million JUP tokens (about 1.73% of its released supply) on 28 December 2025 at 2 PM UTC. As documented by Tokenomist here, periodic token unlocks introduce new supply to the market, which may heighten volatility and prompt downward price reactions if absorption from buyers is insufficient. Monitoring wallets receiving unlocked tokens can provide additional clues to potential short-term market trends.

Hyperliquid will unlock 9.92 million HYPE tokens, representing about 2.59% of its released supply, at 7:30 AM UTC. According to the tokenomics outlined by Tokenomist here, such unlocks increase the circulating supply, which can exert downward pressure on price if demand does not keep pace. Traders should monitor liquidity and major holders' activity around the unlock, as significant token releases have historically preceded elevated volatility and sometimes price retracements.