Investing.com -- Bernstein says a wave of “Big Beautiful” tax refunds could reshape U.S. consumer spending patterns in 2026, with several retail and leisure names best positioned to benefit.
The Congressional Budget Office expects the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to add $300 billion a year to household resources in 2026–34, while experts estimate “incremental tax refunds of $100B–$150B for 2026,” equal to roughly “$1.0k–$2.0k per household,” according to Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma.
In U.S. hardlines and broadlines retail, Bernstein expects around a 60bps sales lift, with Costco and Sam’s Club the biggest winners, followed by Walmart and Target.
The analyst said the key question for dollar stores is whether refunds “can halt recent trade down activity.” For home improvement chains, they estimate a “~1%” uplift, though high mortgage rates could cap gains.
Bernstein believes high-income consumers will drive the largest spending increase. In U.S. discretionary retail, it expects Tapestry, TJX and On to benefit because each has broadened its higher-income customer mix and “have not seen any resistance to tariff-driven price increases.”
The firm also identifies tailwinds for off-price retailers such as Ross and Burlington, and in Europe highlights Inditex and Ahold Delhaize as likely beneficiaries due to their higher-income exposure.
In restaurants, Bernstein anticipates “incremental pressure” on quick-service chains, while mid- and high-income brands such as Chipotle, Cava and Starbucks should gain.
Alcohol and travel companies tied to affluent consumers also stand to benefit, with Bernstein naming Royal Caribbean as the strongest cruise-line winner given that “74% of RCL’s revenue is driven by U.S. leisure demand.”
