The Macro Conditions For Bitcoin In 2026: Analyst Breaks Them Down

NewsBTC

Macro trader plur daddy (@plur_daddy) argues bitcoin’s 2026 setup is less about crypto-specific catalysts and more about whether US liquidity conditions normalize after what he described as an unusually tight few months for risk.

His central claim is that repo “plumbing” has been strained by a shortage of bank reserves as leverage in the economy grew faster than the Fed’s balance sheet, and that the resulting stress showed up in broader markets — “very choppy and rotational dynamics in equities” — alongside “a quite adverse environment for crypto.” Going into the new year, he expects a set of incremental shifts that could move conditions from tight back toward neutral, even if they do not create a new “loose” regime.

4 Macro Themes Will Be Crucial For Bitcoin

The first lever is the Fed’s reserve management purchases (RMPs). “Since the Dec FOMC where they announced $40bn/mo in RMPs for 3 months (and an undefined lower amount thereafter), this liquidity has been flowing in. The Fed has already purchased $38bn of the first month’s allocation,” he wrote. “So far we haven’t seen a huge impact as this was being offset by year end liquidity factors as broker dealers close their books and reduce risk for the year end, but this should change.”

He stresses that the program is meant to relieve funding pressure, not fuel a risk-on melt-up. “I’ll add in the disclaimer that this is not QE, this is a targeted tool to unblock a clogged pipe in the financial plumbing matrix, so don’t get too carried away by the impact this can have,” he wrote. “It can help shift a tight environment back to normal, but it will not shift a normal environment to loose.”

On sizing, he calls it imprecise but meaningful: “Gauging the deficit is more of an art than science, but gut feeling it is probably around $100-200bn (dovetails with the announced RMP size), so 1 month of RMPs is not going to plug the whole thing, but it should have a meaningful impact.”

Second is fiscal incrementality. He expects a modest re-widening in the deficit: “My work suggests an expansion of $12-15bn/mo starting on Jan 1 from the OBBBA impacts,” he said, adding, “We are in a fiscal dominance regime.”

The analyst ties recent softness to the opposite impulse, arguing deficit contraction — which he attributes to tariffs — has weighed on markets, and that even a partial reversal matters: “$12-15bn/mo is not enough to overcome the tariff impacts, but it is incremental vs. Nov/Dec, and I believe incrementality is what matters.” He also flags the eSLR change effective Jan. 1 for early adopters as a smaller tailwind, with broader banking deregulation “on deck for the 2026.”

Third is disinflation and the policy path. He points to falling market-based inflation expectations, citing the one-year inflation swap, and frames the mix as a “goldilocks setup.” “The disinflationary environment creates a goldilocks setup,” he wrote. “The economy is weak but not too weak, and softer inflation gives the Fed air cover to keep cutting.” He notes markets are currently conservative — “a Jan cut at only 13%” and “a total of 2 cuts priced into the curve for the whole year” — then lays out his own baseline: “I’d expect something closer to 4 cuts assuming orthodox policy, and more than that with a Trump takeover.”

Finally, he argues politics could matter via the Fed chair. “Trump will ultimately value loyalty over all,” he wrote, because he believes Trump felt “betrayed by Powell.” He adds: “The Fed Chair is especially important on this dimension, since Trump lacks the authority to fire them, unlike other positions.” In his view, Kevin Hassett is “very likely” given that relationship. He also sketches market sensitivity: “Gold in particular will benefit from a Hassett nomination. Equities might have some heartburn initially but also think they will ultimately go up.”

For bitcoin, his conclusion is cautious but directionally constructive if these macro pieces line up. “In terms of crypto, in theory all of this should benefit it,” he wrote. “I probably won’t play it, as I favor gold here, and crypto is increasingly a tough bet when you factor in the drains on mental capital.” Still, he leaves a timing tell: “However, there is a case to be made that if you were going to be bullish, somewhere around here is the time. Don’t be a hero, look for shifts in character and a positive response as liquidity conditions improve.”

At press time, BTC traded at $87,053.

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Is XRP Price Losing Key Support? Why the $1.50 Level Is Back in Focus

Coinpedia

Crypto market volatility is slowly gaining strength, as the prices of tokens have been ranging within a predefined range. Currently, the markets are experiencing significant upward pressure while top cryptos like Bitcoin remain accumulated within a range, and Ethereum is failing to sustain above $3000. Meanwhile, the top fifth crypto, XRP price, has also maintained a steep bearish trend and is likely to find lows below $1.8 in the coming days.

With XRP showing signs of weakness after failing to hold above key support levels, is this just a slip of momentum, as the price does not appear to be gearing for a sharp breakdown? If yes, then there is an increased risk of a deeper pullback if support continues to weaken.

Is XRP Price Heading to $1.5?

On the daily chart, XRP price is trading within a clear descending channel, marked by lower highs and steady selling pressure. Each bounce attempt has stalled below the descending trendline, showing that sellers remain active on rallies. This type of structure usually signals continuation rather than reversal, especially when price struggles to reclaim previous support zones.

The $1.78–$1.80 range has emerged as an important near-term support. XRP is currently hovering just above this level, but the reaction has been weak. There is no strong expansion in volume, suggesting buyers are cautious rather than aggressive.

Momentum indicators are also flashing caution. The RSI is hovering near the 40 level, which typically reflects weak momentum rather than oversold conditions. This suggests there is still room for downside before buyers feel forced to step in. At the same time, On-Balance Volume (OBV) continues to trend lower, indicating sustained distribution. This shows that capital is slowly exiting rather than accumulating at current prices.

If XRP loses the $1.78 support, the next major demand zone sits near $1.50. This level previously acted as a strong base and could attract buyers again if tested. A move toward $1.50 would not signal panic but rather a continuation of the current corrective trend.

Here’s When the XRP Price Could Trigger a Rebound

XRP is not breaking down aggressively, but it is losing ground slowly. That is often more dangerous for late buyers than sudden volatility. Until price reclaims structure, the chart favors caution rather than dip-buying. For any meaningful trend reversal, XRP must reclaim the $2.00–$2.10 zone and hold above the descending trendline. This move would need to be supported by rising volume and improving momentum indicators.

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Bitcoin Is Not Set for a Happy Holidays. Blame Silver and Gold. — Barrons.com

Dow Jones Newswires

By Jack Denton

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were little changed on Christmas Eve, with digital assets looking set to miss out on any Santa Claus rally that sweeps stock markets. One crypto skeptic suggests silver and gold could be to blame.

The price of Bitcoin fell less than 1% over the past 24 hours to $87,300. Bitcoin hit a record high above $126,000 in October but has since fallen back dramatically amid deteriorating sentiment for digital assets.

"Bitcoin is in a falling trend channel in the short term. This shows that investors over time have sold at lower prices to get out of the currency, and indicates negative development," wrote investing platform Investtech on Wednesday, based on technical market indicators. "[Bitcoin] has support at points $84,000 and resistance at points $93,400 ... technically negative for the short term."

With few obvious catalysts ahead and a weak technical backdrop, cryptos seem unlikely to benefit significantly from sentiment that could buoy wider markets, such as the much-anticipated "Santa Claus rally" typically seen in stocks. The S&P 500, for its part, hit an all-time high on Tuesday, with precious metals also rallying as gold and silver set their own fresh records.

In fact, gains for gold and silver could be a contributing factor to Bitcoin's weakness, according to research published Tuesday by Walter J. Zimmerman Jr. of ICAP Technical Analysis.

Citing price trends and evidence of fund flows, Zimmerman suggests that investors have rotated out of Bitcoin and into precious metals. Bitcoin has fallen by more than a third since its peak on October 6, while gold has risen 15% to historic highs over that same period with silver similarly setting records with a 50% jump on the same timeline.

"[These] trends ... are causally connected," wrote Zimmerman. "We are looking at fund flows out of Bitcoin and into gold and silver."

Beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum — the second-largest crypto — fell 1.5% to below $3,000. Smaller tokens or altcoins were also weaker, with XRP retreating 1.5%, Solana sliding 2%, and Dogecoin down 2%.

Write to Jack Denton at jack.denton@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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Can Bitcoin Price Beat Its 2024 Christmas High of $94,000 This Festival Season?

Coinpedia

Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum this Christmas, trading below the $90,000 mark despite the festive mood in the market. There are hopes for a holiday rally amid the bearish price action.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin closed near $86,935, slightly lower after failing to hold recent gains. Thin holiday trading volumes, ETF outflows, and a large options expiry have all added pressure on the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

How Bitcoin Performed at Christmas in Recent Years

Bitcoin’s Christmas performance has varied sharply over the past three years:

2023: $43,665
2024: $94,120

Last year’s Christmas rally to above $94,000 set a high bar. This year, Bitcoin is well below that level, raising questions about whether another festive breakout is possible.

Why Bitcoin Is Stuck Below $90,000

Bitcoin has been consolidating in a tight range between $85,000 and $90,000 throughout December. Analysts say low liquidity during the holidays has reduced strong price moves in either direction.

ETF-related selling and a major options expiry have also limited upside momentum. However, from a technical perspective, signals are mixed.

Bitcoin Magazine
@BitcoinMagazine
Historical #Bitcoin prices on Christmas Eve🎄
2013 – $666
2014 – $323
2015 – $455
2016 – $899
2017 – $13,926
2018 – ,079
2019 – $7,323
2020 – $23,736
2021 – $50,822
2022 – $16,822
2023 – $43,665
2024 – $94,120
2025 – $87,340 pic.twitter.com/8d9oQpotJO
Dec 24, 2025

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is still showing signs of a broader correction. A bearish divergence remains active, showing weakness could continue unless the trend changes.

However, shorter timeframes tell a slightly more positive story. On the three-day chart, a small bullish divergence has formed. This often means a short-term bounce or sideways movement rather than a strong rally.

Bitcoin continues to bounce between clear levels:

Support: $85,000 to $86,000
Resistance: $92,000 to $94,000

The $90,000 level has now turned into strong resistance, with multiple rejections over the past week.

Can Bitcoin Rally During Christmas?

Bitcoin looks oversold in the short term and could attempt a move back toward $90,000 to $91,000, where liquidity is building. If buying pressure increases, a brief Christmas bounce is possible.

However, failure to hold current support could send Bitcoin down toward $82,000, especially if broader market sentiment weakens.

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Mantle, the Distribution Layer for Onchain Finance, Positioned Among Leading Layer 2s in New Messari Report

Chainwire

DUBAI, UAE, Dec. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Messari has published an in-depth report examining Mantle's network design, ecosystem structure, and recent milestones, highlighting the protocol's evolution toward a coordinated distribution layer for onchain finance. The analysis focuses on Mantle's deepening exchange integration, expanding real-world asset infrastructure, and the emergence of a modular financial stack spanning capital, applications, and user access.

Deepening Distribution Through Bybit Integration

Messari highlights Mantle's evolving relationship with Bybit, which has progressed from a standard token listing to a deep platform-level integration where MNT functions as a core asset across trading, fee payments, VIP programs, and institutional products. Following a joint roadmap announced in August 2025, Bybit expanded MNT-quoted trading pairs, enabled discounted MNT-denominated fees, and introduced MNT-based benefits for VIP and institutional users. During this period, MNT's circulating market capitalization reached approximately $8.7 billion on October 8, 2025, reflecting expanded access, improved liquidity, and broader participation across Bybit's distribution channels.

Capital Formation Anchored for DeFi Hubs

The report notes that Mantle's capital base is anchored by mETH Protocol, which remains one of the network's largest sources of onchain liquidity. As of late 2025, mETH holds $791.7 million in ETH and cmETH holds $277 million, representing approximately $1.07 billion in underlying assets. On the application layer, Mantle's DeFi TVL reached $242.3 million as of September 30, 2025, reflecting continued growth in onchain activity across the network.

Expanding Institutional Stack Across RWAs, DeFi, and Infrastructure

Messari also underscores Mantle's progress in building institutional-grade onchain infrastructure through its Tokenization-as-a-Service (TaaS) platform, which provides end-to-end support for compliant RWA issuance. Institutional activity expanded through issuances such as Ondo Finance's USDY, which reached approximately $29 million tokenized on Mantle, alongside broader ecosystem initiatives including global RWA hackathons and scholarship programs.

"Institutions don't adopt isolated execution layers, but they adopt ecosystems that coordinate capital, liquidity, and distribution," said Emily Bao, Key Advisor at Mantle. "Mantle's focus has been on closing those gaps and making onchain finance usable at institutional scale, rather than optimizing for throughput alone."

"Mantle's development reflects a broader shift among Layer 2s toward coordinating capital, applications, and distribution rather than optimizing execution in isolation," said Evan Zakhary, Protocol Research Analyst at Messari. "Its growing capital stack and exchange-led distribution position it as a network focused on institutional onchain activity."

Messari's analysis positions Mantle as a Layer 2 evolving beyond execution to coordinate capital, infrastructure, and distribution. As the network deepens exchange integration and institutional adoption, Mantle is increasingly defined by its role as a distribution layer for institutional onchain finance.

About Mantle

Mantle positions itself as the premier distribution layer and gateway for institutions and TradFi to connect with onchain liquidity and access real-world assets, powering how real-world finance flows.

With over $4B+ in community-owned assets, Mantle combines credibility, liquidity, and scalability with institutional-grade infrastructure to support large-scale adoption. The ecosystem is anchored by within Bybit, and built out through core ecosystem projects like mETH, fBTC, MI4 and more. This is complemented by Mantle Network's partnerships with leading issuers and protocols such as Ethena USDe, Ondo USDY, OP-Succinct and EigenLayer.

For more information about Mantle, please visit: mantle.xyz

For more social updates, please follow: Mantle Official X & Mantle Community Channel

For media enquiries, please contact: contact@mantle.xyz

About Bybit

Bybit is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 80 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.

For more details about Bybit, please visit Bybit Press

For media inquiries, please contact: media@bybit.com

For updates, please follow: Bybit's Communities and Social Media

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Three signs that Bitcoin is finding its market bottom

Cointelegraph

Bitcoin may establish a local bottom after dropping by over 35% from its record high of around $126,200 established two months ago, based on a mix of technical and on-chain indicators.

Key takeaways:

Momentum, miner capitulation, and liquidity indicators point to fading selling pressure.
Macro liquidity suggests a BTC recovery could begin within the next 4–6 weeks.

Bitcoin sellers nearing exhaustion

As of December, Bitcoin’s weekly Stochastic RSI had turned up from oversold levels, a setup that has historically appeared near key inflexion points, before the price rebounded, as highlighted by trader Jesse in the chart below.

Similar bullish crosses emerged in early 2019 (after BTC bottomed near $3,200), March 2020 (the COVID crash low near $3,800), and late 2022 (around the $15,500 cycle low). In each case, momentum shifted first, while price lagged.

Adding to the signal, Bitcoin’s three-day chart is printing a bullish divergence where price made a lower low, but momentum did not.

This pattern also appeared ahead of the mid-2021 correction low and the FTX-driven bottom in 2022, both of which preceded multi-month recoveries.

These signals suggest selling pressure in the Bitcoin market may be exhausted in the near future, a condition more typical of market bottoms than temporary relief rallies.

Bitcoin miner capitulation shows BTC bottom is in

Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% in the month to Dec. 15, a development VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush viewed as “a bullish contrarian signal” linked to miner capitulation.

Periods of sustained hash rate compression have historically preceded stronger Bitcoin returns, they said, explaining that since 2014, BTC posted positive 90-day returns 65% of the time following 30-day hashrate declines.

The signal strengthened over longer horizons, with positive 180-day returns 77% of the time and an average gain of 72%.

Rising prices could also improve miner profitability and bring sidelined capacity back online.

Bitcoin may rally in 4-6 weeks, one macro indicator shows

Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom as liquidity conditions begin to improve, a factor that has historically led to major BTC reversals.

Analyst Miad Kasravi’s backtest of 105 indicators showed the National Financial Conditions Index’s (NFCI) top often leads a Bitcoin rally by four to six weeks.

This signal appeared in late 2022 and mid-2024, both ahead of sharp rallies. Historically, each 0.10-point decline has aligned with roughly 15%–20% upside in Bitcoin, with deeper NFCI readings marking prolonged BTC uptrend phases.

As of December, NFCI sat at -0.52 and was trending lower.

A potential catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s plan to rotate mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills, a move Kasravi compared to the 2019 “not-QE” liquidity injection that preceded a 40% Bitcoin rally.

Despite these signals, many market watchers anticipate Bitcoin’s price to decline further, with their price targets ranging from $70,000 to $25,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

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Arthur Hayes sells more ETH and invests in DeFi tokens

Crypto Briefing

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes sold 682 Ethereum worth roughly $2 million on Tuesday, according to data tracked by Lookonchain.

Hayes also increased exposure to decentralized finance tokens, buying Ethena (ENA), Pendle (PENDLE), and Ether.fi (ETHFI), with total purchases valued at about $609,000.

The latest trades build on activity from last weekend, when Hayes exchanged 680 ETH for 1.2 million ENA tokens. Hayes has said he is reducing Ethereum exposure in favor of select DeFi assets that he believes could benefit more directly from improved liquidity conditions.

The analyst had accumulated ENA earlier in 2025 before selling a portion of his holdings during periods of market weakness, resulting in realized losses on those positions.

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