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US stocks posted modest gains Friday as traders held their breath ahead of critical inflation data that could reshape the Fed’s rate-cut calculus.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 89 points, or 0.2%.

Street strategists remain laser-focused on the delayed PCE report, due mid-morning, with rate-cut odds already priced at roughly 87%, and any upside inflation surprise threatening to derail the market’s December easing narrative.

The PCE moment: Can the Fed justify one more cut?

Economists surveyed by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal expect September’s headline PCE to climb 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually, a fractional tick above the August reading of 2.7% annually.

The core measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise just 0.2% monthly and 2.8% annually.

Those aren’t dramatic dips, but they’re in line with the disinflationary trend that’s emboldened the Fed’s dovish camp.

Governor Chris Waller has already signaled support for December easing, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan remains skeptical, arguing that a 2.9% headline PCE misses the Fed’s 2% target by too wide a margin.​

The reality is binary: if PCE confirms cooling inflation, rate-cut odds spike and bond yields fall, supporting equities.

If the print surprises higher, expect sellers to emerge and Treasury yields to climb, pushing the Fed closer toward pausing its easing cycle. ​

What happened in pre-market trade: Netflix wins Warner Bros, Rubrik rockets

Premarket action before the open delivered drama beyond the data calendar.

Netflix surged in exclusive talks to acquire Warner Bros.

Discovery’s studios and HBO streaming division for roughly $28 per share in an all-cash or mostly-cash deal, a landmark consolidation bet by CEO Ted Sarandos that marks Netflix’s biggest M&A push ever.

Warner Bros. shares dipped roughly 1% despite the deal news, reflecting regulatory concerns and uncertainty over execution.

Netflix slipped nearly 3% amid worries over antitrust scrutiny and integration risk.​

Elsewhere, Rubrik, the cloud data management and cybersecurity company, exploded nearly 19% after crushing quarterly earnings and lifting full-year guidance.

The company posted adjusted earnings of 10 cents per share versus expectations of a 17-cent loss, with revenue at $350 million against $320 million expected.

Ulta Beauty also soared 6% after hiking fiscal-year sales guidance to $12.3 billion and raising EPS to $25.20–$25.50, powered by stronger-than-expected Black Friday sales and holiday momentum.​

Wall Street open: What’s priced in?

The market heading into Friday’s close is clearly pricing in an easing Fed and growth persisting into Q1 2026.

Small caps have already begun to outperform large-cap tech, a classic rotation that signals investor conviction in lower rates, and the S&P 500 is within 1% of all-time highs.

Breadth is solid, with the Nasdaq notching eight positive sessions out of its last nine.

Still, the PCE print is a gut check. If inflation proves stickier than expected, expect a brutal repricing of Fed odds and a week of volatility ahead of the December 10 decision.