Tesla begins limited robotaxi testing in Austin with human monitors

By Jack Hough

Humanoid robots are hot, apparently. A China stock index of companies involved with their development is beating the world market by 16 points this year. A new report from UBS says the world will have 300 million humanoids by 2050. An earlier one from Morgan Stanley puts the number at a billion, and the size of the market by then at $5 trillion — twice what the top 20 car makers bring in today.

There are loads of stock picks, for those so inclined. Among UBS's favorites are Nvidia; a rare-earth metals producer called Lynas; Honeywell; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing; Cognex for machine vision and Amphenol for sensors. Morgan Stanley likes Tesla, Nvidia, and Alphabet, and just published a Humanoid 100 index of companies making all sorts of robo-doodads, from planetary roller screws to harmonic reducers. For investors who want one-click exposure, there's the newly launched KraneShares Global Humanoid & Embodied Intelligence Index exchange-traded fund, which costs 0.69% a year.

It's entirely possible that this investing theme is both too late and too early; many of the stocks have run, and the production ramp might not hit big numbers for the better part of a decade. Personally, I'm an anti-themist, preferring to let an S&P 500 fund handle the Darwinian allocation of big companies strangling new markets for profits. But for the robo-curious, let me run through some basics.

Remember back when those videos popped up on YouTube with a headless four-legged robot from Boston Dynamics that could walk and jump and keep its balance when pushed? That was BigDog, created in 2005, with funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa. It never made it out of boot camp; the gasoline engine was deemed too loud for combat, and a battery version couldn't carry enough weight.

Today, for $1,600 in China, or $2,500 on Amazon.com, you can buy a UniTree Go2 robot dog that can run, sit, shake hands, stand on its front legs and kick its back legs in the air, and even move autonomously, once the space has been mapped with Lidar. Amazon's page calls this a toy. UniTree calls it a partner.

For $16,000 in China, or just over $27,000 with U.S. shipping from RobotShop.com, you can step up to the UniTree G1 Humanoid Robot — humanoid meaning humanlike in appearance, with two arms, two legs, a head, and optional dexterous hands. UniTree calls this an agent. It can hop on one leg, crack nuts, open bottles, and flip pancakes — not simultaneously, so far as I know. One thing it can't do, at just over four feet tall, is reach top shelves. There's a much more advanced version that's nearly six feet tall, called H1, that starts at $90,000 in China.

Robots aren't new as an investing theme. In a 2013 article on the subject, I highlighted three industrial players. Since then, Rockwell Automation and Switzerland's ABB have quadrupled shareholder money in dollar terms. Germany's Kuka was bought out by China's Midea, an appliance maker, in 2016. In a 2017 cover story on robots I mentioned those stocks along with the Robo Global Robotics & Automation ETF, which has since underperformed the market; Japan's Fanuc, which has managed to lose money; Amazon and Alphabet, which have been winners; and a chip maker that was still five years away from becoming mostly an artificial intelligence player. "Chips from companies with videogame expertise, like Nvidia, make quick work of the heavy thinking," I wrote. That one is up more than 5,000%.

Those stories were mostly about hulking mechanical factory arms that perform specific, repetitive tasks. The rise of robots in humanoid form makes sense in part because, as Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang has explained it, "We built the world for ourselves." Early versions can perform factory work like sorting items and carrying boxes. The endgame, according to Morgan Stanley, is lifelike robots performing generalist roles: think firefighting, nursing, cleaning, and companionship. It reckons that by 2050, capable humanoid robots will cost around $50,000 in rich countries, and $15,000 in low- and middle-income ones.

China's players are getting a government nudge. Last year, the country's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for humanoid robot production, with the goal of making them an important element of economic growth by 2027. In the U.S., Tesla plans to release a humanoid robot called Optimus by next year, costing less than a car. One way to compare humanoid robots is with hand movement, and what's called degree of freedom. Human hands have a DoF of 27. The entry-level UniTree robot can be upgraded to a DoF of seven. Tesla's latest Optimus prototype has one of 22.

The highest-value part of humanoid robots will likely be the data models, called VLA for vision-language-action. These can be trained using videos and simulated data, but the best model training comes from time-consuming laboratory work involving humans wearing sensors. China has a manpower advantage there, analysts say, while the U.S. leads on chips. Tesla has an opportunity to become an integrated robot maker that controls its own VLA model. Other hopefuls include America's privately held Figure, and China's UBTech and AgiBot.

Big, diversified tech companies with robot exposure might be safer bets than niche players. One thing all humanoid robots are likely to need is magnets, and those require rare earth metals like neodymium and praseodymium, of which supplies are limited, and largely China-based. Australia's Lynas is a key producer of both of these, and another UBS favorite. Lynas and a U.S. rare-earths player called MP Materials are top-five holdings in the aforementioned KraneShares ETF.

UBS expects the humanoid robot arrival to begin with a trickle — perhaps only two million units worldwide by 2035 — but to quickly become a flood as prices fall and capabilities improve. Maybe by then I'll be ready to try again at robot companionship. The last unit I befriended, a knockoff Roomba, kept trying to throw itself down the stairs.

Write to Jack Hough at jack.hough@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

The long-anticipated Tesla robotaxi project is set to begin a limited rollout in Austin, Texas on 22 June.

The pilot will deploy 10 vehicles equipped with the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, marking the first time Tesla will offer autonomous rides to select users in a controlled urban environment.

The move aligns with Elon Musk’s earlier confirmation in May about launching the Robotaxi program this month, ahead of broader deployments in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The first driverless journey is expected to occur on 28 June—Musk’s birthday—with initial operations constrained to a geofenced zone within Austin.

Tesla has opted to use modified Model Y vehicles rather than the CyberCab, which was unveiled in October but has not yet been integrated into this launch phase.

Access to the service will be limited and by invitation only, with a small group of influencers and stakeholders invited to experience early rides.

Tesla targets $2 trillion valuation from autonomous push

Elon Musk has been vocal about his vision for a driverless future since at least 2019 when he projected robotaxi launches by 2020.

That prediction fell short, but Tesla now appears closer than ever to delivering a commercial autonomous service.

Analysts, including Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, view the robotaxi debut as pivotal to Tesla’s long-term valuation, suggesting the company could surpass a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2026.

According to Ives, Tesla’s scale gives it a global advantage in the autonomous sector, with the potential to not only lead in self-driving transport but also license its FSD technology to other automakers.

The company has not yet confirmed if licensing deals are on the horizon, but the Austin launch may serve as a test case for evaluating the reliability and scalability of Tesla’s system.

Safety concerns rise after demonstration test fails

Despite the excitement, public safety concerns are mounting.

Earlier this month, a group known as The Dawn Project, which campaigns for safer tech implementation, conducted a demonstration involving a Tesla Model Y using FSD software.

In the test, the car reportedly failed to stop for a stationary school bus and struck a child-sized mannequin, highlighting concerns over the real-world performance of autonomous features.

The Dawn Project is led by Dan O’Dowd, founder of Green Hills Software, a company that supplies safety technology to Tesla’s competitors.

While some have questioned the motivations behind the campaign, the incident has nonetheless intensified calls for stricter scrutiny.

Tesla’s FSD and FSD Supervised systems have been linked by NHTSA to numerous accidents and fatalities, but debate remains over how much fault lies with the software versus human drivers.

Investigations have found that driver inattention, combined with system limitations, contributed to these incidents.

Texas lawmakers urge Tesla to delay launch to 1 September

The regulatory environment in Texas presents additional complications.

A group of Democratic lawmakers recently sent a letter to Tesla requesting that the robotaxi launch be postponed until 1 September.

That date coincides with the introduction of a new state law governing autonomous vehicles.

In the letter addressed to Tesla’s field quality director, the lawmakers cited public safety and regulatory compliance as their primary concerns.

They asked the company to provide detailed documentation demonstrating how it plans to adhere to the new legal requirements, should it proceed with the planned launch.

Tesla has not formally responded to the letter, but the company’s track record of pushing forward despite resistance suggests the launch will likely go ahead as planned.

Public protests have already taken place in Austin, and further demonstrations could coincide with the debut of the service on 22 June.

Tesla is set to start opening its showrooms in India in July as its first batch of vehicles has arrived in the country, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing certain documents and people familiar with the discussions.

The electric vehicle maker plans to open its first showroom in Mumbai around mid-July, followed by another showroom in New Delhi, sources told Bloomberg.

The Model Y vehicles shipped to India were produced in China, and the company also imported components, merchandise and spare parts from the US, China and the Netherlands, according to the report.

Tesla did not immediately respond to MT Newswires' request for comment.

• Tesla will be the exclusive partner at Electrify Expo LA for the Electrify Weekender program with additional automakers to be announced for future cities
• Electrify Weekender is an extended test drive program exclusive to Electrify Expo attendees where they can take their EV of choice home and experience how it fits in their everyday life

LOS ANGELES, June 20, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Electrify Expo, North America’s largest electric vehicle (EV) and technology festival, today announced Electrify Weekender, an extended test drive program exclusively available to Electrify Expo attendees giving them the opportunity to extend their EV experiences beyond the gates of the festival and further familiarize themselves with EV technology building buyer confidence before making a purchase. The program kicks off with Tesla as the exclusive partner at Electrify Expo Los Angeles on June 21-22.

“Electrify Weekender gives people the freedom to experience EVs on their own terms,” said BJ Birtwell, founder and CEO of Electrify Expo. “At our festivals, thousands of attendees get their first taste of EVs through hands-on demos, and that’s often the spark that starts their journey. With Weekender, we’re extending that experience into real life. Giving people more time behind the wheel builds confidence, and confidence drives adoption. This program is about breaking outdated myths, reaching new audiences and showing how EVs seamlessly fit into everyday life. My first EV experience was in a Tesla, so launching this with them feels like a full-circle moment. Now it’s time for others to have that same ‘light bulb’ moment.”

Tesla has been the industry leader delivering high-performance vehicles and innovative models. With Tesla’s large role in shaping the industry, the collaboration with Electrify Weekender marks another milestone in the company’s investment in EV accessibility and adoption.

Attendees may sign up for the extended test drive program ahead of time or on-site at the festival. After selecting their preferred model, information is passed to the automaker who coordinates with local stores to schedule a two day driving experience.

Participate in Electrify Weekender

Interested in a longer experience with an EV of your choice following your demos at Electrify Expo? Find more information about the test drive program and participating automakers near you at https://www.electrifyexpo.com/weekender.

Electrify Expo’s Remaining 2025 Tour Stops:

• June 21-22: Los Angeles, CA
• July 12-13: Seattle, WA
• August 23-24: San Francisco, CA
• September 13-14: Chicago, IL **new city
• October 17-19: New York, NY
• November 15-16: Dallas, TX **new city

For the full 2025 schedule and to secure tickets, visit www.electrifyexpo.com. Media interested in attending may request credentials by emailing ee@skyya.com.

Companies interested in exhibiting at the 2025 Electrify Expo locations can visit https://www.electrifyexpo.com/partner-registration.

About Electrify Expo

Electrify Expo is North America’s largest electric vehicle (EV) and technology festival, where consumers come to shop and experience all things electric. The festival showcases the industry's leading brands and exciting startups through hands-on activations, demos and experiences spanning EVs, micromobility, solar energy, charging solutions, powersports, automotive aftermarket, and connected home technology, providing attendees with immersive learning opportunities and memorable interactions. From high-powered demo courses to engaging education zones, Electrify Expo offers a unique festival vibe for consumers to reshape what they think they know about EVs. In 2025, Electrify Expo’s nationwide tour will visit Orlando, Phoenix, Dallas, Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and New York. To stay up to date on the latest news and announcements from Electrify Expo, visit www.electrifyexpo.com and follow on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.

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Electrify Weekender Launch with Tesla in Los Angeles

Electrify Weekender is an extended test drive program exclusive to Electrify Expo attendees where they can take their EV of choice home and experience how it fits in their everyday life