TD Cowen says SEC likely to forge on with crypto rules without Democratic commissioners in the new year

Customers affected by crypto exchange FTX's collapse will be able to receive bankruptcy distributions through Kraken and BitGo as its plan is set to be effective on Jan. 3, 2025.

The "initial distribution" is expected to happen within 60 days of the effective date, FTX said on Monday in a statement.

"For the past two years, our team of professionals have meticulously and efficiently worked to recover billions of dollars to reach this point," said FTX Debtors CEO John J. Ray lll. "The Plan becoming effective in January 2025 and the start of distributions are reflections of the outstanding success of the recovery efforts."

Earlier, a representative of the largest FTX creditor group Sunil Kavuri noted that FTX posted two distribution partners, Kraken and BitGo, with a third coming soon. Funds can also be distributed through stablecoins, Kavuri added. 

FTX, Kraken and BitGo did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Judge John Dorsey in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware approved FTX's bankruptcy plan in October, two years after the exchange filed for bankruptcy. Under the plan, 98% of creditors will receive at least 118% of their claim value in cash.

About 94% of creditors in the “dotcom customer entitlement claims” class who returned their ballots — representing about $6.83 billion in claims by value — voted in favor of the reorganization plan, according to previous The Block reporting.

The plan also garnered criticism from Kavuri who said the estate should pay out cryptocurrencies in kind rather than the dollar value when the exchange filed for bankruptcy back in 2022.

FTX filed for bankruptcy in late 2022. The exchange's CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, was found guilty in November 2023 of seven criminal counts, including two counts each of wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, and was sentenced to nearly 25 years in prison. Sister trading firm Alameda also subsequently fell, and its CEO Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years for her role in the downfall of FTX.

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Renewed interest in XRP and excitement over the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin launch have driven a significant increase in user activity for Xaman, a self-custodial wallet built for the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem.

The number of active weekly users on Xaman has surged 250% since summer, topping 212,000 active users last week, Xaman chief operating officer Robert Kiuru told Cointelegraph.

The spike in user activity on Xaman reflects a renewed interest in the XRPL ecosystem amid the ongoing rally of XRP and community anticipation of the Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin launch.

Launched in March 2020, Xaman was formerly known as Xumm and has received indirect investment from Ripple’s investment arm Xpring, which rebranded to Ripplex in October 2020.

80,000 new users join Xaman amid XRP rally

As of December 2023, Xaman had around 80,000 active weekly users, which dipped to 60,000 users during summer 2024.

Xaman’s recent spike in user activity was driven by 80,000 newly signed-up users and many returning users as XRP briefly revisited the position of the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap on Dec. 2.

The United Kingdom may see crypto asset regulation in 2026, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said. In its latest step in that direction, the FCA has released a discussion paper on admissions and disclosures and market abuse regulation.

What to admit and how

Under government plans, the FCA’s authority will be extended beyond its current Anti-Money Laundering and promotions supervision to include crypto asset trading, stablecoin regulation, intermediation, custody, and other activities.

Tokenized financial instruments, security tokens and investment vehicles are already covered by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Regulated Activities) Order (RAO) 2001.

The FCA foresees allowing crypto asset offerings only through exemptions:

Once an exemption is made, due diligence and disclosures are carried out, leading to the asset’s admission to the CATP at its discretion. Public disclosures will be required to meet certain standards, otherwise, “we can use our power […] to direct a firm to provide compensation in relation to breaches of the financial promotions regime.”

Who stops the abusers?

A civil market abuse regime exists for traditional finance in the United Kingdom, but it has already been determined that the regime cannot be transferred directly to crypto assets. The FCA acknowledged the influence of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) crypto and digital asset market recommendations on its proposals.

TL;DR

Where Is XRP Headed Next?

The cryptocurrency market has been booming in the past month, with Ripple’s XRP among the top performers. Its price exploded by approximately 120% for that period, briefly becoming the third-biggest digital asset.

In the past few weeks, though, XRP experienced severe volatility, with its valuationplungingbelow $2 and later spiking above $2.50. Currently, it is worth around $2.36, which represents a 2.5% decline on a 24-hour scale.

Numerous market observers think XRP could be poised for another major rally soon. The X user JAVON MARKS predicted a potential price explosion based on the asset’s performance on a 4-hour scale.

Dark Defender chipped in on December 15, analyzing the same time frame. The strategist highlighted the price push above $2.50, maintaining that the asset might be headed to $2.72. Additionally, Dark Defender set $5.85 and $8.76 as short-term targets, outlining $2.29, $2.24, $2.10, and $2.02 as major support zones.

X user Bark made a bullish forecast, too, seeing XRP jumping to a new all-time high of $5. Such a spike would require the token’s market cap to cross $265 billion. A few months ago, an increase of that type seemed unlikely given the fact that XRP was worth less than $0.60, while its capitalization stood at around $30 billion. However, things look quite different now, and we have yet to see whether the bull run will continue in the near future.XRP Metrics on a Downfall

Despite the optimistic predictions, some important indicators suggest that the bulls may take a blow soon. The latest data shows that the number of XRP payments from one account to another, active accounts, executed XRP transactions, and newly activated accounts have sharply declined in the past 24 hours.

Fewer users joining the ecosystem can lead to reduced buying pressure, potentially lowering the demand for the asset and negatively affecting its price. Additionally, a decrease in executed transactions indicates lower utility for XRP. This reduction in activity might discourage speculative investors, further weakening demand.

Crypto analyst TradinSides has suggested that it might be time for investors to start closing their XRP long positions. This came as the analyst revealed a bearish pattern, which showed that the XRP price could witness a significant crash. 

XRP Price Could Crash As Head And Shoulder Pattern Forms

In a TradingView post, TradinSides predicted that XRP could crash as the price could form the Head and Shoulders pattern, driving the crypto to $2.2 or below. The analyst stated that this price correction could happen if some bullish fundamentals don’t happen for the altcoin as expected. The fundamentals that TradinSides cited include the RLUSD stablecoin and the upcoming XRP ETFs. 

While these fundamentals present a bullish outlook for the XRP price, the crypto analyst stated that XRP still stands under heavy selling pressure due to the SEC’s decision to appeal the Ripple case ruling, which is impacting demand and market sentiment. TradinSides alluded to SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s reappointment and how it could ultimately impact the Ripple case and the XRP price. 

The analyst noted that Crenshaw’s reappointment is set for December 18. However, if Crenshaw’s renomination fails, Donald Trump could nominate a new Commissioner. Crenshaw’s renomination is significant as the SEC must file its opening brief in the appeal case on January 15. 

If she is reappointed, she could vote in favor of the Commission filing its opening brief since she has been known to take an anti-crypto stance on several occasions. The crypto analyst believes the altcoin could face selling pressure if the SEC pursues the appeal. 

On the other hand, if the SEC withdraws its appeal, TradinSides predicts that the Commission could also withdraw its appeal. This would lead the agency to approve the pending XRP ETF applications, which could drive demand up. If this doesn’t happen, the crypto analyst predicts that the Head and Shoulders pattern could drive the XRP price to $2.2.

The State Of Things

In an X post, crypto analyst Dark Defender provided an update on the current XRP price action. He stated that the 4-hour time frame confirms the break for XRP. The analyst added that the daily time frame will be confirmed above $2.52. Once XRP breaks above that level, Dark Defender predicts that the altcoin will then rally to $2.72. 

The crypto analyst also highlighted crucial targets to watch out for. He stated that $5.85 and $8.76 are short-term targets. Meanwhile, he mentioned that $2.29, $2.24, $2.10, and $2.02 are support levels to watch out for. Dark Defender has before now predicted that the XRP price would eventually reach $18 in this market cycle. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.41, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple Labs, has firmly positioned itself as one of the top-performing assets of 2024, with CNBC describing it as the “biggest winner of the Trump trade.”

Since Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, XRP’s price has surged 370 percent as investors anticipate a more favorable regulatory environment under the new administration.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.51, marking a 4.0 percent gain in the last 24 hours and a 6.0 percent increase over the past hour. Its market capitalization has soared to $144.30 billion, solidifying XRP’s position as the third-largest cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin and Ethereum.

While this milestone is noteworthy, it remains below XRP’s all-time high of $3.40, recorded on January 7, 2018.

Throughout most of 2024, XRP traded sideways with minimal volatility. From February through October, the price fluctuated below $0.80 as the crypto market struggled with regulatory uncertainty and reduced liquidity. However, the landscape shifted dramatically in late October when investors began pricing in expectations of a more crypto-friendly U.S. government under Trump’s leadership. XRP’s breakout in early November triggered a sharp, sustained rally, driving prices close to multi-year highs.

A major catalyst for XRP’s rally has been growing optimism around U.S. regulatory changes. With Trump’s return to the White House, expectations are mounting for a shift toward a more crypto-friendly environment. Since his victory, Trump has named several pro-crypto individuals to key positions in his administration, further bolstering market sentiment. David Sachs, a venture capitalist and former PayPal COO, has been appointed as the White House’s Crypto and AI Czar, signaling an increased focus on digital assets and emerging technologies. Additionally, Scott Besant has been selected as the Treasury Secretary, while Paul Atkins, a long-time advocate for lighter crypto regulation, has been nominated as the new SEC Chair.

Atkins’ nomination is particularly significant for Ripple Labs and XRP. The SEC’s ongoing lawsuit against Ripple, which alleges XRP is an unregistered security, has been a long-standing overhang on the asset’s price. Investors are hopeful that a more lenient SEC under Atkins’ leadership could resolve or even drop the case, clearing the way for broader XRP adoption.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, Ripple announced on December 16, 2024, that its much-anticipated stablecoin, RLUSD (Ripple USD), will launch globally on December 17, 2024. RLUSD is designed as an enterprise-grade stablecoin pegged 1:1 with the U.S. dollar. It aims to enhance institutional liquidity, trust, and compliance within Ripple’s ecosystem.

Ripple confirmed that RLUSD will initially be available on several major platforms, including MoonPay, Uphold, CoinMENA, Bitso, and Archax, with additional partners to follow. The stablecoin will debut on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum blockchain, ensuring broad accessibility and interoperability.

Ripple CTO David Schwartz previously cautioned the community about potential supply shortages in RLUSD’s early days, which could lead to temporary price volatility. He reassured users that any short-term deviations would stabilize quickly, as arbitrage mechanisms bring RLUSD’s value back to its intended $1 peg. Schwartz emphasized that the stablecoin’s core purpose is to maintain price stability, warning against irrational speculative behavior.

XRP’s price surged immediately following Ripple’s RLUSD announcement, reflecting heightened optimism about its role in Ripple’s growing ecosystem. Some XRP community members speculate that RLUSD could indirectly drive demand for XRP, particularly as the stablecoin enhances liquidity and adoption for institutional cross-border payments.

With XRP already up 370 percent since Trump’s election victory and now trading above $2.50, investors are watching closely to see whether this rally can reclaim XRP’s all-time high of $3.40.

XRP’s strong price performance in 2024 has been fueled by multiple factors: renewed regulatory optimism under the Trump administration, the anticipated resolution of Ripple’s legal challenges, and growing excitement surrounding RLUSD. As the stablecoin launches and institutional adoption gains momentum, Ripple’s ecosystem appears well-positioned to capitalize on this wave of enthusiasm.

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