Swiss Franc Firms Slightly

EUR/USD

• 1.1800 (EUR 1.99 bn)
• 1.1650 (EUR 976.48 mn)
• 1.1575 (EUR 892.51 mn)

USD/JPY

• 156.00 (US$ 1.67 bn)
• 155.00 (US$ 1.73 bn)
• 153.00 (US$ 778.82 mn)

GBP/USD

• 1.3500 (GBP 500.00 mn)
• 1.3050 (GBP 740.00 mn)

USD/CHF

• 0.8020 (US$ 180.00 mn)
• 0.7975 (US$ 100.00 mn)

USD/CAD

• 1.3940 (US$ 1.12 bn)

AUD/USD

• 0.6665 (AUD 301.57 mn)
• 0.6595 (AUD 400.22 mn)
• 0.6475 (AUD 864.67 mn)

NZD/USD

• 0.5730 (NZD 926.14 mn)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8845 (EUR 200.11 mn)
• 0.8590 (EUR 175.00 mn)

Justin prepared a weekly overview before leaving for the holidays here. For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The Swiss franc strengthened toward 0.80 per USD, holding near 2021-highs, supported by expectations of no imminent rate cuts and increased safe-haven demand.

Swiss CPI unexpectedly flattened over a year ago in November and the underlying measure slowed to a four-year low, marking the second successive surprise for SNB officials, following a slowdown in October.

This evolution raises significant concerns for the central bank, which expected an average inflation rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter.

SNB officials have signaled a high threshold for negative rates but readiness to act, with inflation expected to tick up slightly in the coming quarters.

With rates already at zero, policymakers would avoid further cuts that could strain the financial system.

In starting off, Credit Agricole points to the notion that the dollar has typically performed poorly in December - noting that the greenback has dropped in ~70% of the last 25 years. The trend is particularly evident against the CHF while the dollar has largely held up only against the likes of the JPY and CAD.

Well, they're not wrong as December is the worst performing month for USD/CHF as seen by the seasonal heatmap below:

Credit Agricole notes that year-end weakness in the dollar typically stems from repatriation flows by foreign investors in USD-denominated assets, alongside exporters bringing back dollar revenues to their home currencies.

And coupled with the fundamental backdrop of rising global trade flows, which typically correlates negatively with the dollar, the firm expects additional dollar selling this year in December. Credit Agricole points to these flows being somewhat similar to what we saw in Q1 2025 when there was a frontrunning in terms of US exports before tariffs that triggered negative hedging and repatriation flows in the dollar.

Besides that, the firm also anticipates that record foreign inflows into US equities and fixed income in 2025 should boost year-end profit repatriation. In other words, they expect that to contribute to increased outflows from the dollar before we turn the calendar page to 2026. All part of corporate window dressing of course, in all likelihood. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Swiss franc traded around 0.80 per USD, holding close to 2021-highs, supported by expectations that the SNB will maintain current interest rates for an extended period and improving trade relations with the US. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.00% potentially until 2027, amid forecasts of rising inflation.

Switzerland’s GDP fell by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2025, reversing the upwardly revised 0.2% growth seen in the previous quarter and compared to forecasts of a 0.4% decline.

However, the recent reduction in US tariffs eases some downside risks for the economy, which is expected to recover in the coming quarters.

EUR/USD

• 1.1680 (EUR 1.30 bn)
• 1.1625 (EUR 1.39 bn)
• 1.1500 (EUR 1.50 bn)

USD/JPY

• 155.00 (US$ 761.93 mn)

GBP/USD

• 1.3435 (GBP 282.82 mn)

USD/CHF

• 0.8050 (US$ 408.74 mn)
• 0.7870 (US$ 212.00 mn)

USD/CAD

• 1.4200 (US$ 519.71 mn)
• 1.4120 (US$ 723.08 mn)
• 1.3970 (US$ 770.60 mn)
• 1.3900 (US$ 693.89 mn)

AUD/USD

• 0.6550 (AUD 3.03 bn)

NZD/USD

• 0.5480 (NZD 1.01 bn)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8810 (EUR 409.27 mn)

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The Swiss franc traded slightly above 0.80 per USD, but remained close to 2021-highs, supported by expectations of no imminent cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

Market participants still place their bets on the SNB keeping its policy rate at 0% in December amid forecasts of rising inflation.

The franc also benefits from a new tariff agreement between the Swiss government and the Trump administration, reducing the US tariff from 39% to 15%.