Strategy won’t face Bitcoin liquidation in the next bear market: Willy Woo

On-chain data shows signs of an altcoin winter may be emerging as Ethereum, Solana, and other cryptocurrencies have seen a decline in activity.

Altcoins Are Observing A Drop In On-Chain Activity

In a new thread on X, institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock) has talked about how interest in altcoins has been cooling off recently.

The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Active Addresses,” which measures, as its name suggests, the total number of addresses that are participating in some kind of transaction activity on a given network every day.

When the value of this metric rises, it means more users are making transfers on the blockchain. Such a trend implies trading interest in the cryptocurrency may be on the rise.

On the other hand, the indicator witnessing a decline suggests investors may be shifting their attention elsewhere as they are reducing their transaction activity on the network.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator for Ethereum, the largest of the altcoins, over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum Active Addresses metric was at a high of 589,000 in late July. Since then, activity on the network has gone downhill, with there now being 488,000 addresses making transactions, around 17% lower than the peak.

“Fewer users interacting on ETH indicates weaker on-chain demand, a pattern seen in past bear-market phases,” explained Sentora. Solana, another prominent altcoin, has been showing a similar trend.

The co-creator of the Ethereum-scaling solution ZKsync has proposed a major overhaul of its governance token, arguing it should prioritize “economic utility.”

In a post on Tuesday to the ZKsync forum, Alex Gluchowski argued that while its ZKsync (ZK) governance token was effective in the project’s early stages as the “architecture and adoption path were still forming,” the network has since rapidly evolved. 

He said it now hosts an ecosystem of interconnected zero-knowledge chains and it is important that ZKsync’s token captures network value and drives further ecosystem adoption. 

Gluchowski, who is also the co-founder and CEO of Matter Labs, the firm behind ZKsync, emphasized that funds must flow back into the “network’s economy,” as this will enable continual infrastructure upgrade, security enhancements, public goods funding and “long-term independence.”

“The design goal is to establish a self-reinforcing economic loop where adoption increases network resources, and those resources in turn enhance the network for all participants,” he wrote.

New tokenomics tied to revenue

Gluchowski outlined that the revamped ZK token would derive value onchain from avenues like protocol-native fees, generated from “interoperability and other core settlement and messaging functions,” and offchain via licensing agreements for “enterprise software components.”

In terms of the licensing deals, ZKsync’s stack is free to use as it is open-source. However, Gluchowski argued that when large enterprises adopt “community-built infrastructure” for complex uses such as treasury integrations, there should be agreements in place to provide value back to the ecosystem.

“When such capabilities are funded by the ecosystem, it is reasonable that their use by enterprise participants returns value to the ecosystem,” he wrote. 

Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $3,550. ETH is struggling below $3,400 and might decline further if it stays below $3,500.

• Ethereum started another bearish wave after it failed to clear $3,650.
• The price is trading below $3,500 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $3,450 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could continue to move down if it trades below $3,200.

Ethereum Price Dips Sharply

Ethereum price failed to stay in a positive zone and started a fresh decline below $3,550, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below $3,500 and $3,450 to enter a bearish zone.

The decline gained pace below $3,350. Finally, the bulls appeared near $3,050. A low was formed at $3,058 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $3,920 swing high to the $3,058 low.

Ethereum price is now trading below $3,400 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a decent increase, the price could face resistance near the $3,350 level. The next key resistance is near the $3,480 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $3,920 swing high to the $3,058 low. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $3,450 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

The first major resistance is near the $3,500 level. A clear move above the $3,500 resistance might send the price toward the $3,550 resistance. An upside break above the $3,550 region might call for more gains in the coming days. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $3,750 resistance zone or even $3,800 in the near term.

More Losses In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,500 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,250 level. The first major support sits near the $3,200 zone.

A clear move below the $3,200 support might push the price toward the $3,120 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,050 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,020 and $3,000.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $3,200

Major Resistance Level – $3,500

The White House carefully considered Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s pardon and went through the standard processes before sending it to President Donald Trump for his approval, says White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

Trump defended the pardon in an interview with CBS News’ 60 Minutes on Sunday, saying he had “no idea” who Zhao is and dismissed criticism of his pardon as politically motivated. 

Leavitt said in a briefing on Tuesday that Trump’s comments on Zhao in the interview were meant to convey that “he does not know him personally” and that the president “does not have a personal relationship with this individual.”

She added that the pardon was considered with “utmost seriousness” and went through a “thorough review process” by the Department of Justice and the White House Counsel’s office.

“There’s a whole team of qualified lawyers who look at every single pardon request that ultimately make their way up to the President of the United States,” she added. “He’s the ultimate final decision maker.”

Bitcoin price is gaining bearish pace below $103,500. BTC could continue to move down if it stays below the $103,500 resistance.

• Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $105,000 support.
• The price is trading below $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $103,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $100,000 zone.

Bitcoin Price Dips Again

Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $105,500 support level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below $104,000 and $103,500 to enter a bearish zone.

The decline was such that the price even spiked below the $100,000 support. A low was formed at $98,900 and the price is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $111,000 swing high to the $98,900 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls attempt a recovery wave, the price could face resistance near the $102,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $103,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $103,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The next resistance could be $105,000 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $111,000 swing high to the $98,900 low. A close above the $105,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $106,400 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $107,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $108,500 and $108,800.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $103,500 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support is near the $100,200 level. The first major support is near the $100,000 level.

The next support is now near the $98,800 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $96,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $95,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $100,200, followed by $100,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $103,500 and $105,000.

After failing to close the week above a crucial level, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to hold $100,000 as support, leading some analysts to suggest that this is the make-or-break moment for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Plunges To Physiological Barrier

On Tuesday, Bitcoin saw a 9% drop from its weekly opening, dropping to the $100,000 area for the first time in months. The flagship crypto has been trading above $105,000 since late June, hovering between $108,000-$120,000 over the past four months.

During the early October correction, BTC’s price briefly deviated below these crucial levels, hitting a three-month low of $102,000 before recovering. Since then, the cryptocurrency has struggled to reclaim the mid-zone of its local range, falling to the $106,000-$108,000 area multiple times in the daily timeframe.

As the price retested the $100,000 level, Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted that Bitcoin has now broken below its 10th of October low, which was “the last major level before the $98K low from the Middle Eastern war fud back in June.”

Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has two massive liquidity clusters on the longer timeframes. Per the chart, the first cluster sits around the $90,000 level, which also coincides with an open CME Gap from Q2.

Meanwhile, the second cluster sits around the all-time high area at $126,000. “Given that the market is looking weak now, a dump to fill the CME gap before reversal could happen,” the market watcher warned.

However, Ali Martinez suggested that a 5%-11% rebound from the current area is possible. The chart shows that Bitcoin has been trading between $101,300-$124,000 price range since May, bouncing from the lower boundary each time it was retested. If BTC holds this area, it could surge to at least $106,500 or $112,000, the analyst asserted.

BTC Retests 50-Week EMA

Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC had reached the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The analyst explained that after closing below the 21-week EMA, Bitcoin was deviating below its range lows for the fifth consecutive week.

The 21-week EMA has served as crucial support during pullbacks since late Q2. However, it was lost amid the recent market volatility. Last week, multiple analysts warned that closing above this level was crucial to turn it back into support and prevent a larger pullback.

Per the Tuesday post, the 50-week EMA, sitting around the $100,000 level, “would probably only get tagged on confirmed breakdown from $108k,” meaning that the flagship crypto will need to close the week above this level to maintain its current price range.

Similarly, Crypto Bullet pointed out that the 50-week MA retest was “the moment of truth” for BTC. Notably, the cryptocurrency has retested this indicator three times this cycle, marking the bottom of each corrective phase and the start of a new rally to a new all-time high (ATH).

The market watcher warned that losing this level would mean “it’s lights out” for the flagship cryptocurrency. However, a rebound from this area could set the stage for a price recovery and a potential bullish rally in late Q4.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $100,356, a 6% decline in the daily timeframe.