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By Nate Wolf
When a Wall Street firm slashes a stock's price target in half, it often comes with a warning to dump your shares — or at least sit on the sidelines. Not today, at least not for Strategy stock.
In a research note Thursday, Cantor Fitzgerald dropped its target for Strategy shares to $229 from $560, a staggering 59% cut. Nonetheless, the firm reiterated an Overweight rating and counseled investors to ignore the "fear-mongering."
Strategy stock was down 1.5% to $183.20 in premarket trading Friday. After beginning the year on a tear, Strategy shares have fallen 36% in 2025, weighed down by falling cryptocurrency prices and threat of being booted from MSCI indexes.
The move from Cantor Fitzgerald perhaps reflects that, whether you love it or loathe it, Strategy isn't a normal stock. The company pioneered the so-called digital-asset treasury, all but shelving its software operating business to buy up some $60 billion worth of Bitcoin.
At its peak, the stock traded at a wide premium to the value of the Bitcoin it owned. But with Bitcoin now trading at around $91,000 apiece — down 28% from its all-time high in early October — Strategy's premium has narrowed. Where the stock goes next largely depends on Bitcoin, and Cantor Fitzgerald remains bullish on the cryptocurrency.
"Ultimately, we see this has a healthy pullback in crypto and Bitcoin," wrote analysts Brett Knoblauch and Gareth Garcetta. "Our long-term thesis for Bitcoin becoming a global reserve asset remains unchanged."
The dramatic pullback in prices likely isn't the start of a "crypto winter," the pair argued, as similar selloffs in the current cycle have seen Bitcoin reach new highs later on. More sustained downturns have started with a "black swan-type event," like the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2022. Cantor Fitzgerald doesn't see a similar shock this time around.
Some onlookers have worried Strategy will be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings to meet debt and dividend obligations. Cantor Fitzgerald says this fear isn't warranted absent a further 90% pullback in Bitcoin. The company's $8.2 billion in notional debt pales in comparison to its Bitcoin holdings.
Investors have also noted that Strategy isn't buying the crypto dip, which may appear strange for a company with a seemingly insatiable appetite for Bitcoin. But Strategy's model is only to buy Bitcoin when it will boost the stock's premium relative to its holdings, Knoblauch and Garcetta said. That isn't the case right now, they argued.
So why the 59% price-target cut? "We believe it is prudent to adjust our valuation," the pair wrote, pointing to the pullback in Bitcoin prices and the falling premiums every digital-asset treasury has experienced.
Essentially, everything is working against Strategy right now, but that won't always be the case.
Most analysts agree. Of the 18 firms polled by FactSet, 16 have a Buy or equivalent rating on the stock, and the average price target sits at $508.43. Even in a bearish environment for the stock, bears are hard to find on Wall Street.
Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Paribu has acquired CoinMENA, the largest local crypto exchange in the Middle East and North Africa, in a deal valued at up to $240 million as the Turkish company seeks to expand its cross-border presence.
The move gives Paribu — already one of Turkey’s leading crypto and fintech players — immediate, licensed access to two of the region’s most active regulatory regimes, the companies announced in a statement on Thursday.
Through CoinMENA, Paribu inherits a broker-dealer virtual asset service provider license from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) and a crypto asset service provider license from the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB).
In a market where licensing footprints have become strategic assets, Paribu said the acquisition positions it among the few regulated, multi-jurisdictional operators in the MENA region and supports its broader push toward compliance-led expansion.
"This transaction is a turning point not only for Paribu but also for the digital asset and broader finance ecosystem in Turkey and the MENA region," Paribu founder and CEO Yasin Oral said in the announcement. CoinMENA, he added, is "an ideal partner for our regional expansion."
CoinMENA’s founders, Talal Tabbaa and Dina Sam’an, framed the acquisition as the most significant milestone in the company’s history.
"By combining CoinMENA’s regional expertise with Paribu’s technology, we are poised to develop a comprehensive suite of digital asset products across Turkey and the MENA region," the co-founders said in a joint statement.
Founded in 2020, CoinMENA says it operates across 45 countries and serves more than 1.5 million users. It offers access to over 50 cryptocurrencies and has raised nearly $20 million from investors, including BECO, Arab Bank Switzerland, Circle, and Bunat Ventures. Its dual licenses in Bahrain and Dubai have made it one of the region’s prominent regulated exchanges.
Paribu, launched in 2017, has been building toward a multi-market strategy over the past two years. In 2024, it introduced Paribu Custody, described as Turkey’s first domestic digital asset custody provider using the firm’s ColdShield security infrastructure. This past October, Turkey’s Capital Markets Board authorized Paribu to establish a brokerage firm, marking its entry into the country’s capital markets ecosystem.
The CoinMENA acquisition folds neatly into that roadmap, as Paribu gains regional scale and regulatory reach, while CoinMENA gains deeper technology and infrastructure backing.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Ethereum is holding firmly above the $3,150 level as the market shifts into a more bullish phase after enduring weeks of heavy selling pressure and fear-driven liquidation. The recovery has sparked debate among analysts: some view the bounce as nothing more than a relief rally within a broader bearish trend, while others believe Ethereum may be building the foundation for a more sustained rebound.
A new CryptoQuant report offers one of the clearest insights. According to Ethereum data on Binance, the past several weeks have shown heightened volatility in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) — a metric that tracks real-time buying and selling pressure. This volatility reflects sharp, rapid shifts in trader behavior as the market attempts to stabilize.
Although Ethereum remains in a downtrend from its August peak, recent CVD spikes point to the return of notable buying activity. However, the report emphasizes that these bursts of demand are sporadic and lack the sustained strength needed to confirm a full bullish reversal.
CVD Volatility Highlights Ongoing Battle Between Buyers and Sellers
According to the Arab Chain report, Ethereum’s CVD recently turned positive, coinciding with the price’s attempt to stabilize above the $3,100 level. This shift indicates fresh liquidity entering the market through short-term buy orders, suggesting that some traders are stepping in to accumulate during dips.
However, the sudden spikes and rapid pullbacks within the CVD reveal that the market remains locked in a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This volatility underscores the fact that Ethereum has not yet reached either temporal stability or a clear structural trend.
The report also highlights the importance of the 30-day correlation between price and CVD, which has held steady at around 0.6 despite lower price levels. This relatively high reading shows that liquidity flows continue to influence Ethereum’s price direction in a meaningful and consistent way. Even though buying pressure appears irregular, its recurring impact on price suggests that traders are still actively responding to market conditions.
Overall, this pattern reflects investors attempting to capitalize on volatility, especially as anticipation grows around potential liquidity inflows tied to upcoming network upgrades. Yet, Arab Chain stresses that without a more sustained accumulation phase and reduced short-term selling, Ethereum may struggle to generate a decisive upward movement.
Ethereum Attempts a Recovery but Faces Key Resistance
Ethereum’s latest price action shows a cautious recovery as ETH climbs back above the $3,150 level, but the chart reveals that the broader structure remains fragile. After a steep decline from the October highs near $4,500, ETH found support slightly above $2,700, where buyers stepped back in with increased volume—visible in the recent surge of green candles at the bottom of the chart. This reaction suggests renewed interest at lower levels, but not yet a decisive shift in trend.
The price is now pressing against the 100-day SMA (red line), a level that previously acted as support and has now flipped into resistance. Reclaiming this line would be an important step toward restoring bullish momentum. Above it, ETH faces another barrier at the 50-day SMA (blue line), which continues to slope downward, reflecting ongoing medium-term selling pressure.
Despite the rebound, volume remains inconsistent, indicating hesitation among market participants. ETH will need stronger follow-through buying to challenge the next resistance zone around $3,300–$3,350, a region aligned with previous breakdown levels.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The latest Max Pain readout from CoinGlass finally provides a clear picture of where leveraged traders stand on XRP. The situation is more balanced than the social media drama usually suggests. The short side carries a larger dollar amount, with $12 million at the max-pain line of $2.28587.
However, that level is far from the current price. XRP is trading at around $2.07, so bears have a cushion of about 10% before they start to feel the heat. There is nothing urgent for them, just a clearly defined point they do not want the market to reach.BINANCE:XRPUSD by TradingView">
The long side has the opposite problem. Their max-pain marker sits nearly at the spot price, showing a distance of 0.91%. This means that any minor pullback, even within this slow range, will affect long exposure first.
It does not matter that bulls' money stack is not as large as the short side's — $7.59 million vs. $12 million — because the pressure is closer, and the market does not need a big move to test it.
$2.28 becomes real pressure line for XRP price
The chart tells the same story as the numbers on the board. XRP has been slipping aimlessly on the 12-hour time frame, forming a pattern that appears neutral but keeps both sides on edge.
If the XRP price increases and heads toward $2.20-$2.30, the short cluster will come into focus. Reaching $2.28 would be the first point at which bears would actually feel maximum risk, and not just theoretically.
Until then, the setup remains split. Longs face immediate proximity risk, while shorts carry a larger payout zone higher up. The indicator does not pick a winner; it only shows which levels attract the most attention. For now, the real tension sits between the spot price and the $2.28 threshold.
The U.S. Senate's push to advance landmark crypto market structure legislation has hit a late-year snag as negotiators work through three complex disputes, according to Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky.
In a post late Thursday, he said senators are working "very hard to get this done, but the closer they get, the more complex it becomes," adding, "I'm not betting on a markup this month."
Chervinsky described market structure legislation as "the most important crypto policy objective period," noting that the House already passed its version — the Clarity Act — in July, clarifying which tokens are non-securities, and how centralized platforms are regulated. In the Senate, the Banking Committee is responsible for the securities-law half of the bill while the Agriculture Committee works on the commodities-law half, with both publishing drafts this fall.
Before the legislation can advance, both committees must hold a markup — a formal session where lawmakers vote on amendments and decide whether to send the bill for a full Senate vote. Chervinsky said neither committee wants to move to markup until they are confident both drafts can secure a passing vote.
Three obstacles remain
The first major obstacle involves stablecoin yield. Chervinsky said banks are seeking to expand the "prohibition on interest" they negotiated into the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act, signed into law by President Trump earlier this year. That legislation bars issuers from paying holders any form of interest or yield. However, the provision is narrowly written, Chervinsky noted, and does not address non-yield rewards or yield paid by third parties — an interpretation banks now label a "loophole." Their push to broaden the restriction, he warned, could sway enough senators to jeopardize the bill entirely.
A second point of contention concerns conflicts of interest. Chervinsky said some Democrats have signaled they won't support market structure legislation unless it includes language restricting the president's family from involvement in crypto-related businesses. The politics behind the demand are "simple and obvious," he wrote, but negotiators have yet to find a solution that would allow the bill to proceed.
The third and most consequential dispute, in Chervinsky's view, is DeFi. He argued the bill should only regulate centralized platforms that hold user funds, and that its sole purpose regarding decentralized finance should be to protect it — particularly by ensuring software developers are shielded from being treated as intermediaries.
Some traditional finance firms like Citadel, he noted, are pushing Congress to classify developers, validators, and other DeFi parties as regulated intermediaries — a stance he sees as an attempt to preserve their "regulatory moat." Without strong developer protections, Chervinsky said, there is no market structure bill, recalling past actions involving Tornado Cash developers and decentralized exchange builders.
Given the lingering disputes and the limited number of legislative days remaining, Chervinsky cautioned that the process is likely to continue into January. "There's nothing more important than getting this right," he said. "We won't have a second chance."
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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