South African Rand Firms Slightly

The South African rand traded around 17.5 per USD, its lowest level since October 10, tracking a decline in prices of precious metals, particularly gold, amid reduced expectations of further US rate cuts.

Domestically, an interest rate cut at the South African Reserve Bank’s November meeting appears unlikely, with the central bank still prioritizing efforts to pull inflation expectations down to 3%.

In July, the central bank signaled that it is implicitly aiming for inflation near the lower bound of its 3%–6% target range.

South Africa’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in September 2025 from 3.3% in August, but coming slightly below market forecasts of 3.5%.

The rand is still up nearly 7% so far this year, supported by subdued inflation, the central bank’s credibility, an improved fiscal outlook and the stability of the coalition government.

This is despite the country's slow economic growth and heightened geopolitical risks since President Trump took office.

The South African rand weakened to around 17.3 per USD, the lowest level since October 22, as the dollar gained ground following Fed's Powell cautious tone.

While policymakers delivered a widely-expected rate cut, Powell noted that a December cut is not guaranteed, prompting investors to trim bets on a December rate cut.

Meanwhile, traders weighed the trade deal made by US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, given China’s role as a key partner for South Africa.

The South African rand appreciated to around 17.1 per USD, reaching the highest level since January 2023, mainly supported by rising prices of key precious metals, particularly gold, platinum and palladium.

The risk-sensitive rand was buoyed by expectations of a 25 bps reduction in US rates, likely to widen yield differentials and draw investors toward higher-yielding South African assets.

Optimism over the outcome of Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping also provided support.

The South African rand rose further to around 17.2 per USD, the highest since September 2024, following the removal of the country's removal from a watchdog’s dirty-money list. The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force announced on Friday that South Africa, along with Nigeria, Mozambique, and Burkina Faso, has been removed from its list of jurisdictions under enhanced monitoring.

This comes in response to the affected governments’ increased efforts to tackle money laundering and terrorist financing.

The South African rand edged up toward 17.3 per USD, amid rising prices of gold and as traders turned their focus to consumer price inflation due this week.

Inflation is expected to see a slight acceleration to 3.5% in September from 3.3% in the prior month.

Attention was also on a possible removal of South Africa from the Financial Action Taskforce’s “grey” list. The global anti-money laundering watchdog FATF will hold its plenary meeting from Wednesday, 22 October, to Friday, 24 October.

The South African rand weakened slightly to around 17.4 per USD, amid a stronger US dollar and declining prices of precious metals, including gold.

The pullback came as U.S.-China trade concerns eased, with Trump calling a proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods “unsustainable,” signaling a possible easing ahead of his meeting with Xi.

Meanwhile, local investors shifted their focus to the release of September consumer price inflation next week for clues about inflationary pressures in the country, with analysts anticipating a slight acceleration to 3.5% from 3.2% in August.