Singapore Shares Fall 0.4% Amid Lingering Uncertainty Over U.S. Tariff TalksMarket Talk

South Korea's benchmark Kospi edges 0.2% higher at 2551.70 in early trade, as battery and shipbuilding stocks advance. Retail and institutional investors are net buyers. Battery-material supplier Posco Future M rises 2.6%. Electric-vehicle battery maker LG Energy Solution adds 1.3%. Shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean gains 2.7% ahead of its quarterly earnings release later in the day. Oil refiner S-Oil is 0.6% higher after its below-consensus 1Q earnings report. USD/KRW is almost flat at 1,436.25, compared with Friday's Seoul onshore trading close of 1,436.50. South Korea's 10-year government bond yield is down 4.7 bps at 2.576%. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar as traders weigh U.S. economic data released Friday and U.S.-China trade tensions. The University of Michigan's closely watched sentiment index fell from 57 in March to 52.2 in April. This probably reflects ongoing worries over the economic outlook, two members of Sucden Financial's research team say in a research report. However, there are hopes of reduced U.S.-China trade tensions, they add. The WSJ reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that China's government has exempted some U.S. imports from its most recent 125% increases in tariff rates. USD/KRW edges 0.1% lower to 1,437.39; AUD/USD is down 0.1% at 0.6385; USD/SGD is little changed at 1.3148. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting April 28.

The first estimate of U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product and jobs data for April will be closely watched as investors look for evidence of how much President Trump's tariff plans have hurt the economy.

In Europe, focus will center on eurozone GDP and inflation data. In Asia, a Bank of Japan decision is due alongside a flurry of Chinese economic data.

After a great deal of uncertainty and volatile trading recently, investors will be hoping for further signs of improving trading relations between the U.S. and China.

U.S.

The first estimate of U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday will reveal the extent to which the anticipation of trade tariffs hurt the economy between January and March.

Weak data could add to expectations that the Federal Reserve is set to resume cutting interest rates this year.

Analysts say the GDP figures could show a contraction, although some expect that demand could have held up well enough to prevent this. The economy is expected to have been hurt by a jump in imports as businesses anticipated new import tariffs.

Economists at Investec pointed out, however, that there is a great deal of uncertainty over this data, with a "large range of estimates" from various commentators.

Friday's monthly jobs data for April will similarly attract attention. Jobs were much stronger than expected in March and investors will be watching to see if this trend has been reversing.

"Tightening labor supply due to slowing immigration will constrain employment growth even if latest weekly data on jobless claims and job postings has remained surprisingly stable despite the tariff uncertainty," analysts at Danske Bank said in a note.

JOLTS job openings data for March on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls data on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday will give further evidence on the health of the U.S. labor market.

Other key data this week will be March PCE data--the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation--on Wednesday, as well as forward-looking data in the form of the ISM manufacturing index for April on Thursday and the Conference Board's consumer confidence indicator for April on Tuesday. The Case-Shiller house price index for February is due Tuesday.

No auctions for notes or bonds are due in the coming week but there could be a lot of focus on the Treasury's quarterly refunding meeting.

Analysts at Barclays Research expect unchanged auction sizes. They also expect the Treasury to reiterate that it is maintaining issuance for at least the next several quarters while emphasizing that it is in no rush to start tilting issuance towards longer-dated bonds.

CANADA

Canadian gross domestic product data for February on Wednesday will be scrutinized for further evidence of a weak economy due to Trump's tariff policies.

The big focus in Canada, however, will be on the country's general election on April 28.

EUROZONE

The week will see the usual end-of-month flurry of data, including closely-watched inflation prints as well as flash estimate GDP data for the first quarter. Thursday is Labor day holiday in most of continental Europe.

While inflation has been on a slowing trend, GDP data will give a first insight into a full quarter of activity after Trump took office in January.

GDP data will come from Spain on Tuesday, France, Germany and the eurozone on Wednesday.

Flash estimate inflation data are due from Spain on Tuesday, France, Italy and Germany on Wednesday, followed by the eurozone on Friday.

Eurozone consumer and business confidence surveys will be published on Tuesday along with Germany's GfK consumer climate survey. On Wednesday, French consumer spending data are due.

Friday will also see Italian, French, German and eurozone manufacturing PMI indicators for April.

Unemployment figures from Spain are due on Monday, followed by Germany on Wednesday, then Italy and the eurozone on Friday.

Belgium will hold a bond auction on Monday. Italy will launch a new 10-year BTP on Tuesday, alongside the reopening of a five-year BTP and a floating-rate note. Germany will auction a combined 2 billion euros in 2041- and 2044-dated Bunds.

U.K.

Data from the Bank of England on consumer lending, mortgage lending and mortgage approvals for March are due on Thursday, alongside the final reading of the purchasing managers' survey on manufacturing activity in April.

The U.K. plans to sell November 2054-dated index-linked gilts on Tuesday and March 2028 gilts on Wednesday.

SCANDINAVIA

Norway will hold a bond auction on Wednesday.

JAPAN

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% on Thursday. While the central bank is likely to hold steady for now, it remains on a rate-hike path amid strong domestic fundamentals, according to Barclays economists.

However, trade negotiations with the U.S.--particularly over tariffs--remain a source of uncertainty, the economists said. "We maintain our July rate hike call, but see risk of a delay."

The central bank will also release its quarterly outlook on growth and prices, as well as projections for the fiscal year ending March 2028 for the first time.

Industrial production data, due Wednesday, is expected to show a 0.3% on-month decline for March, compared with a 2.3% increase in February, according to a Quick poll. Retail sales and auto sales--key indicators of consumer demand--are also due Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

There are no scheduled Japanese government bond auctions or planned JGB purchases by the BOJ, which includes a public holiday on April 29.

CHINA

China's official and private PMI prints on Wednesday will offer a key read on the economy's performance in April.

The data will be the first major indicators released since U.S.-China tensions escalated into a full-blown tariff dispute.

March PMI data suggested some signs of green shoots, possibly due to frontloading ahead of tariffs. Whether that momentum has continued remains to be seen, especially with continuing volatility in U.S. trade policy announcements weighing on market sentiment.

Markets will be watching closely for any signals from Chinese policymakers on further stimulus or developments in trade talks. While Beijing disappointed markets by not announcing any large-scale support at its high-level Politburo meeting, officials emphasized readiness to roll out growth measures as needed.

Citi analysts say the Politburo's framing of the tariff disputes as "international economic and trade combat" suggests a proactive stance. "More significant trade weakness could open the room for more easing on both fiscal and monetary front," they said.

AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND

Australia's first-quarter inflation data, due Wednesday, will help shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate path.

ING economists expect a mixed picture, with rising food and electricity costs pushing the consumer price index higher, even as service prices moderate. Monthly inflation data from March showed easing price pressures, leaving the door open for the central bank to cut rates further.

Retail sales data, due Friday, will provide more insight into household spending trends in March. Meanwhile, developments ahead of Australia's federal election on May 3 may also influence market sentiment.

THAILAND

The Bank of Thailand is expected to cut its policy rate on Wednesday, as economic risks at home and abroad grow.

The BOT surprised markets with a rate cut in February, citing concerns about loan growth, household credit quality and currency stability. According to minutes from the February meeting, the central bank downgraded its 2025 growth forecast to slightly above 2.5%.

Thailand now faces additional challenges, including a 36% so-called reciprocal tariff imposed by the Trump administration and disruptions from a recent earthquake in neighboring Myanmar.

"Material growth risks will likely push" the Thai central bank to ease in April, Barclays economists said.

TAIWAN

Taiwan will report its first-quarter advance GDP on Wednesday, which would likely be the last reading that isn't impacted by U.S. tariffs. After growing 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the economy is expected to have expanded in the first quarter between 2.6% and 3.5%.

The island's export-dependent economy--home to major chip and hardware makers, like TSMC and Foxconn Technology--is seen to be particularly vulnerable to escalating trade tensions.

Despite a 90-day pause on tariffs announced by Trump, markets remain cautious. Taiwan's exports rose 18.6% in March, likely driven by U.S. customers frontloading purchases, ING economists said.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong is set to release its advance GDP for the first quarter and March retail sales on Friday. Investors will look for signs of a rebound as the city faces persistent domestic and external challenges.

Although the economy picked up modestly at the end of 2024, full-year growth fell short of the previous year due to soft local demand and global headwinds. The latest round of U.S. tariffs, which also apply to Hong Kong, has further clouded the outlook.

SOUTH KOREA

South Korea will release its April trade data on Thursday, followed by CPI figures on Friday.

ING economists expect exports to decline amid weaker-than-expected GDP and falling construction and equipment investment. Early trade data for April suggests a potential contraction in exports due to direct and indirect effects from U.S. tariffs. However, imports may fall even faster, likely keeping the trade balance in surplus.

The inflation report will be closely watched to see if the rate stays near the Bank of Korea's 2% target. The benchmark consumer-price index rose 2.1% in March, and a return to target could give the central bank more room to ease policy.

• Any references to days are in local times

• Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com

ASX200 increased to a 4-week high of 8010.00 Index Points.

Over the past 4 weeks, Australia Stock Market Index (AU200) gained 0.88%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 5.76%.

Equities in New Zealand rose 94 points, or 0.8%, to 12,112 in early deals on Monday, gaining for the third session as trading resumed after a long holiday week.

Most sectors moved into the green, mainly boosted by gains in healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary.

The NZX 50 neared its highest level in nearly two weeks, tracking a rally on Wall Street Friday, lifted by a sharp gain in tech stocks.

Traders continued to monitor the development of potential de-escalation in the US-China trade war.

Turning to key trading partner China, PMI data from official and private surveys will be released later this week.

Meanwhile, investors anticipate a slew of economic data from the US, including PCE inflation and the jobs report.

Some top-performing stocks among large caps were Fisher & Paykel (3.7%), Infratil (2.5%), ANZ Group (0.9%), Marsden Maritime Holdings (0.9%), Fonterra (0.7%), and Ebos Group (0.5%).

MARKET SNAPSHOT

U.S. stocks ended higher despite concerns over elevated trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Treasury yields fell on the day and on the week as President Trump backed away from threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while reports suggest the White House is considering easing its stance toward China. Oil was higher on the day, but lower for the week on oversupply concerns. The dollar rose while gold fell on the day and for three of the past four sessions.

MARKET WRAPS

EQUITIES

Stocks ended higher despite consumer-sentiment data registering one of its lowest levels on record.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded close to flat, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.7%.

The trade war is far from over, with Beijing saying it isn't in negotiations with Washington. Meanwhile, Alphabet's stock rose, helping push the tech-heavy Nasdaq higher while Intel fell about 7% after reporting a quarterly loss.

Earlier Friday, Chinese shares ended mixed as investors digested the latest messages from the country's Politburo meeting. The meeting didn't unveil new stimulus measures beyond what was already approved in March.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended 0.1% lower, the Shenzhen Composite Index put on 0.3%, and the ChiNext Price Index was 0.6% higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed 0.3% higher, with tech companies leading the gains.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average ended 1.9% higher as fears about U.S.-China trade tensions receded. Electronics stocks led the gains.

Stocks in Australia's S&P/ASX 200 and New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 were closed for the ANZAC Day holiday.

COMMODITIES

Oil futures ended the week lower with rekindled concerns about excess supply and disagreements among OPEC and its allies overshadowing signs of easing trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery on the day settled up 0.4% at $63.02 a barrel, but down 1.5% on the week. Brent crude rose 0.5% to $66.87 a barrel for a 1.6% weekly loss.

"Supply concerns intensified as traders focused on OPEC+'s cohesion," Quasar Elizundia of Pepperstone said, referring to Kazakhstan's reluctance to stick to its agreed output level.

April gold futures fell 1.5% to $3,282.40 per troy ounce Friday, making it 0.8% lower for the week.

Some analysts are questioning if gold's upward movement has peaked.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Trump Administration Lays Out Roadmap to Streamline Tariff Talks

WASHINGTON-U.S. officials plan to conduct staggered trade negotiations using a new template that sets common terms for many of the talks, according to people familiar with the plans.

In an attempt to streamline talks over President Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs, officials plan to use a framework prepared by the U.S. Trade Representative's office that lays out broad categories for negotiation: tariffs and quotas; non-tariff barriers to trade, such as regulations on U.S. goods; digital trade; rules of origin for products; and economic security and other commercial issues, according to people familiar with a draft document outlining the negotiating terms.

Within those categories, U.S. officials would spell out demands for individual nations, people familiar with the matter said, emphasizing that the document could change as the administration gets more input.

American Consumers Serve Up Bleak Outlook on Economy

American households ended April feeling much worse about the economy than they did in March, according to a closely watched measure of consumer sentiment.

The University of Michigan said Friday its final index of consumer sentiment for April was 52.2, down from 57 in March, a drop of 8% from the previous month. The index hit its lowest levels ever for Democrats and for independents.

The reading was a slight improvement on a preliminary print of 50.8 earlier in the month. A separate index measuring consumers' expectations for the future was down 32% since January. The survey said that was the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession.

Corporate Giants Shred Outlooks Over Tariff Uncertainty

The CEOs of American Airlines, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble and many other major U.S. companies warned that shape-shifting tariff threats make it virtually impossible to plan and are spooking consumers.

American, Southwest Airlines and Alaska Air Group told investors and analysts that leisure travel had already softened and pulled their full-year outlooks because the economic climate makes it too tough to forecast. Procter & Gamble, the maker of Pampers diapers and Tide detergent, said it was considering raising prices on some items. And auto-industry groups representing General Motors, Volkswagen and Toyota sent a letter to President Trump imploring him to reconsider the 25% tariff on car parts that goes into effect May 3, because it will make buying and repairing cars and trucks more expensive.

"We don't know what is going to happen," Robert Isom, chief executive of American, told investors and analysts on Thursday. So the airline is being cautious. "What does that mean? It means that we don't hire as much. It means that we don't bring on as many planes, potentially. It means a reduction in overall economic activity."

Federal Reserve, FDIC Pull Statements on Crypto

The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have withdrawn several statements regarding banks' crypto-related activities in an effort to support innovation and clarify current policies.

Two joint statements from 2023 on liquidity and other risks regarding banks' crypto-related activities were pulled on Thursday, the FDIC said. The move aims to clarify that banking organizations may engage in crypto activities so long as they are consistent with current laws and regulations. Banks may also provide products and services to people and firms engaged in crypto-related activities, the FDIC said.

Providing more clarity on banks' crypto activities in the coming weeks and months is being considered, the agencies said.

Deliveroo Gets $3.6 Billion Acquisition Offer From DoorDash

British food-delivery company Deliveroo said it received a proposal from DoorDash earlier this month to buy all of its shares for 1.8 pound sterling ($2.40) apiece.

Deliveroo said Friday that "it would be minded to recommend such an offer" to its shareholders, assuming an offer is made on those terms.

Based on Deliveroo's 1.5 billion outstanding shares, DoorDash's offer values the company at approximately GBP2.7 billion, or about $3.6 billion.

Colgate-Palmolive Cuts Outlook as Economic Uncertainty Spooks Shoppers

Colgate-Palmolive executives said consumers have been buying less toothpaste and soap as they brace for economic uncertainty, causing the company to lower its full-year earnings estimate.

"Uncertainty creates a pensive and anxious consumer," Chief Executive Noel Wallace said during a Friday call. "You see consumers destock their pantries and not necessarily buy that extra toothpaste tube or that extra body wash."

The maker of Ajax and Softsoap lowered its full-year guidance based on the estimated cost of tariffs, which it expects to be around $200 million for the year. It now projects earnings will increase in the low-single digits, compared with previous guidance in January of mid-single-digit growth.

Expected Major Events for Monday

02:00/SIN: 1Q Unemployment Rate

02:00/SIN: 1Q Employment

04:01/MAL: Mar PPI

08:00/TAI: Mar Business Indicators

08:30/HK: Mar External Merchandise Trade

08:59/SKA: Mar Department store sales

10:59/INA: 1Q Quarterly Investment Data - Foreign and Domestic Investment Realization Results

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.