Seaport Outlook Deteriorating for North America and EMEA, Fitch Says — Market Talk

1319 ET - Fitch Ratings says its sector outlooks for North America and EMEA seaports are "deteriorating" for 2026, with tariff pass-throughs and policy uncertainty weighing on cargo activity and complicating investment decisions. For North America, Fitch expects "nominal declines in 2026 volumes amid low GDP growth and an adverse tariff environment." In EMEA, Fitch sees modest or stagnant seaborne trade as higher tariffs take effect. The outlooks for APAC and Latin America seaports are neutral, Fitch adds, reflecting relatively resilient regional dynamics. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)

1243 ET - Bond markets are likely to be significantly less influenced by external factors next year, such as central bank decisions or tariff policy, M.M. Warburg & Co analysts say in a note. U.S. trade policy has lost much of its initial shock value through numerous renegotiations and transitional arrangements, the German private bank's analysts say. At the same time, the European Central Bank is benefiting from the fact that the inflation rate is now close to its 2% target. Warburg analysts expect consumer prices to stabilize at this level in 2026 as well. "Accordingly, we do not anticipate any further monetary policy stimulus in the euro area," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1225 ET - The U.S. labor market is gradually weakening, despite last week's unexpected drop in jobless claims, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa says. "The labor market feels mostly status quo," Rajappa says. In Thanksgiving week, claims fell to 191,000 from 218,000. AI-boosted automation offsets workforce reduction caused by Trump's immigration crackdown, she says. Rajappa expects the Fed to cut rates next week and take a pause as more reliable data trickles in before the January meeting and show "modestly higher inflation." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1140 ET - Gold prices regain ground in evening trade as traders await a key U.S. inflation report on Friday for more clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Futures in New York rise 0.4% to $4,248.60 a troy ounce. Investors almost unanimously expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting next week, leaving attention on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's signals for what is ahead. Meanwhile, the latest U.S. data showed newly filed unemployment claims last week dropped to the lowest level in three years, though Wednesday's ADP report showed private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, a further setback for the labor market. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1120 ET - U.S. Treasurys look expensive, making them less appealing, Insight Investment's April LaRusse says at the Edelman Smithfield Investor Summit. The government bonds have priced in anticipated interest-rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, LaRusse says. However, they risk falling "if there is any concern over U.S. inflation or concerns about a possible change in how the Fed behaves," she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1059 ET - Emerging-market bonds and currencies are likely to providehigher returns than their developed-market counterparts in 2026, HSBC Asset Management's Joe Little says at the Edelman Smithfield Investor Summit in London. Emerging-market currencies are being undervalued, he says. Many economies have improved their financial markets and have bigger ownership of local-currency bonds, making them attractive for investors, he says. "We see good opportunity for pickup in terms of returns [in emerging markets]," Little says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1031 ET - Economists at Zillow expect 2026 to bring steadier footing to the housing market as affordability improves and the ways Americans want to live continue to evolve. On the heels of a year of small wins for home buyers, buyers and sellers can expect a modest rise in home values, a few more sales and mortgage rates holding above 6%. Many apartment renters should look forward to some affordability relief, Zillow says, however, those in New York City should not. Zillow economists expect U.S. home values to grow 1.2% in 2026. Next year's forecast reflects expectations of gradually improving affordability and steady buyer demand. Mortgage costs should ease a bit in 2026, helping more buyers stay in the market and supporting modest price growth in many parts of the country. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1021 ET - Sterling's recovery after last week's U.K. budget might not last long given the prospect of further Bank of England interest-rate cuts, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. "Not only could the BOE be one of the last G-10 central banks to complete its easing cycle, but U.K. growth is slow and there is the potential for political disquiet," she says. She notes speculation that Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer are vulnerable to losing their jobs. Sterling's falls against the euro could be limited, however, given potential disappointment over Germany's structural reforms, she says. The euro falls to a five-week low of 0.8720 pounds, LSEG data show. Rabobank expects it to reach 0.89 in 6-12 months. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1018 ET - Markets are priced to perfection, leaving little room for dissapointment, HSBC Asset Management's Joe Little says at the Edelman Smithfield Investor Summit in London. Elevated pricing creates a risk of high volatility, he says. "Any sort of disappointing news or something a bit bigger can create these bouts of volatility." High-quality assets in the credit structure are more favorable, Little says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1015 ET - Sterling rises to a six-week high against the dollar and a five-week high versus the euro as markets unwind previous bets against the currency, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The market has closed a raft of short sterling positions taken ahead of last week's budget in case U.K. Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves caused turmoil in U.K. government bonds, she says. "She avoided this mostly by opting to hike taxes rather than ratchet bond supply significantly higher." The bond market welcomed increased fiscal headroom, she says. Sterling rises to $1.3374 and the euro falls to a low of 0.8720 pounds, LSEG data show. The ten-year U.K. government-bond yield falls 0.7 basis points to 4.429%, having earlier traded higher, according to Tradeweb. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1015 ET - Starter-home sales jumped 4.9% year over year in October, Redfin says, as buyers benefited from more choices and modest price growth. Mid-priced and high-priced home sales also rose from a year earlier, a notable change after a long stretch of year-over-year declines. Starter-home sales have been on an upward trend for more than a year, as buyers shift their focus to the most affordable homes available. Conditions for starter homes are improving, with more listings and steadier prices, but many buyers are only turning to this tier because they have been priced out of higher tiers. Mortgage rates staying below 6.5% over the past few months is also helping to fuel the uptick in sales across all tiers. The increase in starter-home sales is not causing prices to spike. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1011 ET - The dollar would likely rise only briefly if the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged next week, defying expectations for another rate cut, strategists at the Investment Institute by UniCredit say in a note. The Fed's December 10 decision remains a close call but the strategists expect the central bank will probably hold rates steady. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another rate cut wasn't a done deal and the recent government shutdown means a lack of official data. "A steady Fed outcome would surprise investors, but the support it might offer the dollar will probably remain short-lived." A possible dollar rebound also depends on the reaction of U.S. stocks and Treasurys, as well as Powell's remarks about future policy. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)