Saudi Aramco Loses Nearly $90 Billion in Value as Tariffs Rattle Middle East

By Bradley S. Klein

Handicaps in golf are the subject of public shame and personal aspiration. But they are also a crucial part of the game for many amateur players, an essential mechanism for allowing any two players of widely different skill levels to compete evenly against one another. In no other sport is the adjustment for inequity so central to everyday play.

So how exactly do handicaps work and where did they originate? How have they evolved over the years and how do you get one? And do golfers lie about them?

Here are some answers to help make sense of it all.

What exactly is a handicap?

A handicap might sound like a limitation but in golf it is a benefit accorded to the weaker player. Handicaps work by reducing high scores, allowing players of different skill levels to compete against each other. The relative stroke reduction applies whether on a hole-by-hole basis in "match" play or to overall 18-hole score in a "stroke" competition.

The resulting contest, then, becomes not about a golfer's total "gross" score but of the adjusted "net" score. Thus, a golfer with an 18 handicap shooting 90 achieves a net score of 72 and can defeat a golfer with a handicap of zero or better who shoots 73.

Where did handicaps start?

The first detailed written reference to golf handicaps comes by way of an Edinburgh medical student, Thomas Kincaid, in 1687 — some 200 years after golf was first documented along the coast of St. Andrews, Scotland. Kincaid's discussion of golf handicapping involved various ways that the different skill levels between players could be apportioned — whether in the form of strokes to be deducted on specific holes, or entire holes to be conceded at the outset so that weaker players were given a leg up at the start. At the time, the goal was to facilitate betting.

As private golfing societies developed through the British Isles in the 18(th) and 19(th) centuries, it was standard for the club captain or secretary to assign handicaps to resident players, whose histories of play and scoring would have been relatively well known. The problem came with the "portability" of handicaps from one course to another. With no two golf courses of the same degree of difficulty, a system of comparability had to be developed so that players from one course could compete with players from other courses.

How have handicaps evolved?

The need for handicaps to reflect both the average skill level of the player and the relative challenges of the courses over which they played helps explain the complexity of modern systems by which relative skill is calculated.

The first comprehensive system for such regionwide handicap indexing was developed by the Ladies Golf Union in Britain between 1893 and 1901. It has continued to evolve both overseas and in the U.S., most recently codified in 2024 with the World Handicap System that established a uniform standard.

This involves both a reporting system for player scores and a detailed evaluation system of golf courses in terms of degree of difficulty for elite players, known as rating, as well as a more nuanced analysis of how various factors like the placement and depth of hazards, the contour of greens, the proximity of irrecoverable water and out-of-bounds all have an impact on players of very diverse skills, known as slope. Suffice it to say that the course-assessment process is enough to require a trained team of specialists — a seeming army of math geeks, engineers, lawyers and pencil pushers.

In the resulting system, golfers carry an "index," derived from the eight best of the last 20 scores they have posted. That index is then adjusted up or down marginally each time they play, depending upon the slope and rating of the course. A 13-index playing an easy course with a low slope/rating might play that day to a course handicap of 11. If the course is hard, or the tees they play way back, that same golfer might play as a 15- or 16-handicap.

What is the average handicap?

According to data from the U.S. Golf Association, the average American male golfer carries a 14.2 index; the average female American golfer registers at 28.7. When players show up for a round, their index is adjusted to compensate for the slope and rating of the course they are playing. As such, a 14.2 would usually get 15-16 shots and 28.7 would get 30-31 shots. Roughly translated for a par 72 golf course, that means the average indexed male golfer struggles to break 90. The midrange woman golfer would only very rarely break 100.

With index calculated as the average of your best rounds, the likelihood of playing better than your adjusted handicap on any one round is actually about 1 in 5. And if you do play well enough to merit a momentary reduction in index, that only creates a new standard that is harder to reach the next time.

The USGA tells us that 3.4 million golfers carry an index, and the National Golf Foundation says there are about 26.6 million golfers. That means only 13% of golfers have volunteered to log in their rounds on a regular enough basis to qualify for an index. On average they post 23 rounds a year, which is well above the average for all golfers nationally.

As for the other 87% of golfers who don't register for an index — well, nobody knows how well (or poorly) they play since nobody is monitoring their scores.

Only 10.5% of the male golfers with indexes are at five or lower and thus shoot regularly in the 70s, according to the USGA.

How good are elite players like those on the PGA Tour? One index by statistician Lou Stagner of Decade Golf for the years 2016 to 2020 has Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka averaging +6.5 for those five years, with Tiger Woods at +6.3.

That's at least six to seven shots under par on a course of average difficulty. And yet the statistics rely only on scorecard listings of yardage, par, slope and rating from the back tees and don't fully account for how difficult PGA Tour courses are set up for tournament play — deepened rough, faster greens, marginal placement of hole locations on the periphery of greens to bring hazards more into play.

Do people cheat?

For most golfers, establishing an index and regularly maintaining that standard would seem like worthy goals. The trick is to post all of your scores and to do so honestly. There is a class of players, however, who post only their best scores, thus achieving what's known as a "vanity handicap" — not an accurate index but one designed to boost their self-esteem. Along the way, they won't get enough shots in competitions and almost always lose, but at least they can feel good about their listed index.

On the flip side are the golfers who post only their worst scores instead of their better ones, or who deliberately mess up a round at the end to get a worse score. They end up with unduly high indexes that then enable them to get an abundance of strokes in a handicap event and walk away frequently as winners.

When that happens, they get labeled as "sandbaggers" and become the object of scrutiny and scorn by fellow members — and perhaps even handicap adjustment by tournament officials. Or they can become subject to nasty disputes, some of which spill over into court cases.

When it comes to golf handicaps, there can be a lot of money riding on the extent to which the number matches a golfer's actual skill.

Bradley S. Klein is a writer in Bloomfield, Conn. He can be reached at reports@wsj.com.

By Jon Sindreu

If you've been investing your savings for the past 15 years, there is a situation you've hardly ever encountered: the U.S. dollar getting structurally weaker. Given the fallout from President Trump's "Liberation Day," you may need to get used to it.

Wall Street was caught off guard when the greenback dropped against major currencies following this past week's tariff news. Markets feared that protectionism could put an end to the U.S.'s economic dominance since the global financial crisis.

International money managers, who had massively biased their holdings toward U.S. assets, are feeling the urge to find another source of high returns. American investors, long comfortable ignoring foreign stocks, may no longer have that luxury.

"We are working on the assumption that in the next five years the dollar is going to lose another 10% to 15%," said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Switzerland's Pictet Asset Management.

To be sure, asset managers in many cases are making short-term, defensive moves to protect against a potential recession. It also follows a trend of money leaving the "Magnificent Seven" stocks specifically — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla — for reasons not fully related to Trump.

These companies drove much of the exceptional returns of the past decade and a half, but their collective price/earnings ratio hit a staggering 46 times last December. At such a lofty level, it doesn't take much for a fall to ensue.

Even excluding the Magnificent Seven, though, Americans who bought the rest of the S&P 500 15 years ago earned a total return of around 380%. Europeans who did the same, unhedged, earned about 490% — thanks to the dollar's more than 20% gain against the euro, according to FactSet.

The reverse also holds: Eurozone equities returned about 220% in euros, but only 150% in dollars. Japanese equities tell a similar story — the Nikkei 225 gained 300% in yen, but just 160% in dollars. No wonder Americans haven't rushed to add these stocks to their 401(k)s.

What is striking is that a stronger dollar should, mechanically, hurt U.S. stocks — by reducing the dollar value of overseas earnings — and help foreign ones. Historically, it has been better to buy the S&P 500 when the dollar was weakening. Over the past five years, that held true: Fed rate hikes strengthened the dollar while hurting equities.

But in the seven years before Covid-19, the dollar and U.S. equities moved in sync. That was the heyday of the "American exceptionalism trade, " when U.S. assets outperformed across the board — not just in tech. This included currency-sensitive sectors like industrials.

Two forces helped drive this. One was the fracking boom, which made the U.S. largely energy self-sufficient, cutting corporate costs and turning the dollar into a kind of "petrocurrency." Investors learned in 2014 the counterintuitive lesson that the U.S. economy may actually suffer when crude prices nosedive, and benefit when they rise.

Indeed, the other factor was that U.S. consumer spending was unrelenting, even at times when gas-pump prices increased. For years, it has been powered by government deficit spending, a tech sector exporting services globally at scale, and the wealth effects from a booming stock market.

Most of that now risks being turned upside down, exposing investors to the prospect of falling equities alongside a weakening currency.

Trump has pledged to plug the budget deficit, which could arguably weaken the dollar. Meanwhile, he has launched a tariff war that has tanked the equity market, triggered retaliation from China and may provoke European blowback against U.S. tech giants.

The new regime could echo the early 2000s, when investors turned against both tech and U.S. stocks in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. At the time, the dollar also had a positive correlation with equities, as capital flowed into the so-called Brics — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

In a report to clients Friday, Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments noted that international equities have historically picked up the slack when the S&P 500 lagged behind. In such cases, the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indexes beat the benchmark U.S. index by an annualized average of 2.0 percentage points and 12.1 percentage points, respectively.

A weaker dollar itself helps support the financial resilience of developing nations. Meanwhile, the European Union has rekindled investor hopes that it can close the growth gap with the U.S. through fiscal stimulus, industrial policy and energy independence.

At the same time, this is nothing like the 2000s. The rest of the world is far more exposed to trade than the U.S.'s relatively closed economy, and will have to grapple with China rerouting a huge glut of cheap goods there.

Another option for investors, then, is to remain in U.S. equities and hedge the currency risk — but that is expensive — or to broaden exposure to discounted "value" stocks and try to identify potential long-term winners.

An economy reshaped by Trump would imply more investment and less consumption. Since the only profitable way to onshore production — whether a Nike shoe or a General Motors SUV — is to use machines instead of labor, capital-goods manufacturers may eventually benefit. But they are also among the hardest hit by today's indiscriminate disruption to global supply chains.

Given the complete lack of clarity, the only solution for those who still need the long-term upside of stocks may be to do all of it at the same time. Right now, diversification isn't just a strategy, it is a lifeline.

Write to Jon Sindreu at jon.sindreu@wsj.com

By Jacob Sonenshine

Stocks have taken a beating — but this week may provide a more definitive direction for the coming months.

All three major U.S. indexes were deeply in the red for a second consecutive day Friday. The S&P 500 is down 17% from the record close it notched in late February, and marked its worst week since March 2020.

Stocks are sliding after President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs plan this week, as investors remain uncertain about how much the global economy will suffer.

On Wednesday, Trump announced 10% tariffs on all goods imported to the U.S., additional ones for goods from certain countries, and 34% higher tariffs on goods from China, all of which go into effect this month.

The implications: the cost of over $3 trillion worth of global goods will skyrocket, according to Office of the United States Trade Representative. Consumers will likely pull back on spending, which is forcing the stock market to reduce its expectation for sales and earnings.

Compounding the economic concern, China retaliated Friday morning by implementing 34% tariffs on U.S. goods. China imported $140 billion of goods from the U.S. in 2024 — and U.S. companies that sell to China will likely see a hit to demand in 2025.

The market won't fully understand the damage to companies' profits until investors can examine economic data and quarterly earning reports over the coming quarters. That is why the market won't stage any kind of meaningful recovery in the next few weeks unless a few saving graces emerge.

Negotiations between the U.S. and its major trading partners, China, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, could provide a significant boost. Trump has yet to give a strong signal that he'll roll back tariffs, but he told reporters Friday that he'd be open to negotiation, depending on the degree to which trading partners offer favorable terms to the U.S. on any of the issues the president is concerned about.

Softening needs to happen quickly for the market to bounce. Various U.S. economic data points have shown that businesses have lost confidence, indicating they're likely to curb their investments and hiring, which could spark a negative economic cycle, paving the way for a recession.

"If we see countries come to the negotiating table in the near-term and tariff rates are reduced, that would likely help alleviate some of the pressure on confidence channels," wrote Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist in a Thursday note. "If high tariff rates stay in place, negotiations are drawn out over a multi-month period and additional measures are taken, the risk of a recession/our bear case is likely to rise."

The March consumer price index reading, which is slated to be released Thursday, could also shape things. Economists tracked by FactSet expect the latest reading to show a 2.6% year over year gain, which would be lower than February's 2.8% increase. "Front-loading of purchases and pre-emptive price increases in anticipation of higher tariffs appear to have pushed up core goods prices," wrote economists at Nomura in a Friday note.

A high March reading could make the Federal Reserve's job difficult. The central bank wants to cut interest rates if the economy heads south, but justifying rate cuts is more difficult when inflation is high. Hot inflation data could delay the market's expectations of when rate cuts will happen.

Ultimately, less hiring and consumer spending could also show up in economic data in the coming weeks and months and act as a counteracting force on inflation, eventually pushing it down toward the Fed's 2% goal. At that point, the Fed may cut rates to stabilize the economy. While the March jobs reported looked strong on Friday, and showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected, April may be a different story.

Fed members will also speak next week and shed light on how the central bank is approaching inflation and the economy. The speakers that matter the most are Fed chair Jerome Powell and Fed governors Michael Barr and Christopher Waller, since they will speak one day after the CPI reading is released.

For stocks, "upside would likely have to come from either a more dovish Fed than expected or near-term progress on tariff negotiations that clearly offers a path for lower tariff rates," Wilson writes.

Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Considering the current chart structure, weak momentum, and cautious global sentiment, it seems the bears are likely to retain control in the coming sessions, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, unless a strong positive trigger emerges, a decisive bullish comeback appears unlikely in the near term.

However, he is bullish on Marico and InterGlobe Aviation for next week. "Both stocks are trading above all short and long term moving averages. "These averages in case of Marico are on a rising trajectory, which is a bullish sign, while momentum-based indicators suggest strong bullish momentum in IndiGo," said the Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities.

Have you adjusted your overall trading strategy after Nifty lost 1,000 points from its recent swing high? What will be your strategy for the upcoming week?

Global markets were rattled this week (ended April 4) as a wave of risk-off sentiment swept across equities, triggered by the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on the US trade partners. The escalating trade tensions have reignited fears of a slowdown in global economic activity. As Wall Street tumbled and Asian indices followed suit, the ripple effect reached Indian shores, with the Nifty reacting sharply to the global sell-off. But beneath the headline noise, what are the charts really telling us?

Recently, the benchmark index Nifty has failed to sustain above its prior swing high and thereafter started witnessing gradual selling pressure. From the recent high of 23,870, the index has tumbled by over 1,000 points in just 8 trading sessions. Along with this fall, the index has slipped below its short and long term moving averages, which is a sign of weakening momentum. Adding to the bearish sentiment, the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) is trading below its 9-day average, and the fast stochastic has slipped below the slow stochastic line.

Together, these signals point to a clear loss of bullish strength and suggest that bearish momentum is currently in play. Sector-wise, the broader market is also under pressure. Barring a few pockets like private banks, select financial services, and FMCG, most sectoral indices are trending lower. In light of this, a cautious approach is advisable over the next few sessions.

Talking about crucial levels, the zone of 22,400-22,350 will act as immediate support for the index. If the index slips below the 22,350 level, then we may witness a further correction upto the 21,900 level in the short term, while, on the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 23,100-23,120 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.

Do you think the bulls can make a comeback and support the market, or will the bears continue to maintain tight control over the market in the coming week?

Considering the current chart structure, weak momentum, and cautious global sentiment, it seems the bears are likely to retain control in the coming sessions. While minor pullbacks may occur, the inability to sustain above key levels indicates continued pressure. Unless a strong positive trigger emerges, a decisive bullish comeback appears unlikely in the near term.

Will Bank Nifty be able to surpass the March swing high and easily reclaim the 53,000 level in the current series?

Bank Nifty has been consistently outperforming the frontline indices over the past few trading sessions. While the Nifty has declined over 2.50 percent this week, Bank Nifty has remained relatively resilient, shedding just 0.12 percent. Notably, the ratio chart of Bank Nifty versus Nifty has hit a 67-week high, signaling continued outperformance.

The banking index is also holding firm above its short and long-term moving averages, with the daily RSI comfortably placed in bullish territory. This overall chart structure suggests that bullish momentum remains intact for Bank Nifty. Talking about crucial levels, the zone of 52,000-52,100 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index, while, on the downside, the zone of 50,800-50,700 will act as a crucial support for the index. If the index slips below the 50,700 level, then we may witness a correction upto the 50,000 level.

What are your top two picks for the upcoming week?

Marico

The stock has been strongly outperforming the frontline indices since the last couple of trading sessions. Despite the sharp sell-off in frontline indices, the stock has continued its northward journey along with relatively higher volume. Also, it is trading above its short and long term moving averages. These averages are on a rising trajectory, which is a bullish sign. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 680-670 level with a stop-loss of Rs 650 level. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 730 in the short term.

InterGlobe Aviation

Since the last couple of trading sessions, IndiGo has been trading in sideways range, and it has formed a Bullish Flag like continuation pattern on a daily scale. As the stock is trading at an all-time high level, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators suggest strong bullish momentum in the stock. Most noteworthy, the daily RSI is in a super bullish zone as per RSI range shift rules. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 5,100-5,050 levels with a stop-loss of Rs 4,870 level. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 5,430 in the short term.

Do you expect the rally to sustain in Angel One and Power Grid?

At this point, it seems unlikely that the rally in Angel One and Power Grid will sustain in the immediate term. Both stocks have shown strong upward momentum recently, but Friday’s session witnessed noticeable profit booking. The current chart structure suggests that they may enter a consolidation phase over the next few trading sessions. Additionally, the daily RSI for both stocks has given a bearish crossover, pointing to a loss of momentum and indicating limited upside in the short term.Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

By Caitlin McCabe

How often do we see selloffs like this? Hardly ever.

President Trump's tariff blitz sent the S&P 500 careening 10.5% lower over Thursday and Friday. Only three other times since World War II has the index or its precursor suffered a two-day drawdown of 10% or more, Deutsche Bank strategists led by Parag Thatte said in a note.

Those selloffs came in: March 2020, during the Covid-19 panic; November 2008, during the global financial crisis; and October 1987, with the Black Monday crash.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

By Joseph Adinolfi

Major equity indexes are already approaching 'washed-out territory.' Investors with a long-term investing horizon should consider buying shares of quality companies.

The stock market is tumbling. Wall Street is rife with talk of a possible recession. Even the chairman of the Federal Reserve can't say for sure what's coming down the pike.

High levels of uncertainty can make buying stocks, or holding them, unappealing for many investors. But those willing to stomach the short-term fluctuations could ultimately be rewarded with higher returns in the future.

And while few investing professionals are willing to call a bottom just yet, some markets professionals are seeing signs that a buying opportunity for stocks might be approaching.

"Finding a bottom is an art, not a science," said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, during an interview Friday with MarketWatch.

"And while this might not be the bottom, we're likely getting close."

'Capitulation'

President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariff announcement set in motion one of the most punishing stock-market selloffs since March 2020, when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global economy.

And China's decision to retaliate with a 34% tariff on U.S. imports caused the stock-market rout to deepen on Friday.

By the time the closing bell rang, the market appeared to be entering what Turnquist described as "washed-out territory."

A few indicators pointed to this. The Cboe Volatility Index VIX, better known as Wall Street's "fear gauge" or the VIX, finished north of 40 on Friday. That was its highest end-of-day level since April 2020, FactSet data showed.

An elevated VIX has typically presaged strong gains for stocks over the next year, Turnquist said. Others pointed to the VIX as one sign that the selling might be getting overdone now.

"We are clearly into the capitulatory part of the move," said Jonathan Krinsky, technical strategist at BTIG, in commentary shared with MarketWatch via email.

"The issue is once you get into this phase, it can go further than you expect," he added.

A popular sentiment survey released earlier this week by the American Association of Individual Investors showed respondents haven't been this downbeat on stocks since March 2009. In the past, signs of extreme bearish sentiment have also been reliable signals to buy.

Meanwhile, the share of S&P 500 SPX companies trading below their 200-day moving average stood around 75% on Friday, nearing levels last seen at the S&P 500's bear-market bottom in October 2022. Back then, roughly 83% of stocks in the index traded below their long-term average before the latest bull market began.

Headline risk

To be sure, while certain indicators can be helpful, there are other factors that investors should consider when weighing whether to buy here or not, said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide Investment Management Group.

"My general feeling is: This is a buying opportunity if you're thinking six to 12 months out. But if you're thinking six to 12 days out, maybe not," Hackett said.

"Technicals are incredibly supportive for this being a buying opportunity a little further out," he added. "But the binary nature of the headlines right now makes it incredibly difficult."

Right now, the market is at the mercy of the headlines. A single press release, or Truth Social post, could send stocks ripping higher, or spiraling lower, Hackett said.

Investors got a taste of this on Friday when President Trump touted the possibility of a trade deal with Vietnam. A post on Trump's social-media platform sparked a rally in shares of Nike Inc. (NKE), RH (RH) and Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

Another post touting progress toward a deal with China or Europe over the weekend could cause the market to rebound come Monday, Hackett said.

At the same time, a press release from the European Union laying out plans to retaliate against the White House's tariffs could cause the selloff to deepen.

Some investors have been unwilling to wait. The retail crowd has been aggressively buying in recent days. But at the same time, institutional funds have continued to bail out of stocks, Hackett noted. Signs that they are once again warming to the market could be a tell that the worst of the pain has passed.

See: Individual investors net bought a record $4.7 billion worth of stocks on Thursday as new tariffs pummeled markets

For now, Hackett said he would rather err on the side of caution - especially considering that big corporations will be largely restricted from buying back their own shares during the coming weeks as they prepare to report their quarterly results.

There's also the matter of economic data. Friday's jobs numbers for March held up surprisingly well. But investors will be keeping a close eye on future reports for any sign that Trump's agenda has started to have an adverse effect on growth.

Focus on quality companies

Anybody looking to buy during this selloff should probably focus on shares of quality companies with reliable track records, said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management.

"Generally speaking, the best long-term investments are the highest-quality businesses - the businesses that have durable competitive advantages over their peers," Ellerbroek told MarketWatch.

"In times like this, when the market is focused on risk and fearful, you see big drawdowns in shares of high-quality businesses, and you get a chance to buy them at valuations that are really attractive and rare," Ellerbroek said.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) are two such examples, he added.

Between Thursday and Friday, roughly $6.6 trillion in shareholder value was wiped away from the U.S. stock market, the biggest two-day drop on record, Dow Jones Market Data showed.

U.S. stocks capped off their worst week since March 2020 on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite COMP falling into bear-market territory. The S&P 500 finished the day down 17.5% from its record high reached in February, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA has fallen by 15% from its record high reached in late November, FactSet data showed.

-Joseph Adinolfi

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.