Rubber Futures Plunge to 8-Month Lows

Palm Oil decreased to a 10-week low of 4165.00 MYR/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Palm Oil lost 7.17%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 4.63%.

By Giulia Petroni

Goldman Sachs revised its oil price estimates downward for the second time this month, citing growing recession risks and higher-than-expected output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Brent crude is now projected at an average of $66 a barrel in 2025 from $69 a previously, while West Texas Intermediate is forecast at $63 a barrel from $65 previously. In 2026, the benchmarks are seen at $58 and $55 a barrel.

"We reduce our oil price forecast further as we incorporate our economists' GDP downgrades from the last few days, including the forecast of a stagnating U.S. economy," analysts at the U.S. bank said. "They have also raised the 12-month U.S. recession probability from 35% to 45%."

Weaker economic growth is expected to hit demand, outweighing support from a softer U.S. dollar and lower oil prices, Goldman said. Global oil demand growth is now seen at 300,000 barrels a day in 2025 and 400,000 barrels a day in 2026, from previous projections of 600,000 and 700,000 barrels a day, respectively.

"Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the [U.S.] administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses," the analysts said. "We're particularly focused on whether the country-specific reciprocal tariffs will go fully into effect on April 9."

In early European trade, Brent crude fell 3.4% to $63.34 a barrel, while WTI was down 3.6% at $59.77 a barrel. Both contracts have lost more than 15% this year so far, with recent losses sparked by U.S. President Trump's tariff blitz and OPEC+'s plans for a larger-than-expected output raise in May.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

Even before the start of escalating trade tensions, German industrial production data for February showed a sector struggling to gain momentum, ING's Carsten Brzeski says in a note. The 1.3% on month decline in output in February means positive momentum seen since the start of the year halted, with production still about 10% below its prepandemic levels, he says. All this means that after the optimism stemming from Germany's U-turn on its fiscal borrowing rules, the nearer-term outlook for the German economy has worsened once again. The direct impact from U.S. tariffs on trade, the indirect impact on confidence, but also dry weather that is halting some river freight traffic will weigh not only on industrial but broader economic activity, Brzeski says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

UK natural gas futures fell below 85 pence per therm, the lowest in over six months, tracking a broader market decline amid escalating trade tensions and its negative impact of industry and energy demand.

Tensions escalated as China announced it would impose a 34% tariff on all US imports, mirroring US tariffs, sparking concerns about inflation and slower economic growth.

However, Trump dismissed recession concerns, insisting a market boom is imminent.

Additionally, warmer weather has reduced gas demand, adding further pressure to prices.

European natural-gas prices plunge in early trade, mirroring a broader selloff in commodity markets sparked by fears that U.S. tariffs will hurt energy demand. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract drops 4.8% to 34.64 euros a megawatt hour and is down 15% on the week. The summer price premium that has worried traders in recent months has now largely disappeared, providing greater incentive to store gas ahead of the winter season. Meanwhile, escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China raise expectations that more LNG shipments will be diverted to Europe, helping the region replenish its depleted stockpiles, according to market watchers. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

The Norwegian krone falls to an eight-month low against the euro as oil prices slump on concerns that President Trump's tariffs could lead to a global recession. The krone is the worst performing G-10 currency over the past week, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The currency has taken a big hit from lower oil prices, he says. It's also weighed down by the fact that Norwegian interest rates have the some of the furthest to fall given the Norges Bank is yet to start cutting rates. Falling liquidity is another factor. "The krone traditionally performs very poorly in illiquid environments, which could be the story this week." The euro rises 1.3% to a high of 12.0418 krone, according to FactSet. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)