Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs downgraded Mattel Inc (NASDAQ:MAT) to Neutral from Buy, citing the stock’s recent outperformance and growing caution around the consumer and macro backdrop for toys in 2026.
Stock has gained roughly 9% vs a 2% rise in S&P500.
At roughly 12 times expected 2026 earnings, Goldman said the stock has moved back toward the middle of its recent trading range, leaving less scope for further multiple expansion.
Goldman kept its $21 price target and raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS estimates modestly, driven by a slightly improved outlook for Hot Wheels and third-party intellectual property.
The bank said tariff-related price increases remain an overhang on demand, with the risk that higher prices are increasingly borne by consumers as promotions fade.
Goldman also flagged pressure on lower-income shoppers, which it expects to weigh disproportionately on toy demand next year. It said sales trends in the first half of 2026 will be key to gauging how much pricing elasticity is starting to bite.
Goldman is also more cautious on the contribution from Mattel’s newer growth initiatives. It said recent film releases tied to Mattel’s intellectual property have not yet delivered a material lift to revenue, leading the bank to temper expectations for a stronger film slate in 2026 without clearer data points from the company.
Mattel’s self-published video game strategy remains relatively small in the context of group financials, limiting near-term upside, while the benefits from product innovation across core brands such as Barbie and Fisher-Price are still unproven.























