Prediction markets bet Bitcoin won’t reach $100K before year’s end

Binance has quietly moved a step closer toward offering stock-linked perpetual futures, according to a Dec. 11 update to the exchange’s derivatives API documentation.

The change log for USDⓈ-M futures added a new REST endpoint — POST /fapi/v1/stock/contract — designed for users to sign a "TradFi-Perps agreement contract," typically required before trading traditional finance-linked perpetuals.

Binance has not formally announced the rollout of stock perpetual contracts, and it remains unclear when, or even if, the instrument will launch. Still, the inclusion of a dedicated stock-perps contract endpoint suggests infrastructure is being prepared behind the scenes.

The Block reached out to Binance for comment.

Why stock perpetuals matter

Stock perpetual contracts extend the crypto-native perp model — derivatives with no expiration dates and funding-rate mechanisms — into traditional equity markets. Instead of waiting for regulated stock markets to open, traders can take leveraged long or short positions on equities 24/7, with settlement typically in stablecoins like USDT.

For offshore crypto venues, the appeal appears obvious: equities represent a multi-trillion-dollar asset class, and offering round-the-clock access creates a product unavailable in traditional brokerage channels.

As for crypto traders, these contracts provide a frictionless way to express macro views, hedge portfolios, or speculate on single-stock names without interacting with traditional brokers.

The model remains niche, and regulatory uncertainty limits adoption, but exchanges have begun building the plumbing as tokenized stock exposure accelerates.

Industry momentum

Binance’s quiet API move lands amid a broader shift toward real-world-asset derivatives across both centralized and decentralized platforms.

Crypto exchanges like Bybit and Kraken have rolled out tokenized stock products, tapping providers like Backed Finance to offer onchain exposure to these traditional financial instruments.

In July, Coinbase also expanded its U.S. derivatives offering through CFTC-regulated nano futures for bitcoin and ether. While not yet tied to equities, Coinbase executives argued that the launch could lay the groundwork for a more complete derivatives suite — including markets that more closely mirror traditional finance.

On the decentralized side, Ostium, a protocol backed by General Catalyst and Jump Crypto, has emerged as an RWA-perp specialist. The platform offers 24/7 perpetuals linked to equities, metals, and energy markets. Since 2023, the platform founded by Harvard alumni has raised about $27.8 million from investors.

Tokenized stock access has also gained traction across offshore exchanges this year, with DeFi platforms such as Hyperliquid, Lighter, and smaller derivatives venues rolling out equity-themed or synthetic stock markets. Growing demand has also attracted venture capitalist allocations to decentralized venues, as trading activity surged in 2025, topping $1 trillion in October and November, according to The Block's data.

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© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

A recent post by crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards on X suggests that the current Bitcoin structure is giving bears “the perfect opportunity” to short the market down to $40,000. His message was paired with a chart showing Bitcoin falling below an important resistance ever since it broke below $100,000, creating what appears to be a clean continuation setup for traders expecting deeper losses. 

However, although the chart highlights a similar bearish structure in 2022, the analysis behind his post points to a more layered interpretation of what may come next for Bitcoin.

The Setup Bears Believe Is Finally Here

In the chart he shared, Stockmoney Lizards showed how Bitcoin’s latest breakdown resembles the 2022 pattern, when the price action rejected a major resistance level and fell sharply into what later became a large accumulation zone. The current structure shows a similar rejection just above the $100,000 zone, followed by a drop below the weekly EMA50. This move has brought Bitcoin into a region that is similar to the range where accumulation formed in the earlier cycle. 

An overlay of the new price action on top of the previous one shows the path downward seems almost predetermined, creating the impression that the Bitcoin price is setting up a natural decline to as low as $40,000 in the coming weeks and months. Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,240. A crash to $40,000 would mean wiping out roughly 55% of its value from here, effectively erasing the entire progress it has built over the past two years.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X

Why The Perfect Short Is Not The Analyst’s Real Message

After the post gained traction, Stockmoney Lizards stepped in to clarify that his message had been taken too literally. His invitation for traders to short down to $40,000 was intentionally exaggerated, and the market does not behave this way. 

He clarified that he does not foresee a collapse into a deep bear market. Instead, he believes Bitcoin may consolidate, possibly sweep local lows, but not have a prolonged breakdown. Furthermore, he noted that the worst-case scenario would be a touch of the weekly EMA200, and this is not a place where bull markets end. The real midterm prediction is a higher move for the Bitcoin price.

Before posting the supposedly bearish prediction, Stockmoney Lizards had shared another analysis describing Bitcoin as being close to the endboss at the weekly EMA50 indicator. 

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X

That earlier chart offered a clearer view of his actual stance. In it, he predicted that Bitcoin was approaching a major technical pivot and that he expected upward movement into the end of December and Q1 2025. Therefore, the weekly EMA50 is the barrier that Bitcoin needs to reclaim in order to launch its next phase of bullish momentum.

During his speech at Solana Breakpoint 2025, Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge Capital predicted that 2026 is going to be a breakthrough year for the most prominent "Ethereum killer." 

According to the American financier, a slew of large-scale companies of the likes of BlackRock, Blackstone, and JPMorgan could start using the network for transactions. 

Earlier this month, Scaramucci predicted that Solana would be among the "big winners" when it comes to tokenization. 

SkyBridge Capital holds significant amounts of SOL on its balance sheet alongside Bitcoin.

Scaramucci has publicly predicted that Solana could surpass Ethereum in market cap.

Capital participated as an investor alongside other major backers (like Jump Crypto, Multicoin Capital, and Galaxy) in deals tied to Solana ecosystem projects.

He has even penned his own book about the blockchain called "Solana Rising," which became available for pre-order in late November. 

Hence, Scaramucci's bullishness is not particularly surprising. 

Regulatory breakthrough

Scaramucci claims that the CLARITY Act, a major framework for non-stablecoin digital assets, is going to pass despite some opposition from the Democrats. "I think it's very likely that it's going to be passed next year," he said. 

The likely passage of the bill will create a pathway for the tokenization of real-world assets, Scaramucci predicts. 

Bitcoin’s latest move has traders debating whether they’re watching normal volatility or something far more coordinated.

And the data behind Wednesday’s price action gave analysts plenty to talk about.

Binance Buys, Coinbase Dumps?

According to market commentator @NoLimit, Bitcoin’s CVD readings showed a rare split between two of the biggest exchanges. Binance’s CVD spiked sharply upward, while Coinbase’s dropped hard at the same time.

“That massive spike… didn’t come from retail suddenly deciding to buy millions of dollars in BTC,” he said. Meanwhile, Coinbase’s CVD “went straight down.”

He argues that this isn’t typical spot flow. Instead, he calls it “coordinated positioning, hedging, arbitrage… or someone trying to move price on purpose.” Bitcoin reacted in real time with a quick dump, and is now trading at $89,787.

A Pattern Around the U.S. Market Open

This isn’t the first odd behavior he’s highlighted. For weeks, Bitcoin has been selling off almost immediately when U.S. markets open. Gains built overnight often vanish within minutes. “Sixteen hours of slow, steady gains disappeared in about 20 minutes,” he said, noting the repeated 10 a.m. EST drops.

He points to high-frequency trading giant Jane Street, saying the timing lines up with their style – fast hits into liquidity, quick exits, and repeated cycles. He also notes Jane Street’s large position in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

The $94K Spike That Didn’t Look Organic

He also called the recent burst to $94K “pure manipulation,” pointing to thin order books, clustered large buys, and no follow-through. Funding rates and open interest rose at the same time – another sign, he says, that the move was engineered to create FOMO before selling into strength.

“Pay Attention”

His warning is that when major exchanges show opposite flows, “the next big move is being set up before the public catches on.” Whether that move breaks higher or lower, traders are watching the order books closely.

Real Vision Co-Founder & CEO Raoul Pal says he invests in very few altcoins, even though he has built an entire asset-management business inside the crypto ecosystem. Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week 2025, Pal explained that picking altcoins is harder than most retail traders think, which is why he keeps his choices limited and highly selective.

Pal’s Core Rule: Stick to Majors First

Pal said he places most of his personal crypto portfolio in major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. These networks already have deep liquidity, strong adoption, and long-term staying power.

He believes retail traders often “destroy capital” by chasing weaker altcoins that fail to outperform the big three. Any token that cannot beat BTC, ETH, or SOL on a weekly or monthly chart, he said, is not worth holding.

Why He Added Sui to His Altcoin List

Despite his conservative approach, Pal confirmed he has taken a big position in Sui, calling it one of the strongest new layer-1 networks of the cycle.

He said two factors pushed him into Sui:

• Network growth — Sui is among the fastest-growing blockchains based on active users and on-chain activity.
• Chart structure — Sui’s long-term chart started “basing” and showing early signs of trend reversal against Solana.

Other Networks That Caught His Attention

Pal named only two other chains showing growth metrics strong enough to catch his eye:

NEAR Protocol and Avalanche.

He said these networks currently rank among the fastest-expanding ecosystems based on user activity and value transferred. However, he did not confirm whether he has invested in them personally.

Why He Avoids Most Other Altcoins

Pal said recent market rotations show the danger of chasing narratives. With little new capital entering crypto, traders often jump between themes like memecoins, DeFi, and privacy tokens. They pump briefly, then collapse as attention moves on.

Because of this cycle, he keeps his altcoin picks limited to a few networks that show real adoption, clear metrics, and multi-year potential.

Bitcoin (BTC) sits in what can be described as a fragile range, experiencing pressure from high unrealized losses and realized loss realization, as well as heavy profit-taking by long-term holders. “The market is holding steady for now, but conviction remains absent,” to the latest report by the blockchain data provider Glassnode.

The analysts found that the world’s number one coin trades within “a structurally fragile” zone. The three factors noted above are collectively anchoring price action at the moment.

It is noteworthy, however, that demand remains resilient enough to keep price above the True Market Mean (the cost basis of all non-dormant coins), despite this persistent sell pressure. This suggests that buyers are still absorbing distribution.

Overall, the market structure “suggests a weak but stable range, held up by patient demand yet constrained by persistent sell pressure,” the analysts say.

Moreover, the short-term trajectory depends on whether liquidity improves and sellers relent. Long term, the market depends on its ability to reclaim key cost-basis thresholds and exit “this time-driven, psychologically taxing phase.”

Anchored, But Under Strain is stuck in a fragile range as losses climb, LTH selling grows, and demand stays weak. ETFs, liquidity, and futures remain muted while options price short-term volatility ahead of FOMC. Read the full Week On-Chain👇 — glassnode (@glassnode)

Moreover, looking at the onchain indicators, the analysts found that, as the market sits in this weak but bounded range, “time becomes a negative force.” They explain that investors find it more difficult to endure unrealized losses. Simultaneously, the possibility of loss realization increases.

Subsequently, as realized losses rise, recovery anchors further. A surge in realized profit from veteran investors boost this effect.

That said, the price did slightly recover above the True Market Mean. In the short term, if seller exhaustion arises, this underlying buy pressure could result in a retest of the $95,000 level and potentially the STH-Cost Basis at $102,700.

“Until then, the True Market Mean remains the most probable bottom-formation zone, barring a new macro shock,” the analysts write.You may also like:Bitcoin is ‘Stuck in Consolidation Limbo’, Not Ready For a Bullish Reversal, Says GlassnodeBitcoin (BTC) is consolidating within a mild bearish phase, trading between $97,000 and $111,900. The resistance stands near $116,000 “marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster,” according to the latest report by the blockchain data provider Glassnode.Notably, significant factors like ETF outflows, low leverage, and persistent put demand portray a highly cautious market that’s currently waiting for “renewed conviction.”Market in a State of ConsolidationBitcoin has dipped below $100,000...Transition Into Low-Liquidity, Mean-Reverting Environment

Onchain factors show a cautious tone, and off-chain conditions echo it, Glassnode says.

In short, exchange-traded funds (ETF) flows are negative, spot liquidity is subdued, and futures markets lack speculative engagement.

The spot market is seeing a thinner demand buffer. This lowers immediate buy-side support, with the price standing in a place “more vulnerable to macro catalysts and volatility shocks.”

Moreover, Bitcoin’s spot relative volume sits near the lower bound of its 30-day range. It suggests “a more defensive positioning across the board.” Fewer liquidity-driven flows are available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves.

Additionally, “across perpetual markets, funding hovered around zero to slightly negative during the week, underscoring the continued retreat in speculative long positioning,” the report says.Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, the options market recorded “muted” action, in contrast with a jump in short-dated implied volatility. This comes as traders position for a larger move.

“Options markets reinforce a defensive posture, with traders accumulating volatility, bidding short-dated downside protection, and positioning for a near-term volatility event,” the analysts says.

Additionally, they found that traders are buying and not selling volatility. Also, traders buying both wings suggest hedging and convexity-seeking behaviour instead sentiment-driven speculation.

“Combined with rising implied volatility and a downside-leaning skew, the flow profile suggests that market participants are preparing for a volatility event with a bias toward the downside,” Glassnode says.

Notably, the US Federal Reserve meeting on 10 December was the last meaningful catalyst, so the market is preparing for a transition into a low-liquidity, mean-reverting environment.

After the rate cut announcement, gamma sellers typically re-enter, accelerating IV decay into year-end. “Absent a hawkish surprise or a notable shift in guidance, the path of least resistance points toward lower implied volatility and a flatter surface through late December,” the report concludes.You may also like:Why Is Crypto Down Today? – December 11, 2025The crypto market is down today, with the cryptocurrency market capitalisation decreasing by 2.8% and pulling back to $3.16 trillion. 97 of the top 100 coins have gone down over the past 24 hours. At the same time, the total crypto trading volume is at $154 billion.Crypto Winners & LosersAt the time of writing, all top 10 coins per market capitalization have seen their prices decrease over the past 24 hours.Bitcoin (BTC) is down by 2.8% since this time yesterday, currently...