Portillo's Launches Season Of Surprises Holiday Promotion Throughout December

What Happened?

Shares of casual restaurant chain Portillo’s fell in the morning session as market sentiment weakened despite a "Buy" consensus rating for the stock. According to a summary of nine analysts, the company held a positive consensus view. This sentiment was supported by a general upward trend in the market as investors looked forward to the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This report is a key inflation measure watched by the Federal Reserve. Traders were anticipating that a softer inflation reading could support the case for more favorable interest-rate policy, which tends to benefit growth-oriented stocks by lowering borrowing costs.

The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Is now the time to buy Portillo's? Access our full analysis report here.

What Is The Market Telling Us

Portillo’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 30 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 29 days ago when the stock dropped 4.4% on the news that the company reported weak third-quarter 2025 financial results that missed analyst expectations. Total revenue grew just 1.8% year-over-year to $181.4 million, falling short of Wall Street's estimates. Earnings per share of $0.02 also missed projections and represented a sharp decline from the $0.11 reported in the same quarter last year. While same-store sales were flat, profitability took a significant hit. The company's operating margin fell to 3% from 9% a year ago, as rising costs outpaced sales growth. Gross margin also compressed, declining 3.3 percentage points year-over-year, suggesting pressure from input costs. Overall, the results pointed to clear challenges for the company's profitability and operational performance.

Portillo's is down 47% since the beginning of the year, and at $4.92 per share, it is trading 68.1% below its 52-week high of $15.39 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Portillo’s shares at the IPO in October 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $168.90.

The end of the earnings season is always a good time to take a step back and see who shined (and who not so much). Let’s take a look at how modern fast food stocks fared in Q3, starting with Noodles .

Modern fast food is a relatively newer category representing a middle ground between traditional fast food and sit-down restaurants. These establishments feature an expanded menu selection priced above traditional fast food options, often incorporating fresher and cleaner ingredients to serve customers prioritizing quality. These eateries are capitalizing on the perception that your drive-through burger and fries joint is detrimental to your health because of inferior ingredients.

The 7 modern fast food stocks we track reported a slower Q3. As a group, revenues missed analysts’ consensus estimates by 0.9%.

Amidst this news, share prices of the companies have had a rough stretch. On average, they are down 6.7% since the latest earnings results.

Noodles

Offering pasta, mac and cheese, pad thai, and more, Noodles & Company is a casual restaurant chain that serves all manner of noodles from around the world.

Noodles reported revenues of $122.1 million, flat year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 1.9%. Overall, it was a very strong quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Noodles scored the biggest analyst estimates beat but had the weakest full-year guidance update of the whole group. The results were likely priced in, however, and the stock is flat since reporting. It currently trades at $0.66.

Is now the time to buy Noodles? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Best Q3: Shake Shack

Started as a hot dog cart in New York City's Madison Square Park, Shake Shack is a fast-food restaurant known for its burgers and milkshakes.

Shake Shack reported revenues of $367.4 million, up 15.9% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 1%. The business had a very strong quarter with an impressive beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 3.9% since reporting. It currently trades at $86.34.

Is now the time to buy Shake Shack? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Weakest Q3: Sweetgreen

Founded in 2007 by three Georgetown University alum, Sweetgreen is a casual quick service chain known for its healthy salads and bowls.

Sweetgreen reported revenues of $172.4 million, flat year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 3.1%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted full-year revenue guidance missing analysts’ expectations and full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly.

Sweetgreen delivered the highest full-year guidance raise but had the slowest revenue growth in the group. As expected, the stock is down 4.7% since the results and currently trades at $5.96.

Read our full analysis of Sweetgreen’s results here.

Portillo's

Begun as a Chicago hot dog stand in 1963, Portillo’s is a casual restaurant chain that serves Chicago-style hot dogs and beef sandwiches as well as fries and shakes.

Portillo's reported revenues of $181.4 million, up 1.8% year on year. This print missed analysts’ expectations by 0.7%. Zooming out, it was actually a strong quarter as it recorded a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates.

The stock is down 10.5% since reporting and currently trades at $4.69.

Read our full, actionable report on Portillo's here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Chipotle

Born from a desire to offer quick meals with fresh, flavorful ingredients, Chipotle is a fast-food chain known for its healthy, Mexican-inspired cuisine and customizable dishes.

Chipotle reported revenues of $3.00 billion, up 7.5% year on year. This number was in line with analysts’ expectations. However, it was a slower quarter as it recorded a miss of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and revenue in line with analysts’ estimates.

The stock is down 22.9% since reporting and currently trades at $30.71.

Read our full, actionable report on Chipotle here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Wrapping up Q3 earnings, we look at the numbers and key takeaways for the modern fast food stocks, including CAVA and its peers.

Modern fast food is a relatively newer category representing a middle ground between traditional fast food and sit-down restaurants. These establishments feature an expanded menu selection priced above traditional fast food options, often incorporating fresher and cleaner ingredients to serve customers prioritizing quality. These eateries are capitalizing on the perception that your drive-through burger and fries joint is detrimental to your health because of inferior ingredients.

The 7 modern fast food stocks we track reported a slower Q3. As a group, revenues missed analysts’ consensus estimates by 0.9%.

While some modern fast food stocks have fared somewhat better than others, they have collectively declined. On average, share prices are down 4.8% since the latest earnings results.

CAVA

Starting from a single Washington, D.C. location, CAVA operates a fast-casual restaurant chain offering customizable Mediterranean-inspired dishes.

CAVA reported revenues of $292.2 million, up 19.9% year on year. This print was in line with analysts’ expectations, but overall, it was a slower quarter for the company with full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations and a slight miss of analysts’ same-store sales estimates.

CAVA scored the fastest revenue growth of the whole group. Still, the market seems discontent with the results. The stock is down 2.7% since reporting and currently trades at $49.35.

Read our full report on CAVA here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Best Q3: Shake Shack

Started as a hot dog cart in New York City's Madison Square Park, Shake Shack is a fast-food restaurant known for its burgers and milkshakes.

Shake Shack reported revenues of $367.4 million, up 15.9% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 1%. The business had a very strong quarter with a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

The market seems content with the results as the stock is up 2.7% since reporting. It currently trades at $92.35.

Is now the time to buy Shake Shack? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Weakest Q3: Sweetgreen

Founded in 2007 by three Georgetown University alum, Sweetgreen is a casual quick service chain known for its healthy salads and bowls.

Sweetgreen reported revenues of $172.4 million, flat year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 3.1%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted full-year revenue guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly and full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations.

Sweetgreen delivered the highest full-year guidance raise but had the slowest revenue growth in the group. As expected, the stock is down 16.5% since the results and currently trades at $5.22.

Read our full analysis of Sweetgreen’s results here.

Noodles

Offering pasta, mac and cheese, pad thai, and more, Noodles & Company is a casual restaurant chain that serves all manner of noodles from around the world.

Noodles reported revenues of $122.1 million, flat year on year. This result topped analysts’ expectations by 1.9%. It was a very strong quarter as it also logged a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Noodles achieved the biggest analyst estimates beat but had the weakest full-year guidance update among its peers. The stock is up 8.3% since reporting and currently trades at $0.72.

Read our full, actionable report on Noodles here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Portillo's

Begun as a Chicago hot dog stand in 1963, Portillo’s is a casual restaurant chain that serves Chicago-style hot dogs and beef sandwiches as well as fries and shakes.

Portillo's reported revenues of $181.4 million, up 1.8% year on year. This number missed analysts’ expectations by 0.7%. Zooming out, it was actually a strong quarter as it produced a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates.

The stock is down 10.2% since reporting and currently trades at $4.71.

Read our full, actionable report on Portillo's here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Market Update

Thanks to the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, inflation has been on a steady path downward, easing back toward that 2% sweet spot. Fortunately (miraculously to some), all this tightening didn’t send the economy tumbling into a recession, so here we are, cautiously celebrating a soft landing. The cherry on top? Recent rate cuts (half a point in September 2024, a quarter in November) have propped up markets, especially after Trump’s November win lit a fire under major indices and sent them to all-time highs. However, there’s still plenty to ponder — tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and what 2025 might hold for the economy.

Let’s dig into the relative performance of Sweetgreen and its peers as we unravel the now-completed Q3 modern fast food earnings season.

Modern fast food is a relatively newer category representing a middle ground between traditional fast food and sit-down restaurants. These establishments feature an expanded menu selection priced above traditional fast food options, often incorporating fresher and cleaner ingredients to serve customers prioritizing quality. These eateries are capitalizing on the perception that your drive-through burger and fries joint is detrimental to your health because of inferior ingredients.

The 7 modern fast food stocks we track reported a slower Q3. As a group, revenues missed analysts’ consensus estimates by 0.9%.

While some modern fast food stocks have fared somewhat better than others, they have collectively declined. On average, share prices are down 4.3% since the latest earnings results.

Weakest Q3: Sweetgreen

Founded in 2007 by three Georgetown University alum, Sweetgreen is a casual quick service chain known for its healthy salads and bowls.

Sweetgreen reported revenues of $172.4 million, flat year on year. This print fell short of analysts’ expectations by 3.1%. Overall, it was a disappointing quarter for the company with full-year revenue guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly and full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly.

Sweetgreen delivered the slowest revenue growth and weakest full-year guidance update of the whole group. Unsurprisingly, the stock is down 13.1% since reporting and currently trades at $5.43.

Read our full report on Sweetgreen here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Best Q3: Shake Shack

Started as a hot dog cart in New York City's Madison Square Park, Shake Shack is a fast-food restaurant known for its burgers and milkshakes.

Shake Shack reported revenues of $367.4 million, up 15.9% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 1%. The business had a very strong quarter with a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

The market seems content with the results as the stock is up 4.6% since reporting. It currently trades at $93.99.

Is now the time to buy Shake Shack? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Wingstop

The passion project of two chicken wing aficionados in Texas, Wingstop is a popular fast-food chain known for its flavorful and crispy chicken wings offered in a variety of sauces and seasonings.

Wingstop reported revenues of $175.7 million, up 8.1% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 5%. It was a softer quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Wingstop delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates in the group. Interestingly, the stock is up 11.1% since the results and currently trades at $238.50.

Read our full analysis of Wingstop’s results here.

Chipotle

Born from a desire to offer quick meals with fresh, flavorful ingredients, Chipotle is a fast-food chain known for its healthy, Mexican-inspired cuisine and customizable dishes.

Chipotle reported revenues of $3.00 billion, up 7.5% year on year. This print met analysts’ expectations. More broadly, it was a slower quarter as it recorded a miss of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and revenue in line with analysts’ estimates.

The stock is down 23.5% since reporting and currently trades at $30.44.

Read our full, actionable report on Chipotle here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Portillo's

Begun as a Chicago hot dog stand in 1963, Portillo’s is a casual restaurant chain that serves Chicago-style hot dogs and beef sandwiches as well as fries and shakes.

Portillo's reported revenues of $181.4 million, up 1.8% year on year. This number lagged analysts' expectations by 0.7%. Aside from that, it was a strong quarter as it put up a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates.

The stock is down 9.5% since reporting and currently trades at $4.75.

Read our full, actionable report on Portillo's here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Market Update

Thanks to the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, inflation has been on a steady path downward, easing back toward that 2% sweet spot. Fortunately (miraculously to some), all this tightening didn’t send the economy tumbling into a recession, so here we are, cautiously celebrating a soft landing. The cherry on top? Recent rate cuts (half a point in September 2024, a quarter in November) have propped up markets, especially after Trump’s November win lit a fire under major indices and sent them to all-time highs. However, there’s still plenty to ponder — tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and what 2025 might hold for the economy.