Polygon finality disrupted by node bug, RPC services affected

While everyone's attention was fixed on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP, Stellar's token, XLM, has been trading away from the spotlight for months. But the latest price structure reveals an intriguing pattern, to ignore which would be a crime. 

As became evident thanks to this analysis by Ali Martinez, the 12-hour chart projects a classic head and shoulders setup, with the left shoulder formed back in February, the head marked by a deep low in April and the right shoulder shaping up right now. 

As for the neckline, it is just under $0.50 as the essential level for such structures.

Right now, XLM is sitting at about $0.38, which is where it has been maintained over the last week. From there, the bull scenario remains clear; should XLM break through the neckline, it could go beyond $0.50, even hitting targets like $0.62; $0.7; $0.83 and even as high as $1. 

Those levels line up with historical pivot zones, where liquidity tends to cluster for the Stellar token. 

Bear scenario for Stellar (XLM) price

But if buyers cannot hold the $0.3s and the structure loses its symmetry, the bullish case will fade fast. What looks like a breakout setup today could turn into another stalled XLM rally tomorrow. 

Right now, it looks like the risk-to-reward ratio is benefiting the bulls, especially with the overall market feeling better and more liquidity coming back to altcoins.

If you have been keeping an eye on Stellar's slow progress while XRP has been all over the news, this could be the time when XLM gets its own chance to show why it is worth a double-digit percentage gain heading into the next quarter.

While everyone's attention was fixed on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP, Stellar's token, XLM, has been trading away from the spotlight for months. But the latest price structure reveals an intriguing pattern, to ignore which would be a crime. 

As became evident thanks to this analysis by Ali Martinez, the 12-hour chart projects a classic head and shoulders setup, with the left shoulder formed back in February, the head marked by a deep low in April and the right shoulder shaping up right now. 

As for the neckline, it is just under $0.50 as the essential level for such structures.

Right now, XLM is sitting at about $0.38, which is where it has been maintained over the last week. From there, the bull scenario remains clear; should XLM break through the neckline, it could go beyond $0.50, even hitting targets like $0.62; $0.7; $0.83 and even as high as $1. 

Those levels line up with historical pivot zones, where liquidity tends to cluster for the Stellar token. 

Bear scenario for Stellar (XLM) price

But if buyers cannot hold the $0.3s and the structure loses its symmetry, the bullish case will fade fast. What looks like a breakout setup today could turn into another stalled XLM rally tomorrow. 

Right now, it looks like the risk-to-reward ratio is benefiting the bulls, especially with the overall market feeling better and more liquidity coming back to altcoins.

If you have been keeping an eye on Stellar's slow progress while XRP has been all over the news, this could be the time when XLM gets its own chance to show why it is worth a double-digit percentage gain heading into the next quarter.

Bitcoin experienced two consecutive double trap setups in recent months, when smart money skillfully offloaded billions without immediately crashing the market. 

Behind the price peaks of $123,000 and $124,000 was a calculated distribution strategy, which lured many investors into FOMO. The key question now is: Is this the end of the cycle or merely preparation for another leg up and a full-blown altseason?

When Bitcoin Peaks and Stealth Distribution Unfolds

In his latest analysis, trader Anderson highlighted crucial points regarding Bitcoin trading activity in July and August 2025.

July marked a milestone as Bitcoin broke above $123,000 for the first time, fueling strong belief that the market was entering a new growth phase. However, almost immediately afterward, Galaxy Digital confirmed that a Satoshi-era wallet sold over 80,000 BTC, valued at roughly $9 billion.

Remarkably, this massive sale barely shook the market, as liquidity peaked — enough demand existed to absorb the selling pressure. This was a textbook distribution play for smart money: using bullish sentiment and fresh inflows to quietly exit positions, without causing a collapse.

Bitcoin climbed to $124,000 by August, reinforcing that momentum remained intact. Yet contrary to expectations, buying power proved insufficient to sustain the breakout. Prices quickly lost stability, leaving late buyers trapped at the top.

This was the essence of the Bitcoin double trap: two consecutive peaks — one masked by large-scale distribution, and the other enticing retail investors into FOMO—the result: a realization that the market lacked genuine momentum.

Technical Levels and What Comes Next

Attention now shifts to key technical thresholds. The $112,581 level is the first Critical Close Level (CCL). If bulls fail to defend it, a deeper correction toward $98,000 becomes increasingly likely. Conversely, if buyers can reclaim and hold above $116,891 (the second CCL), Bitcoin may test the $124,000 zone again.

Rather than interpreting the July–August events as cycle-ending, investors should recognize them as professional distribution within a broader market roadmap.

To restore its structural strength, Bitcoin must consistently hold above $112,000. Successfully closing above $112,581 and $116,891 would reopen the path toward $124,000. The market could only build momentum for the next growth phase, targeting $148,000 and sparking a genuine altseason.

The recent Bitcoin double trap shows that the crypto market remains a battleground of strategy and psychology. Smart money manipulates liquidity and sentiment to shape expectations. Risk management must be front and center for investors in an environment vulnerable to such tactical deceptions.

When writing, Bitcoin is trading at $112,540, down 0.4%.

US crypto exchange Kraken is the latest platform to introduce tokenized securities in Europe, following an initial rollout in June.

Kraken has officially launched Backed’s tokenized securities offering, xStocks, to eligible European investors, the exchange told Cointelegraph on Wednesday.

The European expansion comes months after Kraken teased its tokenized stocks integration with Backed on the Solana blockchain in May, with plans to launch the offering to clients in over 140 countries globally.

The initial rollout “essentially covered all countries” except for the US, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and the European Union jurisdictions, a spokesperson for Kraken told Cointelegraph.

EU expansion a natural step

Kraken users in Europe can trade tokenized certificates tracking popular US equities through xStocks, gaining 24/5 access to extended trading hours without relying on traditional brokers or intermediaries.

The exchange’s clients are also enabled to move assets freely across compatible platforms, self-custody, or store the tokenized assets independently from third parties, the announcement added.

The Federal Reserve’s next decision has the markets buzzing, but one Polymarket trader is taking things to another level. Known online as JustWakingUp, the whale has placed a $15,000 bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. It’s a wager that could turn into a staggering $226,000 payout if correct, far larger than Wall Street’s mainstream call for a smaller move.

Markets Lean Toward a Smaller Cut

Most investors aren’t buying into the jumbo cut scenario. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 91% chance the Fed sticks to a more modest 25 basis point cut. Still, cracks in the U.S. economy have given the bold prediction more attention than usual. August’s jobs report came in weaker than expected, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently admitted the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than first reported in the year through March 2025, the biggest downward revision ever recorded. That has added pressure on the Fed to act more aggressively.

Different Views on the Bet

Some see the whale’s move as a clever risk-reward play rather than a true signal. Analyst Andrew Larick called it an “asymmetric bet.” With more than $2 million in profits already secured, losing $15,000 is minor for the trader. But if the Fed surprises with a larger cut, the payout would be huge, almost a quarter of a million dollars.

Not everyone agrees. Coase to Coast, another market commentator, argued that betting against Wall Street pros isn’t smart. He noted that options traders and banks usually have the most accurate read on Fed policy. In his view, real opportunities come when average investors act emotionally, creating chances to take the opposite side.

While many dismiss the possibility, big names like BlackRock and Standard Chartered have openly called for a 50 basis point cut. Their stance shows that even among institutions, there is room for debate about how far the Fed might go.

Data Could Tip the Scales

The deciding factor may come down to this week’s economic data. The Producer Price Index arrives Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index Thursday. If both show cooling inflation, the case for a bigger cut will gain momentum. That would not only validate the Polymarket whale’s bold gamble but could also send Bitcoin and stocks higher as easier monetary policy boosts liquidity.

For now, the whale is sitting on a small gain, but the real payoff depends on whether the Fed delivers a shock next week.

FAQs

A trader bet $15,000 that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points. If correct, the wager will yield a $226,000 payout on Polymarket.

The mainstream market expectation, per the CME FedWatch Tool, is a 91% probability of a smaller 25 basis point interest rate cut.

A larger-than-expected 50-point cut could boost Bitcoin and stock prices by increasing market liquidity through easier monetary policy.

Crypto staking platform Kiln said it is initiating an "orderly exit" of all its Ethereum validators following Monday's exploit targeting SwissBorg, which caused at least $40 million in losses on Solana.

The incident stemmed from hackers exploiting a vulnerability in an API provided by Kiln, SwissBorg’s staking partner, which allowed unauthorized access to wallets used in their Solana Earn program. But the platform has pledged full reimbursement from its treasury and confirmed that core user funds remain secure.

In response, Kiln initiated an orderly exit from all of its Ethereum validator nodes on September 10, 2025, as a precautionary measure to protect customer assets amid the ongoing investigation into the incident. The process is expected to take 10–42 days, during which staking rewards will continue to accrue, and withdrawals may take up to 9 days.

In a blog post on Tuesday, Paris-based Kiln said that no additional funds have been compromised beyond those tied to the SwissBorg case, and that the exit process is a "precautionary measure designed to ensure the continued integrity of the staked assets."

"Client assets remain secure," Kiln said, adding that the exit process is expected to take between 10 and 42 days, depending on the validator. Withdrawals, once initiated, may take up to nine days to process. "Validators still earn rewards while exiting," the team added.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT said Monday that SwissBorg lost about 192,600 SOL, worth roughly $41.3 million, due to the security breach.

Laszlo Szabo, co-founder and CEO of Kiln, said the company acted immediately after identifying a potential compromise in its infrastructure. "Exiting validators is the responsible step to protect stakers, and we are monitoring the process closely to ensure the security and reliability of our services," said Szabo.

Kiln has also temporarily suspended access to certain services while strengthening its infrastructure security. The company said it plans to publish a post-mortem once the review is complete.

SwissBorg said it intends to tap its Solana treasury to help users recover a substantial share of their balances, with final amounts to be determined soon. It added that it has engaged white-hat hackers and security partners in an effort to recover the stolen funds.

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