Platinum Market Forecast to Recover With Small Supply Surplus Expected in 2026

Malaysian palm oil futures traded above MYR 4,200 per tonne on Wednesday, rising for a fifth straight session amid stronger rival oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges.

Prices continued to rebound from last week’s four-month low, supported by data showing Malaysia’s palm oil exports jumped 23.8% yoy in October.

Expectations for firmer prices also grew as stricter land-seizure policies and plans to implement its B50 biodiesel mandate in the top producer raised supply concerns, with analysts warning that tighter regulation and stronger domestic demand could curb exports ahead.

Gains, however, were limited after the Malaysian Palm Oil Board set a lower crude palm oil reference price for December.

In India, the world's largest consumer, October palm oil imports fell to a five-month low as buyers shifted to soybean oil, pushing 2024/25 imports down 16% to a five-year low of 7.56 million tonnes.

EU imports also declined, falling 18% to 1.08 million tonnes so far in the 2025/26 season.

Silver rose toward $51 per ounce on Wednesday, moving away from one-week lows as a selloff in risk assets, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, lifted safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Signs of a weakening US labor market also supported expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller noting increased discussions of layoffs as firms prepare for softer demand and potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence.

However, markets are only pricing in roughly a 47% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction in December, down from over 90% a month ago.

Physical factors also continue to offer some support for the white metal, with India’s wedding season is boosting physical demand, while concerns over potential US tariffs on silver have added an additional layer of unease to the outlook.

Iron ore rises in Asian trading, with the most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange 0.8% higher at 791.50 yuan a ton. Prices have continued their upward trend, indicating strong buying pressure, Nanhua Futures analysts say in commentary. It adds that the market's fundamentals signal a supply-demand imbalance, and inventories continue to accumulate, though there is a structural shortage in terms of deliverable products. Shipments have picked up in the short term, with smaller miners keeping volumes high, Nanhua adds. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

Palm oil prices rise, driven by stronger soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade overnight and higher palm olein prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, says Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Pakistan-based Manzoor Trading. The vegetable oils often move in tandem due to their usage in similar products. Although a seasonal production slowdown is anticipated in the days ahead, festival-driven demand may remain firm, he says. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for February delivery is higher by 55 ringgit at 4,264 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

Gold prices fell to around $4,060 per ounce on Wednesday, giving back some gains from the previous session, as investors remained cautious ahead of major economic releases.

Key focal points include the FOMC meeting minutes later today, followed by Thursday’s jobs report, both of which could provide more clarity on the interest rate outlook.

US agencies have started rolling out data delayed by the government shutdown, with Americans claiming unemployment benefits hitting a two-month high in mid-October and continued claims rising to 1.9 million for the week ending October 18.

While the figures slightly lifted hopes for a December rate cut, investors worry that upcoming data could constrain the Fed’s ability to ease further amid policymakers’ skepticism.

Meanwhile, concerns over lofty tech valuations have weighed on risk sentiment, potentially increasing gold’s safe-haven appeal amid the ongoing equity market sell-off.

Copper edges higher in the Asian session, with the three-month LME contract rising 0.1% to $10,727.00 a ton. The base metal appears to be rangebound, say Sucden Financial analysts in a note, adding that copper faces support from previous lows at $10,577 a ton. Copper's longer-term narrative still seems underpinned by refined market tightness into the year-end, Sucden Financial adds. It expects downside pressure on metals to remain balanced, and any further price weakness may attract buyers.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)