Platinum Market Forecast to Recover With Small Supply Surplus Expected in 2026

By Giulia Petroni

The platinum market is showing signs of recovery after three years of deficit, with a leading industry body now forecasting a shift toward a modest surplus next year.

The precious metal is forecast to be in a smaller deficit of 692,000 ounces this year, from prior expectations of 850,000 ounces, due to a stronger-than-expected recovery in South African mining output and the impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian jewelry exports, according to the World Platinum Investment Council. Last year, the deficit was around 968,000 ounces.

Total platinum supply is expected to decline 2% to 7.129 million ounces, largely due to lower mining output, despite higher prices supporting recycling growth. Demand is set to fall 5% to 7.821 million ounces due to weaker industrial consumption.

Platinum's demand comes from several sectors, including automotive catalysts, jewelry, and industrial applications such as glass-manufacturing equipment and medical devices. Future prices have surged more than 68% this year, outpacing gold, with the most-active contract closing at $1,755.10 a troy ounce on Oct. 16 amid strong demand for precious metals.

Leasing rates for platinum soared to an average of 15% in the third quarter, up from just 1% in 2024, according to the WPIC. The jump signals a lack of availability driven by market deficits and trade uncertainties, which have led to pent-up supply locked in certain geographies.

Investment demand for the metal is expected to decline sharply by 52% in 2026, primarily due to expected outflows from CME warehouses and higher prices prompting profit-taking among ETF holders.

The decline in investment demand is expected to be the main factor leading to a more balanced market, with a modest 20,000-ounce surplus projected. Supply is expected to grow by 4%, driven by higher mining output and recycling, while demand is projected to fall by 6%.

Bar and coin demand, however, is projected to rise 30%.

Next year's forecast is based on the assumption that global trade tensions will ease.

"If these tensions continue, then 2026 is likely to be another year where we see platinum supply again fall short of demand," said Trevor Raymond, chief executive of the World Platinum Investment Council.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com