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However, the rally did not translate into sustained momentum. Instead, it triggered the heaviest bout of selling in six months.
Notcoin Pulls Away From Bitcoin
The correlation between Notcoin and Bitcoin has weakened considerably, falling to 0.43. This rapid decline shows NOT is no longer closely following Bitcoin’s price movements. Such separation can be advantageous if BTC continues its volatility or posts further declines, as NOT may avoid direct downside pressure.
However, it also introduces new risks. A strong Bitcoin rebound could pull liquidity away from smaller speculative assets, potentially dragging NOT lower even if its internal sentiment remains neutral.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows a sharp downtick over the past 24 hours, confirming heavy outflows. The indicator has moved deeper into negative territory, signaling that investors quickly exited their positions following the rally. Many likely sold to capture profits or reduce exposure, contributing to the steep pullback.
This selling pressure undermines the bullish impulse that initially fueled NOT’s surge. Sustained outflows at this pace could limit recovery attempts in the short term. Notcoin will need renewed accumulation and stability in the broader market to counterbalance the impact.
NOT Price Jumps Sharply
NOT price peaked at $0.000750 during the intra-day high before falling to $0.000615 at the time of writing. The rapid correction reflects the cooling sentiment and aligns with the outflow signals seen in market indicators.
If Bitcoin begins recovering, NOT may struggle. A rebound in BTC often redirects liquidity toward larger, less volatile assets, which could push NOT below its $0.000609 support. Losing this level would expose the token to a decline toward $0.000552.
Conversely, if Bitcoin drops again and NOT investors regain confidence, the altcoin could find support at $0.000609. A successful rebound from this level may lift the price toward $0.000723, offering a chance to invalidate the bearish outlook.
The latest market conditions have pushed hopes of an altcoin season even further out of reach. Bitcoin continues to dominate the market with a 59.6% share, and its recent struggle to hold bullish momentum has not translated into any meaningful boost for altcoins.
Broader sentiment has weakened as well, with the CMC Altcoin Season Index registering just 20, which still places the entire market in a Bitcoin-favored phase. Meanwhile, a critical indication has been detected from on-chain data that suggests this may be a rare moment to accumulate strong altcoin positions before conditions eventually turn.
Altcoins Stay Subdued As Market Sentiment Worsens
Altcoin performance has really been lagging behind Bitcoin throughout this year, and the persistent weakness is now being reflected across multiple market indicators. Bitcoin’s dominance has only increased, meaning the capital rotation that typically sparks an altcoin season has yet to begin.
The wait for an altcoin breakout has now stretched far longer than many anticipated. Even as the Bitcoin price is struggling, traders have not redirected liquidity toward altcoins. The leading cryptocurrency is now down by 28.9% from its October all-time high of $126,080. Instead, altcoins have also stayed muted, and their combined market cap shows no signs of outperforming the leading cryptocurrency.
Data from CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index shows the reading is currently at 20. The low reading shows that altcoins are still losing ground relative to Bitcoin. To put this into context, the index was at a reading of 83 this time last year.
The sentiment is also evident in CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index, which is now at 22. Readings this low signal hesitation across the market, as investors shy away from taking new positions, and this environment makes an altcoin season much harder to materialize.
CryptoQuant Data Signals A High-Value Accumulation Window
Technical analysis using data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that altcoin traders may be entering another window that has frequently been favorable for accumulation. The data compares the 30-day trading volume of altcoins against their yearly average and finds that current volumes have slipped back below that long-term line.
Each time this pattern has appeared in past cycles, it marked a period when activity was unusually quiet and traders were hesitant, but it also tended to show up just before the market picked up again.
According to the analysis, this drop in volume can be called a “buying zone,” which is a phase where dollar-cost averaging into selective altcoins has often paid off over time. These low-volume stretches can last for weeks or even months, giving investors enough room to build their positions gradually.
The message from the data is that this calmer part of the cycle may offer one of the better chances to position ahead of the next broader market move.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Prominent market analyst Michael Van de Poppe has shared four market conditions that would confirm an altcoin market rally. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market continues to experience a widespread correction, weighing down the price growth of several assets.
Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin: A Positive Sign For Altcoins?
Ethereum has shown more resilience in the last month than Bitcoin, which is largely interpreted as a bullish signal for altcoin enthusiasts. In the last week alone, the prominent altcoin reported a slight market gain of 0.86% compared to Bitcoin’s loss of 1.95%. When Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, it encourages increased altcoin activity, as investor confidence spreads beyond the market leader into the broader crypto ecosystem.
However, a full altcoin market takeover only comes into effect after the following technical developments. Firstly, de Poppe explains that Bitcoin, as the market leader, must achieve a breakthrough above $92,000 resistance, potentially testing the $100,000 mark, to signal renewed market strength. Additionally, the analyst states the ETH/BTC ratio must stay above its 20-day moving average (MA), indicating Ethereum’s continued dominance and further encouraging altcoin accumulation. Together, these signals could set the technical bedrock for a significant altcoin rally.
Macro Factors Could Amplify Altcoin Gains
Beyond crypto-specific indicators, de Poppe also touches on broader financial market plays that could initiate the next altcoin move. The analyst suggests that a 5-10% correction in gold prices, coupled with a peak in silver, could encourage capital to flow into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies including cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, a strong upward movement in the Nasdaq would indicate increased investor risk appetite, a development that often translates into heightened activity in the crypto markets. When combined with positive momentum in Bitcoin and Ethereum, these macro signals could create an environment ripe for a substantial altcoin rally. According to de Poppe, the fulfillment of these conditions indicates that altcoins could achieve market gains of 200%-300% in the present market cycle. Market Overview
At the time of writing, the total cryptocurrency market is valued at $3.04 trillion, following a significant 15.5% decline over the past month. Meanwhile, the altcoin market cap stands at $1.26 trillion, accounting for 41.44% of all circulating digital assets. In tandem, data from CoinMarketCap shows the altseason index at 20/100, as Bitcoin still maintains a dominant grip on overall market performance, with a 58.6% dominance.
In short, the conditions for a full-scale altcoin breakout have yet to materialize, but the key indicators highlighted above suggest that scenario may be approaching if momentum shifts decisively toward risk assets.
Charles Hoskinson's newest short post saying Monday, which is tomorrow, "is going to be a good day" was enough to generate a lot of attention from the ADA community, and it is no surprise really. The market for the Cardano token was dull recently as the price has been stuck near $0.41 for weeks without any narrative.
The reactions to Hoskinson's promise were pretty casual and straightforward: memes, jokes and lots of questions about what's going to happen on Monday, and even a Solana integration speculation.BINANCE:ADAUSD by TradingView">
In the meantime, there hasn't been any confirmed upgrade or announcement yet, and nothing has been set in stone as far as the date goes.
Nonetheless, the real interest comes from the timing, not the clues.
Cardano price lines up for Monday
After a long decline from late summer, Cardano's price has been moving sideways. Some may view this kind of calm as a setup for either a continuation or a short-term relief move. But one detail that may get holders curious is the simple fact that it is a seasonal thing.
Last December was one of ADA's better months, with a strong 277% recovery at the end that stood out against the earlier period of quiet accumulation. With ADA now pretty much at local lows, some are watching to see if a similar pattern emerges, especially if any ecosystem update from Hoskinson lands around the same time.
Charts show ADA stabilizing after the fall drop, but it is not clear if it is going to keep going up. Monday alone is not a game-changer, but when the market is feeling a bit slow and prices are stable, a little inspiration can go a long way.
Over the last three months, XRP’s on-chain activity has increased dramatically, with a number of network metrics approaching levels that resemble a 400% surge in comparison to their late-summer baselines.
What moves XRP forward
The total volume of payments, the number of payments made between accounts and the overall transaction throughput have all significantly increased. However, the price chart presents a far less optimistic picture, and this discrepancy is the main risk moving forward.
There is an improvement in network throughput. Daily payments usually fall into the upper end of the multi-month range, and spikes in payment volume show increasing value movement throughout the network. Chart by TradingView">
However, this momentum is not reflected in the market structure. The price of XRP is still stuck in a distinct downward channel and keeps missing declining resistance. More worrisomely, all attempts to break above the 20- and 50-day moving averages are swiftly rejected.
Moving averages sloping down
The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day major moving averages all slope downward, indicating a persistent bearish environment. The chart was momentarily distorted by a single vertical liquidation wick in October, but price action quickly re-anchored inside the broader downtrend, confirming rather than refuting structural weakness.
This is where reality and the surge narrative clash. Growing network usage frequently indicates early strength for emerging ecosystems, but XRP has shown time and time again that transaction growth by itself does not translate into market demand.
Because a large portion of the activity is driven by automated flows, arbitrage paths and institutional routing rather than speculative accumulation, the ledger processes high volumes even during times of poor price performance.
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