Palm Oil Ends Higher, Tracking Palm Olein Prices — Market Talk

A peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could lead to higher oil output and lower Brent prices, offering some relief to consumers, according to Bank of America analysts. "We believe Brent crude oil prices could drop between $5 and $10 a barrel if Russian barrels suddenly do not need to make a long journey to India or China, and more supply is suddenly made available," they say in a note to clients. Global refining margins could also decline, as Russian products like diesel would no longer have to travel long distances. Still, price risks remain as the U.S. might scale up sanctions on Russia if negotiations stall. Brent crude currently trades just under $75 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

Brent crude oil stayed just below $75 per barrel on Monday as investors watched for progress on a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which could ease sanctions and boost oil supply.

US President Donald Trump said he might meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss ending the war, with initial talks between the US and Russia set to take place in Saudi Arabia this week.

If negotiations succeed, more Russian oil could enter global markets, increasing supply.

Additionally, Iraq’s Kurdistan region signaled that its oil exports may resume next month.

However, oil prices are being held back by fears of a global trade war, as Trump has ordered officials to review potential retaliatory tariffs on countries that impose duties on US goods.

Newcastle coal futures fell toward $102 per tonne in February, the lowest in nearly four years as evidence of oversupply outweighed robust demand from top consumers.

China announced that its output is set to expand 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons in 2025 following a record-setting 2024, aiming to expand mining capacity to avoid availability risks from carbon emission limits and mine shutdowns for safety protocol breaches.

The development occurred as utilities already deal with record-high coal inventories, which rose by 12% in the two months ending October.

Also, Indonesian output rose to a record high 836 million tonnes in 2024, 18% above its target, while the country’s increasing investment in alternative power sources limited the outlook for coal demand.

The developments were enough to offset the bullish consumption from China.

Coal plant construction rose to its highest level in a decade last year, while consumption is set to rise amid fresh retaliatory tariffs on US LNG.

Comex gold futures' uptrend is taking a minor pause, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a report. Friday's price movements showed that the commodity is consolidating and is poised to test the $2,850/oz support level, the analyst says. However, support tends to be strong in a bullish technical setup, and both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages continue to trend upward, providing support for this setup, Chai says. The precious metal is likely to resume its bullish trajectory following a minor drop, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.5% higher at $2,895.69/oz. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

Silver prices stabilized above $32 per ounce on Monday after experiencing wild swings in the previous session.

The metal found support from a weaker dollar, driven by softening US economic data and easing concerns over a global trade war.

Investors also kept an eye on US-led efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine, which could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like silver.

However, silver reached a three-month high on Friday as strong industrial demand, particularly from the electrification and manufacturing sectors, supported prices.

Recent data revealed that China added 357 gigawatts of solar and wind power in 2024, a key driver of industrial silver usage.

On the solar energy front, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp pledged INR 1 trillion in wind and solar investments by the end of the decade, while Indonesia committed to adding 17 gigawatts of solar capacity through state-owned enterprises.

Copper futures fell to around $4.63 per pound on Monday, dropping nearly 3% over two sessions as concerns about potential US tariffs on copper imports eased.

The metal had surged to an eight-month high last week, fueled by fears of temporary tightness in the US copper market, with the spread between CME and LME contracts widening by more than 10%.

However, President Donald Trump suggested that tariffs on copper would take longer to implement than the recently announced tariffs on aluminum and steel, reducing immediate market concerns.

Meanwhile, in China, authorities have ordered restrictions on copper smelting due to excess capacity in the industry.

This overproduction has led to rising copper imports and falling inventories, although smelting firms are struggling to turn a profit.