Oil Holds Biggest Decline in Three Weeks With Glut in Focus

Commodity

Summary:

Oil stabilizes after its sharpest drop in weeks as traders await key agency reports on a growing global surplus. Rising seaborne supply pressures prices, with U.S. sanctions on Russian firms helping prevent a deeper Brent decline.

Oil steadied after the biggest drop this month as traders look to reports coming this week to assess the extent of an oversupply.

Brent crude traded held above $62 a barrel after tumbling 2% on Monday. The Energy Information Administration is set to release its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, with reports due from the International Energy Agency and OPEC later this week.

The IEA has predicted a record surplus next year, and the volume of oil sailing the oceans is rising. Prices for refined fuels have softened in recent days, removing one factor that has supported crude during the last few weeks. Still, Brent ultimately remains in the tight $4-a-barrel range it has traded in since the start of November.

“Eventually, the current huge blob of oil at sea will move onshore where the sensation of rising crude oil stocks will be more tangible,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “The only reason why Brent crude hasn’t fallen faster and deeper is because of the US sanctions related to Rosneft and Lukoil.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The Federal Reserve faces an unusually contentious meeting this week that will test Chair Jerome Powell’s ability to corral the necessary support from fellow policymakers for a third straight interest rate cut.

The Fed’s 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided over whether to lower borrowing costs again. The divisions have been exacerbated by the convoluted nature of the economy: Inflation remains elevated, which would typically lead the Fed to keep its key rate unchanged, while hiring is weak and the unemployment rate has risen, which often leads to rate cuts.

Some economists expect three Fed officials could vote against the quarter-point cut that Powell is likely to support at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, which would be the most dissenting votes in six years. Just 12 of the 19 members vote on rate decisions. Several of the non-voting officials have also said they oppose another rate cut.

“It’s just a really tricky time. Perfectly sensible people can reach different answers,” said William English, an economist at the Yale School of Management and a former top Fed staff member. “And the committee kind of likes to work by consensus, but this is a situation where that consensus is hard to reach.”

The debate, which has also been fueled by a lack of official federal data on employment and inflation during the government shutdown, could be a preview of where the Fed is headed after Powell’s term as chair ends in May. His successor will be appointed by President Donald Trump and is widely expected to be Kevin Hassett, the top White House economic adviser. Hassett may push for faster cuts than other officials would be willing to support.

English said the potential for greater disagreement could be seen as a sign of healthy debate between different views. The Fed’s tradition of reaching unanimous or nearly-unanimous decisions has often been criticized as evidence of “groupthink.” Yet some Fed officials warn that there are downsides to sharp splits. If the committee votes end up as 8-4 or even 7-5, then financial markets could lose confidence in where the central bank is headed next.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, for example, has said that in the case of a 7-5 vote, if just one official changed their view, it could bring about a significant shift in Fed policy.

For now, however, most economists expect what’s called a “hawkish cut” — the Fed will reduce rates, while also signaling that it may stand pat for some time to assess the economy’s health. (“Hawks” refer to officials who generally support higher rates to combat inflation, while “doves” more often support lower rates to boost hiring).

The president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, Jeffrey Schmid, is expected to dissent for a second straight meeting in favor of keeping rates unchanged. He may be joined by St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem. Fed governor Stephen Miran, who was hurriedly appointed to the Fed’s board by Trump in September, will likely dissent for a third straight meeting in favor of a larger, half-point reduction in the Fed’s key rate.

After the Fed’s last meeting Oct. 28-29, several policymakers said they would prefer to keep rates unchanged at the December meeting, leading Wall Street investors to briefly downgrade the odds of a third rate cut to less than 30%. But then John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that this year’s uptick in inflation appears to be a temporary blip driven by Trump’s tariffs that would likely fade by the middle of 2026.

As a result, “I still see room for a further adjustment” in the Fed’s short-term rate, Williams said. As president of the New York Fed and vice chair of the rate-setting committee, Williams gets to vote on every interest rate decision and is close to Powell. Analysts said it was unlikely Williams would have made such a statement without Powell’s support. Investors rapidly lifted the odds of a cut, which now are at 89%, according to CME Fedwatch.

“You’re seeing the power of the chair,” said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citi and also a former top Fed staffer. “Members of the committee, my instinct is, are wanting to underscore their support for Powell.”

Powell has come under relentless attack from Trump, who just last month said he would “love to fire his ass” and called Powell “this clown.”

The Fed is required by Congress to seek low inflation and maximum employment, two goals that are potentially in conflict.

For now, Powell and many other Fed officials are more concerned about hiring and unemployment rather than inflation. While the official government jobs reports have been delayed, in September the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the third straight increase and the highest in four years.

Payroll provider ADP, meanwhile, reported that in November, its data showed companies shed 32,000 jobs. And many large firms have announced sweeping layoffs.

Worries that the job market could get worse are a key reason a rate cut in December is likely — but not necessarily beyond that. Fed officials will have up to three months of backlogged jobs and inflation data to consider when they meet in late January. Those figures could show inflation remains stubbornly high or that hiring has rebounded, which would suggest further cuts aren’t needed.

“What they may end up agreeing to do is cut rates now, but give some guidance ... that signals that they’re on pause for a while after that,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said.

Source: AP

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Michelle

Stocks

Economic

Wells Fargo said in a note Tuesday that the Trump administration's decision to lift export controls on Nvidia's H200 GPU shipments to China could soon extend to rivals AMD and Intel.

Analyst Aaron Rakers called the move "an incremental positive," adding that investors could view it as a "$25-$30B/annum+ revenue and +$0.60-$0.70/sh EPS impact" for Nvidia.

The announcement, disclosed on Truth Social, revealed that the U.S. has informed China's President Xi that Washington will allow Nvidia to ship its H200 into China, easing restrictions that had blocked sales of the H20 chip since April.

Wells Fargo notes that the administration will not include Blackwell GPUs in the deal, though reports in October suggested approval for the B30A.

Nvidia had previously reported export-control impacts of roughly $4.6B in fiscal Q1 and $4.0B in fiscal Q2, with China historically representing 20–25% of its data center revenue.

The bank flagged several open questions, including "incremental capacity allocation," the approval process for Chinese customers, whether Nvidia can repurpose written-down H20 inventory for H200, and the "25% of revenue paid to US Gov't" under export-control rules.

Crucially, Wells Fargo says the policy shift also covers AMD and Intel, with both expected to benefit.

AMD's MI308X had already been granted licenses, but the ban had cut revenue guidance by about $700M for Q2 2025 and $1.5B for 2025.

Wells Fargo now expects AMD to receive licenses for its higher-performance MI300X and MI325X accelerators, the latter delivering "20,919 TPP."

With AI-chip demand booming and export barriers falling, Wells Fargo suggests Nvidia may not be the only winner, and that AMD and Intel could soon see similar tailwinds.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Economic

Futures tied to the largest U.S. stock indices point broadly higher. A major -- and possibly contentious -- Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday looms large, while traders are pouring through the details of a new twist in the potential acquisition of sections, or even all of, Warner Bros Discovery. Elsewhere, the White House says it will let Nvidia begin shipping its second-most advanced H200 processors to China, and Bitcoin edges lower.

Futures inch up

U.S. stock futures were hovering just above the flatline on Tuesday, as investors geared up for a much-anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision later in the week.

By 02:55 ET (07:55 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 26 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had risen by 8 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 26 points, or 0.1%.

The main averages on Wall Street ended lower in the prior session, weighed down by a climb in Treasury yields, in a sign that caution may be prevailing ahead of the Fed’s upcoming announcement on Wednesday (more below).

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which tend to move inversely to prices, also gained upward impetus from a powerful earthquake which struck off the coast of Japan.

Beyond the Fed and bonds, traders were preparing for the release of earnings reports from tech giants Oracle and Broadcom this week, which come as markets have fretted over massive, and often debt-driven, spending on artificial intelligence.

In individual stocks, shares of Confluent jumped after IBM said it would buy the data-infrastructure firm, while a bearish outlook from Morgan Stanley sent Tesla’s stock price down by 3%.

Paramount’s hostile bid for Warner Bros Discovery

The battle in Hollywood to acquire Warner Bros Discovery and potentially reshape the media landscape in the process has taken another turn.

Just days after streaming titan Netflix was named the winner of a bidding war for the studio behind hits like "The Godfather," Paramount Skydance said it had launched a hostile bid worth $108.4 billion.

The amount would surpass the $72 billion equity deal Netflix had secure for Warner’s television, film studios and streaming assets -- and represent a 139% premium over the company’s value from before the buyout negotiations began. Notably, Paramount’s rival bid would be for all of Warner, including its cable television properties.

Warner’s board of directors said on Monday that it would review Paramount’s offer, although it did not change its position on the Netflix transaction and told the company not to take any action on the rival proposal.

Trump allows Nvidia to export H200 chips to China

Nvidia will now be allowed by the U.S. to export its H200 AI chips to China, while Washington will rake in a 25% fee on these sales, President Donald Trump has said.

It marks a modest departure from some export restrictions the U.S. had placed on sending cutting-edge AI processors to China. Previously, the most advanced semiconductor Nvidia was able to ship to the country was its prior-generation H20 model, reflecting long-time concern among some U.S. lawmakers around advances in China’s military and industrial capabilities.

The H200 stands to be around six times more powerful than the H20, according to Reuters, citing research from the non-partisan Institute for Progress think tank.

Still, given Beijing’s recent crackdown on domestic companies using U.S. technology, it is not yet clear if the White House’s new policy will boost sales for Nvidia.

Shares of Nvidia, a darling of the AI boom, ticked higher in extended hours U.S. trading, adding to a 1.7% rise in the stock on Monday.

Fed to begin two-day meeting

Attention is beginning to shift to the start of the Fed’s latest two-day policy meeting, which investors are expecting will end on Wednesday with a cut to U.S. interest rates.

Bets on a 25-basis point reduction by the U.S. central bank have increased following a slate of relatively tepid economic data which underlined pressure on the American job market, a marginal increase in consumer spending and stable -- albeit elevated -- inflation.

The chances of such a drawdown now stand at roughly 89%, CME FedWatch has shown. The Fed’s current target rate is now at 3.75% to 4%.

Still, there is an outside chance that officials choose to leave rates unchanged at that level, with some policymakers recently flagging concerns around unveiling a third cut since September during a time when fresh economic data has been scarce because of a record-long government shutdown.

Analysts have suggested that the decision may prove to be one of the most contentious in years.

Bitcoin edges lower

Bitcoin was showing signs of consolidation, with traders refraining from taking fresh positions ahead of the Fed gathering.

Lower interest rates typically weaken the U.S. dollar and reduce returns on cash and fixed-income assets, possibly making alternative, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin more attractive.

Amid these expectations of a prolonged cutting cycle, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency has had a rollercoaster 2025, notching fresh all-time peaks and sliding lower as debate over rates, tariffs, and AI rocked stock markets.

This has in turn underpinned a growing sense that a correlation between Bitcoin and risk-assets like stocks has strengthened.

Source: investing

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Adam

Economic

MARKET WRAPS Stocks:

European shares were mixed on Tuesday as all eyes turned to the Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting.

Before their decision, Fed officials will have one last chance to assess the labor market, with Tuesday's job openings and labor turnover survey.

The Fed's interest-rate decision on Wednesday looks like a close call, with the FOMC divided about how much more insurance it needs to provide for an economy showing an unusual mix of solid growth but sluggish hiring, said Russell Investments.

Interest-rate futures show traders are pricing in an 89% probability of a quarter-point rate cut, according to CME data, but there's uncertainty about the rate cut path ahead.

"We expect that the Fed will slow or stop its easing cycle in early 2026 at a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5%," Russell Investments said.

New forecasts for the rate path will also be published as part of the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections.

"We may very well get an announcement that the Fed is ready to step in and provide liquidity support to fund markets at year end and into 2026," BNY said.

Shares on the Move

London miners fell in opening trade as investors awaited the likely interest-rate cut by the Fed.

Evidence heading into the day points to a clear picture emerging of labor-market weakness, ANZ said.

"Improving inflation is good news, but it may also reflect weak demand, which ultimately translates into a weak labor market ."

European defense stocks rose, following a Bloomberg article that said Germany is set to approve orders worth 52 billion euros next week.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures inched up ahead of the Fed's last rate-setting meeting of the year, which starts today.

Nvidia is also in focus after Trump said he would let the semiconductor maker export its H200 chip to China-and that the U.S. would receive a 25% cut.

Forex:

The dollar traded steady.

Markets are anticipating that Wednesday's rate cut "will be delivered with a more hawkish communication," Danske Bank said.

ING said the dollar would likely rise if delayed JOLTS job openings figures beat expectations.

"With market pricing of further Fed easing still vulnerable, we suspect the dollar's downside is limited into the Fed meeting."

Bonds:

Bond markets got a taste of returning to yield levels not seen since before the 2008 global financial crisis after significant moves on Monday, Deutsche Bank said.

"There was a real sense yesterday that markets were pricing back in a pre-GFC normal of higher long-term rates , particularly given the background concerns over the current fiscal trajectory."

The 10-year Bund yield fell, having hit its highest since March on Monday.

According to ING, these higher levels seem justified based on fundamentals.

"Euro rates started the week in an incredibly bearish mood , catching markets (and ourselves) quite by surprise."

Treasury yields were mixed.

"The closer we get to Wednesday's FOMC rate decision--and more importantly the Fed narrative and outlook into 2026--the more fragile market sentiment appears to become," First Abu Dhabi Bank said .

Energy:

Oil prices slipped in early trading , extending the previous session's losses as traders focused on talks to end the war in Ukraine, a looming global supply surplus and U.S. interest rates.

Metals:

Gold prices were broadly steady as uncertainty builds around the Fed's interest-rate outlook past December.

"With the Fed meeting now the dominant driver , we expect metals to remain range-bound until [Fed Chair] Powell provides clearer guidance on the pace of easing beyond December," Sucden Financial said.

State Street said gold was likely to consolidate in the range $4,000-$4,500 an ounce in 2026. This year's structural trends are unlikely to reverse and collectively still point to a supportive backdrop for prices, it added.

Copper

Copper gained in early trade after notching a record high on Monday. The prospect of stronger demand in China is supporting the base metal's gains , said ANZ.

Iron

Iron ore prices declined.

The prospect of further fiscal stimulus has failed to boost sentiment in steel and iron ore markets, ANZ said.

EMEA HEADLINES

EU Probes Google Over Use of Online Content to Power AI

The European Union opened an antitrust investigation into Alphabet's Google, citing concerns about how the search giant uses uploaded content on platforms such as YouTube to power and train its artificial-intelligence tools.

The European Commission said Tuesday that it is looking into whether Google is distorting competition by imposing unfair terms and conditions on publishers or by giving itself privileged access to their content. The EU's executive arm said such practices could put Google's own AI tools at an advantage over competitors.

German Exports Inched Up in October Despite U.S. Weakness

German exports edged up in October, helped by resilient demand for goods from within the European Union, which offset a tariff-impacted slowdown in exports to the U.S.

Exports of goods rose 0.1% on month, German statistics agency Destatis said Tuesday, better than expectations of a 0.5% on-month decline from a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Exports rose 1.5% in September.

BMW Appoints Company Veteran Milan Nedeljkovic as New Chief

BMW named Milan Nedeljkovic as its new boss, choosing a company veteran to lead the automaker from next year.

Nedeljkovic has worked at BMW since 1993 and has been a member of the board of management responsible for production since 2019.

Ford and Renault Team Up in Europe to Compete Against Low-Price Chinese Cars

Ford is turning to French peer Renault to help reboot its European business, in a fresh sign of the upheaval being caused by Chinese automakers outside the U.S.

"We know we're in a fight for our lives in our industry, and no better example than here in Europe," Ford Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley told journalists in Paris.

GLOBAL NEWS

Americans See Inflation Stuck Where It Is Now-and Are Still Downbeat About the Economy

Americans are still worried about inflation and the broader state of the economy, but they are growing marginally more confident that inflation won't get worse.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that households' inflation expectations were unchanged in November across both the short and longer term, according to survey results released Monday.

China's Manufacturing Is Booming Despite Trump's Tariffs

President Trump retook the White House almost a year ago promising a manufacturing boom.

He got one-in China.

Gaza Sits Under 68 Million Tons of Rubble. A Look at the Daunting Task Ahead.

The war in Gaza has reduced much of the enclave to rubble, with most of its buildings either destroyed or damaged. Clearing it to pave the way for rebuilding will be a gargantuan task that is expected to take years and cost over a billion dollars.

Thousands of Israeli airstrikes, along with fighting on the ground and controlled demolitions, have destroyed more than 123,000 buildings in the Gaza Strip and left an additional 75,000 damaged to varying degrees, accounting for 81% of all the structures in the enclave, according to the latest review of satellite images by the United Nations.

Europe Scrambles for Influence in U.S.-Led Peace Talks on War in Ukraine

European powers are pushing to have a bigger say in the U.S.-led peace process to ensure that Ukraine isn't forced to accept a deal that leaves it, and the rest of Europe, vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

The leaders of the U.K., France and Germany met in British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Downing Street residence with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, their latest effort to influence negotiations as the U.S. pushes for a swift agreement to end the war.

Trump Backs Away From Pledge to Release Boat-Strike Video

WASHINGTON-President Trump backed away from a vow to release video of a controversial Sept. 2 attack on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean, including a portion showing the killing of two men who survived the initial strike.

The president last week said he would "certainly release" the footage of the entire operation, but that was before the mounting uproar over the operation. Democrats said after viewing the video in closed briefings on Capitol Hill that the follow-up attack on the two survivors may have constituted a war crime. Republicans have defended the strike, but some have also joined in calling for the video to be released.

The Curriculum Flowchart That Has Texas Professors Up in Arms

A controversy is swirling at a Texas university. The trigger? A flowchart.

On Dec. 1, the new chancellor of the Texas Tech University system sent professors a diagram laying out a chain of approval for course material. It accompanied a memo with rules for teaching about race and gender, including a ban on "advocacy/promotion of race or sex-based prejudice."

Source : morningstar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The independent research house, founded in 1949, says UK gilts will go from being the 2nd best performer in its class of 2025 to the best-performing bond market in 2026.

BCA shows gilts delivered the best currency-hedged returns of 2025 after U.S. Treasuries.

"We were on the right side of this trade in 2025 and believe gilts are most likely to take the top spot in 2026," says BCA.

The performance will rely on a dovish Bank of England and reduced concerns about the sustainability of British government debt.

The call has implications for sterling, which could track bond yields lower.

A bond yield is the effective interest rate yielded to investors holding a bond; it is inversely correlated with the bond's underlying value. i.e., if a bond rises, its yield falls.

If foreign exchange markets track relative changes in bond yields next year, as is traditionally the case, then the drop in yields would weigh on the pound.

UK Gilts Forecast to Outperform in 2026 by BCA Research_1

Above: GBP/EUR has tracked falling bond yields (lower panel) lower in 2025.

BCA's view on gilt outperformance rests on a deteriorating economy that will prompt the Bank of England to provide support by lowering interest rates.

By lowering interest rates, the Bank will support bond prices, most notably in the short-dated brackets.

"In the UK, the recently accelerating rise in the unemployment rate has already triggered a recessionary warning signal, raising concerns about the UK's economic outlook. Vulnerable labour markets in the US and UK keep recession risks elevated heading into 2026, indicating a flat-to-lower direction for yields," says BCA.

The market is pricing a cut from the Bank of England next week with another by April.

An additional third is priced over the remainder of the year.

"We believe those are virtually guaranteed with inflation normalising," says BCA.

However, labour market weakness creates "material downside to the policy rate, making the BoE the most likely central bank to surprise dovishly in 2026," adds the research.

Further Bank Rate cuts will assist gilts while suppressing their yield.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Glendon

Commodity

Crude Oil Holds the Line as Traders Test Key Support — What's Next for the Oil Prices Forecast?

Light crude is treading water on Tuesday, nearly flat after an early dip that briefly tagged a one-week low. Yesterday's rejection at the 50-day moving average continues to hang over the market, and price is still camped inside the short-term retracement zone between the 50% level at $59.23 and $58.44. Buyers haven't thrown in the towel, but they're not pressing either. For now, it's a waiting game.

At 11:41 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $59.08, up $0.20 or +0.34%.

WTI Stalls as Ukraine Talks and Fed Outlook Keep Traders Cautious

The broader crude market is soft, carrying over Monday's 2% slide. Supply worries resurfaced after Iraq restored output at Lukoil's West Qurna-2 field, a major source of crude. At the same time, traders are keeping one eye on Ukraine peace discussions and the other on the Fed's upcoming rate decision.

The market isn't taking big bets until it knows whether negotiations move closer to a deal or fall apart altogether. A breakdown could spark fresh buying, while any hint of Russian barrels returning to the global market would likely pressure prices. For now, crude is sitting in a tight range — and traders seem content to let headlines steer the next swing.

Oil Prices Projections Lean on Supply Signals and IEA Guidance

Positioning is cautious. G7 and EU discussions around shifting from a price cap on Russian crude to a full maritime services ban add another layer of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, traders are watching the upcoming IEA report for clarity on supply. The agency has repeatedly highlighted surplus risk ahead, and if December's release keeps that theme alive, sellers may press WTI toward the broader range support flagged by analysts near $57.50–$56.80.

That aligns with the technical floor already in play: if buyers don't defend the retracement zone, the November 25 main bottom at $57.10 is back on the table.

Crude Oil News Today: Fed Cut Expectations Offer Only Modest Support

Markets are pricing an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut on Wednesday. Lower rates usually help demand, but traders aren't treating it as a game-changer here. With talk of an oversupplied market persisting — especially into the IEA's longer-range view — the idea of a sustained bounce still feels like a stretch unless fundamentals shift.

Short-term support may hold if the Fed delivers, but buyers need more than a rate cut to challenge the ceiling created by the 50-day moving average.

Bottom Line: Bias Still Soft Unless Buyers Reclaim the 50-Day Moving Average

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

WTI isn't falling apart, but the tone is heavy. If sellers push through $58.44, a run toward $57.10 becomes a real possibility. On the flip side, a move back above the 50% retracement at $59.23 would show buyers stepping in — but the market doesn't turn constructive unless price breaks cleanly above the 50-day moving average.

Until then, the oil prices forecast leans bearish, with rallies likely sold and the retracement zone acting as the pivot for near-term trade.