Nymex Overview: String of Oil Gains in Jeopardy — OPIS

Oat decreased to 264.75 USd/Bu, the lowest since September 2020.

Over the past 4 weeks, Oat lost 1.72%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 11.78%.

A $12 billion government aid package looks to offer short-term help for farmers affected by the U.S.-China trade impasse, lifting them over 2025's financial hump of high input costs and low commodity prices. But farmers are "unimpressed," says Peter Meyer of Muddy Boots Ag, as many see this as a band-aid over fundamental structural issues for the U.S. agriculture. "For the most part, farmers are against these payments as they see it as pass through to input suppliers, banks, and the like," Meyer says. "There is plenty of concern that these payments are becoming the new norm and will eventually strike an even stronger blow to the farm economy." Soybeans are leading the CBOT lower, with the most-active contract down 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

By Giulia Petroni

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Dec. 8-12 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The broader economic outlook is optimistic ahead of Wednesday's monetary policy decision by the Federal Reserve. Traders are betting heavily on a quarter-point rate cut, though the focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for cues about what comes next.

The December USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, though it is expected to be broadly uneventful since crop-yield updates don't come until January, according to Peak Trading Research. Meanwhile, the USDA and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, are still working through shutdown-related backlogs and will release delayed export sales and Commitment of Traders reports this week, analysts at the firm said.

The latest available position data, covering the week of Oct. 28, showed strong buying. That coincided with the week when China's state-owned grain buyer purchased U.S. soybean cargoes ahead of meetings between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, according to Peak Research.

December is generally a bullish month, with investors often putting money into commodities and inflation-protecting assets in preparation for the new year. Stock markets also usually get a boost from the holiday rally.

Looking at the weather, Brazil's newly planted soybeans are set to receive timely moisture from scattered storms this week. Argentina is expecting heavy rain in the north, which could slow planting, though the precipitation is generally welcome in what looks to be a weak La Niña year that carries a risk of dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil later in the season, analysts at Peak Trading said.

Chicago wheat futures slip 0.6% to $5.33 a bushel in European afternoon trade Monday, while corn was down 0.3% at $4.43 a bushel. Soybean prices fell 1.1% to $10.93 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES: Coffee prices were down 2.1% to $3.67 a pound, pressured by expectations of a bumper Vietnamese crop and rising exports, even as rain and flooding slow the harvest.

"Arabica coffee has been one of the strongest performers amongst agri commodities this year, with it up more than 25%," ING analysts said. "This strength has come as a result of poor weather weighing on output from key producer, Brazil, while tight stocks and U.S. tariffs on Brazil have only provided further upside."

The supply outlook, however, is improving, with expectations for stronger arabica production in Brazil and a solid robusta crop in Vietnam, while potential tariff relief on U.S. coffee imports could boost supplies as buyers return to global markets to restock, according to the firm.

Sugar edged 0.2% higher to 15 cents a pound.

Meanwhile, cocoa was up 0.1% to $5,704 a ton on Monday. For the 2025-26 season, ING forecasts another surplus of around 175,000 tons, driven by stronger output from South America and a partial recovery in Ghana, while production in Ivory Coast is seen as broadly stable.

Demand has also helped swing the market back into surplus as last season's high prices curbed consumption, and buyers are likely to remain cautious. A surplus backdrop should keep prices trending lower in 2026, with rebuilding inventories helping to ease the extreme volatility of recent years, ING said.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

By Kirk Maltais

Export inspections of U.S. soybeans are up from the prior week, but remain well behind the amount of shipments seen at this time last year.

In its latest report, the Agriculture Department said soybean inspections for the week ended Dec. 4 totaled 1.02 million metric tons. That's up from 932,486 tons from last week, but only a little more than half the amount reported at this time last year.

Soybean futures on the CBOT are down 1.1% in late morning trading, leading the grain complex lower. Corn fell 0.2%, and wheat retreated 0.5% as traders prepare for events this week, including tomorrow's WASDE report and the Federal Reserve's decision as market bellweathers.

Corn inspections totaled 1.45 million tons for the week, while wheat finished at 393,341 tons. Shipments reported by the USDA that were destined to China totaled 119,875 tons, the first time in many months that shipments to China were reported.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

To see related data, search "USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons" in Dow Jones NewsPlus.

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Intercontinental Exchange canola futures continued lower, abetted by a larger-than-expected canola crop and declines in comparable oils.

Last week, Statistics Canada pegged the canola harvest at a record 21.80 million metric tons, just as the market copes with little to no exports to China.

"The canola carryout is going to be crazy," an analyst said Monday, warning that StatCan could raise its production estimate come summer.

The nearby canola contracts could sink to lows not seen since China imposed their tariffs on the oilseed earlier this year, a trader said.

The Chicago soy complex and Malaysian palm oil were down, while MATIF rapeseed tacked on small gains. Weakness in crude oil weighed on the vegetable oils.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Agriculture Department is scheduled to release its next supply and demand report, including its world oilseed report.

The Canadian dollar was slightly higher at 72.25 U.S. cents, compared to Friday's close of 72.15.

Approximately 43,850 canola contracts traded as of 11:31 a.m. EST.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton:

Contract Price Change

 
   Jan      611.00 dn 6.90 
   Mar      624.10 dn 7.00 
   May      637.00 dn 6.80 
   Jul      645.90 dn 6.50 
 

Source: MarketsFarm, news@marketsfarm.com

By Nate Wolf

Shares of Air Products & Chemicals fell sharply Monday after the world's largest hydrogen supplier said it was in talks with ammonia company Yara International to form a production and distribution partnership.

The collaboration would encompass two ongoing projects. First, Yara would acquire the ammonia facilities at Air Products' low-carbon energy complex in Louisiana for an estimated $8 billion to $9 billion. In turn, Air Products would supply 80% of the hydrogen to Yara to support its ammonia production under a 25-year agreement.

The second prong of the agreement would be the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to begin commercial production in 2027. Air Products and Yara plan to reach an agreement in which Yara would sell the ammonia not sold by Air Products on a commission basis.

Air Products stock dropped 7.5%, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 on the day. Monday was the stock's largest single-day decline since Feb. 5, 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The two companies explained the partnership as a way to "meet increasing demand for low-emission ammonia in the coming years." Air Products produces hydrogen and ammonia at scale, while Yara is the world's largest trader and shipper of ammonia.

Investors likely want to see the details of the agreements, though, to understand the benefits each side will realize and the risks they will assume.

Norway-traded shares of Yara closed trading up 0.9% on Monday.

Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.