Nymex Overview: Petroleum Futures Continue to Bleed Lower — OPIS

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--ICE Futures canola contracts were posting small losses at midday Monday, taking some direction from declines in the Chicago soy complex.

The January soyoil contract fell below psychological chart support at 50 cents per pound, while the more-active March contract also tested that key technical level.

Large supplies continue to overhang the canola market, with a lack of export demand from China adding to the burdensome outlook.

Canola futures touched fresh nine-month lows in early trade but uncovered support to the downside. End user bargain hunting and a lack of significant farmer selling tempered the declines.

The Canadian dollar was holding steady with Friday's close at midday.

An estimated 33,800 canola contracts traded as of 11:35 EST.

Prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne at 11:35 EST:

 
           Price      Change 
Jan       604.30     dn 2.20 
Mar       617.20     dn 1.90 
May       628.80     dn 2.20 
Jul       636.70     dn 2.20 
 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

12:05 ET--The big gains and record highs posted by precious metal futures this year are not expected to repeat in 2026. In an outlook published Monday, Capital Economics says that it forecasts gold and silver prices to turn lower next year, backtracking as traders take profits made in 2025. "We think the recent run of strong gains will come to an end," says the firm. "In the case of gold, our view that the Fed will cut rates by less than market participants are anticipating." For silver, Capital Economics forecasts that the market deficit seen for next year won't be enough to support record-high prices. "It is worth noting that several years of market deficits have previously had little influence on prices." Gold is flat today, while silver rises 2.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

By Giulia Petroni

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Dec. 15-19 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The broader macroeconomic mood is mixed following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates again in December, with a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices.

Traders are now focused on the monetary policy outlook for next year after the U.S. central bank left the door open for further cuts. Key data points, including the nonfarm payrolls report on Tuesday and CPI inflation figures on Thursday, will be closely watched, as will policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, which could influence dollar volatility.

Meanwhile, the USDA and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, have released a new accelerated catch-up schedule following the record-long U.S. government shutdown. "The CFTC will be caught up by Dec. 29, and the first fully "normal" Tuesday-Friday week will be Jan. 9," according to Peak Trading Research.

December typically sees a bullish trend, with investors allocating capital into commodities and inflation-protecting assets ahead of the new year. Stock markets also tend to get a boost from the holiday rally.

"This is now the most bullish two-month stretch of the entire year for the agriculture complex," analysts at Peak Trading Research said. "It's a great time to buy dips, especially in cotton, cattle, corn, and soybeans."

Weather forecasts show mostly above-average rainfall across Brazil, aiding early soybean development, while Argentina is experiencing wetter conditions, offering relief after recent heat and reducing near-term La Niña yield risks, the firm said.

Chicago wheat futures fell 1.3% to $5.22 a bushel in European afternoon trade Monday, while corn was down 0.8% to $4.37 a bushel. Soybean prices declined 0.8% to $10.68 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES: Coffee prices fell 2.5% to $3.60 a pound, pressured by expectations of ample supply on higher exports from Vietnam and increased production forecasts for Brazil. Meanwhile, the European Parliament approved a one-year delay to the deforestation law known as EUDR, meaning coffee flows won't be affected for the time being.

Cocoa prices dropped 6.4% to $5,883 a ton, as traders anticipate a surplus in the 2025-26 season due to improved supply and weaker demand. High prices last season damped consumption, and analysts expect buyers to remain cautious, keeping prices under pressure in 2026. Sugar slipped 1.5% to 15 cents a pound.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

Ratings actions from Baystreet: http://www.baystreet.ca

(16:55 GMT) Imperial Oil Ltd. Price Target Cut to C$129.00/Share From C$132.00 by BMO Capital Markets

Ratings actions from Baystreet: http://www.baystreet.ca

Crop prices may turn weaker in 2026, with more strong harvests forecast around the world. In a fresh outlook Capital Economics says that it sees grain prices to continue to slide, in part because of expectations that crude oil prices will fall. "With our forecast for oil prices to drift lower, we expect further downward pressure on agriculture prices," says the firm. Meanwhile, strong harvests are forecast in the U.S., EU, and Australia, and China's appetite for western grains isn't seen as supporting that influx of new supply. "Beijing's renewed focus on grain self-sufficiency and feed-efficiency improvements should curb any sustained rebound in import demand," says the firm. CBOT corn falls 0.7%, soybeans slide 0.8%, and wheat is down 1.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

By Kirk Maltais

U.S. corn and soybean export inspections are off from the prior week, according to data from the Department of Agriculture.

In its latest Grain Export Inspection report, the USDA said corn inspections fell to 1.58 million metric tons for the week ended Dec. 11, from 1.74 million tons the previous week. Soybean inspections were 795,661 tons, down from 1.03 million tons the prior week.

Soybean inspections remain well behind the pace of the previous marketing year, the USDA said. Total marketing year inspections for soybeans total 13.7 million tons, which is off 46% from the same time last year. China is the leading destination for U.S. soybeans for the week, totaling 202,043 tons for the week.

Corn inspections are at 22.5 million tons for the marketing year, which is up 69% from the prior marketing year, while wheat inspections for the week totaled 488,025 tons, up from this time last week. For the marketing year, wheat inspections are up 22% from the previous year.

CBOT grain futures are down in morning trade, with most-active soybeans down 0.7%, corn down 0.6% and wheat down 1%.

To see related data, search "USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons" in Dow Jones NewsPlus.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com