North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Key Labor Market Data

Stocks

Summary:

U.S. stock futures fell ahead of key labor data, with investors cautious on AI risks and rate-cut expectations, while markets awaited jobs, retail sales, and central bank decisions.

OPENING CALL

Stock futures fell on Tuesday as concerns around AI continued to weigh on markets and investors turned their focus to key economic data releases.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release delayed November employment data, along with some October measures, at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday.

"Given the Federal Reserve's increased focus on the labor market, today's labor market statistics for October and November may well be market moving , should they fall outside consensus estimates," Danske Bank said.

The latest data are expected to show that unemployment remained largely stable in November, even as monthly payroll gains diminished over the past two months.

"The November jobs report could be the most challenging to interpret this year," EY-Parthenon said. "Extraordinary factors from the government shutdown to sweeping federal workforce restructuring will distort headline figures and mask the true underlying pace of job growth."

Currently, traders are pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed by the end of next year.

"The outcome of today's data could shift those expectations , driving volatility across both currency and bond markets," Exness said.

Investors are also awaiting October retail-sales data, plus preliminary, or "flash," purchasing managers indexes from S&P Global.

Following the Fed's interest rate cut last Wednesday, the European Central Bank and Bank of England announce policy decisions on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday.

Stocks to Watch

Broadcom inched down premarket, following a nearly 18% tumble over the last three trading sessions. That marked the worst three-day stretch for the stock since March 2020.

Ford Motor expects about $19.5 billion in charges as it scales back electric-vehicle ambitions and shifts focus to gas-powered and hybrid vehicles. Shares edged higher in premarket trading.

Lennar Holdings is due to report earnings after markets close.

Navan reported its first set of financial results since going public during the government shutdown, and said its chief financial officer would depart early next year. Shares sank in thin premarket trading

Organogenesis Holdings said it would start a license application for its treatment ReNu following confirmation from the FDA. Shares rose 11%.

RCI Hospitality delayed filing its annual report for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. The stock fell 5% after-hours.

Ready Capital cut its dividend to 1 cent from 12.5 cents. The stock declined 6.9% after the bell.

Teck Resources and Anglo American: Canada approved the merger between its domestic miner Teck and London-listed Anglo American, in a deal that will create one of the world's largest copper producers .

Watch For:

Retail Sales for October; Employment Report for November; Housing Starts for November

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-CoreWeave's Staggering Fall From Market Grace Highlights AI Bubble Fears

-CEOs Are Learning to Live With Trump's Turn to State Capitalism

-This Hollywood Property Mogul Stands to Lose No Matter Who Wins Warner

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar traded steady but stayed near recent lows as investors exercise caution ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

The currency was likely to gradually weaken in 2026 , ANZ said. Geopolitical and policy uncertainties remain and will probably weaken the greenback if they are more U.S.-centric.

The euro remained steady against the dollar, showing little reaction after a weaker-than-expected eurozone purchasing managers' index survey.

Sterling trimmed losses slightly versus the euro after U.K. jobs data showed wage growth exceeded estimates in the three months to October.

The currency could rise if the Bank of England cuts interest rates as expected Thursday but sounds more cautious than anticipated about future cuts, Convera said.

Bonds:

Earlier falls in Treasury yields reversed, with yields trading steady in midday European trade ahead of key labor market data.

The focus in Treasurys was on the steepening yield curve as further Fed rate cuts were seen next year, Saxo said.

Energy:

Oil prices fell in early trading, extending the previous session's losses as negotiations to end the war in Ukraine progressed.

Metals:

Gold prices slipped in early trading as investors book profits ahead of key U.S. data that could provide cues on the Fed's policy path next year .

Copper

Copper edged lower. While concerns over the global economy remain, renewed supply disruptions this year and robust demand have boosted sentiment , ANZ said.

Iron

Iron ore was higher in early trading. With macroeconomic events largely priced in, iron ore trading has shifted back toward fundamentals , Nanhua Futures said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Breach at South Korea's Equivalent of Amazon Exposed Data of Almost Every Adult

SEOUL-The alleged perpetrator had improper access to virtually every South Korean adult's personal information: names, phone numbers and even the keycode to enter residential buildings.

It was one of the biggest data breaches of recent years and it has sent the company it targeted-Coupang, South Korea's equivalent of Amazon-reeling, generating lawsuits, government investigation and calls to toughen penalties against such leaks.

CoreWeave's Staggering Fall From Market Grace Highlights AI Bubble Fears

CoreWeave, the largest of a new breed of companies driving the artificial-intelligence boom, has watched $33 billion of value vaporize in six weeks.

The share-price plunge of 46% comes as investors worry about a possible AI bubble, the fallout from a failed merger and public criticism from high-profile short seller Jim Chanos, known for predicting the collapse of Enron.

CEOs Are Learning to Live With Trump's Turn to State Capitalism

Last week Nvidia finally got permission to sell one its most advanced semiconductor chips to China. The catch: The federal government will take 25% of the revenue from those sales.

The Nvidia deal says something important about the relationship between business and government under President Trump. His regular intrusions into the boardroom-taking equity stakes, revenue slices or a "golden share"; prodding companies to lower prices or sell drugs through a federal website-are a sort of state capitalism, in which the state doesn't necessarily own companies, but uses its substantial leverage to steer their behavior.

Kering Gets $690 Million for Stake in Fifth Avenue Property

Gucci owner Kering will receive $690 million for a majority stake in a Fifth Avenue property in a deal with private-equity group Ardian, as the luxury group continues to unload assets to bolster its finances.

The two French companies said Tuesday that Kering would retain a 40% stake in the property and contribute the remaining 60% to a newly created joint venture with Ardian. The property on New York City's Fifth Avenue houses luxury retail spaces totaling 115,000 square feet, they added.

Eurozone Business Activity Growth Slows

Business activity in Europe and parts of Asia continued to grow as 2025 drew to a close, but at a slower pace as higher barriers to trade and uncertainty about relations between major powers took their toll.

The eurozone's composite purchasing managers index-based on survey responses from around 5,000 manufacturers and service providers-fell to 51.9 in December from 52.8 a month prior, data firm S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank said Tuesday.

U.K. Unemployment Rises to Pandemic-Era Highs

U.K. joblessness climbed in the three months through October as signs of a softening labor market gathered pace, raising expectations that the Bank of England will cut its benchmark interest rate at its final meeting of the year this week.

The headline rate of unemployment crept up to 5.1% in August-October, from 5.0% in the three months through September, Britain's Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. That matched expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, last being higher in January 2021 at the height of pandemic-era work stoppages.

Two Fed officials who rarely agree both say inflation will not be a problem going forward

Two top Federal Reserve officials - one a more populist outsider and the other at the ideological center at the central bank - find themselves in agreement on at least one issue. Higher inflation is not going to be a problem for the economy in the coming months, they say.

New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a career economist at the central bank, and Stephen Miran, who is a close adviser to President Donald Trump, himself a fierce critic of Powell, both indicated this week that they're confident inflation will cool in coming months. Miran was Trump's pick for a several-month stint on the Fed board of governors while the president and his top advisers complete a search for a replacement for Powell, whose term as chair ends in May.

Trump's Renovation Spree Is Spreading to More Washington Landmarks

WASHINGTON-President Trump has been on a renovation spree since moving back into the White House, but his penchant for remodeling is leading to an escalating legal feud with his neighbors.

The former real-estate developer started by paving over the grass in the Rose Garden to accommodate women in high heels, marbling the Lincoln Bedroom bathroom and tearing down the East Wing to build a ballroom.

U.S. Strikes Three Alleged Drug Boats, Killing Eight

The U.S. military said it carried out strikes on three boats it suspected of drug smuggling in the Eastern Pacific on Monday, killing eight men, the latest attacks in Washington's campaign against such vessels.

Source: morningstar

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