Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley upgraded MP Materials to Overweight, citing the company’s rising strategic importance in the U.S. push to build a domestic rare-earth supply chain.
The bank lifted its price target to $71 from $68.5.
Shares in the rare earths company rose nearly 4% in premarket trading Friday.
Analyst Carlos De Alba argues that “China’s one-year pause on rare earth restrictions does not solve critical mineral/REE dependency issues,” and sees MP as a key beneficiary as Western governments accelerate efforts to diversify supply.
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has taken an increasingly direct role, with De Alba calling the DoD’s partnership with MP a “historic deal” that materially reduces business-model risk.
The company is developing a fully domestic rare earth mine-to-magnet supply chain in the U.S., with plans to begin commercial production of permanent magnets by the end of 2025, targeting electric vehicles, offshore wind turbines, and what the analysts describe as the “long-term attractive humanoids market.”
MP’s downstream magnet capacity is expected to reach 7kt and could be syndicated with the DoD to end-users as magnet buyers diversify away from China.
De Alba highlights the latest joint venture between the DoD, MP and Saudi miner Ma’aden as a source of operational flexibility with “zero capital costs” for MP.
The refinery could become an additional source of heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, though the bank does not include output from the Saudi project in its base-case estimates, leaving room for potential upside.
Supply-chain frictions remain a key backdrop. Permanent magnets are still under Chinese export restrictions, and the export-license process requires detailed product, customer, and facility information.
De Alba flags execution as the main risk to the call. MP must complete several projects through 2028, including heavy rare-earth separation, an Apple-linked recycling circuit, and expansions at its Independence and 10X magnetics facilities.
The analyst also points to challenges in securing enough heavy rare earths to fully supply the 10X plant.








