Meituan's Margins Likely to Remain Under Pressure Next Year — Market Talk

Meituan's food delivery operating loss is likely to narrow in 2026, according to Daiwa analysts John Choi and Robin Leung in a research note. Food delivery operating loss per order is expected to rise in 4Q, resulting in a segment loss of around 13 billon yuan, the analysts say. Even if competitive intensity remains unchanged, Daiwa expects a gradual sequential improvement in 1Q and 2Q of 2026, as Meituan's focus will shift towards high-value orders, they note. Daiwa keeps a buy rating, but cuts the target to HK$140.00 from HK$170.00 as the analysts factor in the higher-than-expected consumer incentives. Shares at 1.1% lower at HK$101.40. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

Q3 2025 saw 2% revenue growth to RMB 95.5B, but higher costs and intense competition led to a RMB 16B adjusted net loss. User and merchant engagement, AI investment, and new initiatives like Keeta's overseas expansion remain strong, with long-term profitability expected as competition rationalizes.

Based on Meituan Class B [3690] Q3 2025 Audio Transcript — Nov. 28 2025

Q3 2025 saw 2% revenue growth to RMB 95.5B, but higher costs and intense competition led to a RMB 16B adjusted net loss. User and merchant engagement, AI investment, and new initiatives like Keeta's overseas expansion remain strong, with long-term profitability expected as competition rationalizes.

Based on Meituan Class B [3690] Q3 2025 Audio Transcript — Nov. 28 2025

Q3 2025 saw 2% revenue growth to RMB 95.5B, but higher costs and intense competition led to a RMB 16B adjusted net loss. User and merchant engagement, AI investment, and new initiatives like Keeta's overseas expansion remain strong, with long-term profitability expected as competition rationalizes.

Based on Meituan Class B [3690] Q3 2025 Audio Transcript — Nov. 28 2025

Q3 2025 saw 2% revenue growth to RMB 95.5B, but higher costs and intense competition led to a RMB 16B adjusted net loss. User and merchant engagement, AI investment, and new initiatives like Keeta's overseas expansion remain strong, with long-term profitability expected as competition rationalizes.

Based on Meituan Class B [3690] Q3 2025 Audio Transcript — Nov. 28 2025

By Tracy Qu

Chinese food-delivery giant Meituan swung into the red for the first time in nearly three years, buckling under the costs of a brutal price war.

The Beijing-based company on Friday reported a third-quarter net loss of 18.63 billion yuan, equivalent to $2.63 billion, compared with profit of 12.86 billion yuan a year earlier. Revenue rose 2.0% to 95.49 billion yuan.

Both figures fell short of expectations. Analysts had predicted a net loss of about 15.68 billion yuan on revenue of 97.69 billion yuan, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

"Market competition has remained overheated," Meituan said in its earnings report. Overseas expansion also dragged on profit, it said. That led the company to expect continued operating losses in the fourth quarter for its core local commerce segment and business overall.

Meituan, a longtime leader in China's food-delivery industry, has been under increasing pressure from rivals like Alibaba Group and e-commerce platform JD.com.

The Chinese shopping-and-delivery platform has been aggressively offering discounts to attract customers, a move seen as necessary to defend its market share. Soft Chinese demand has only fueled the competition with JD.com and Alibaba's Ele.me. In the latest quarter, JD.com's profit slumped 55%, partly due to its costly push into food delivery. Alibaba this week reported a halving in profit due to heavy spending on food delivery and artificial intelligence.

Meituan said Friday that "continuous intensified competition in food delivery" caused its core local commerce segment to swing to an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan in the third quarter, with revenue falling 2.8% from the previous year.

As for the new initiatives business, the company said operating loss widened to 1.3 billion yuan due to its overseas push, although revenue increased 16%.

The price war has drawn the ire of Beijing, with China's top market regulator earlier this year calling for the companies to engage in "rational" competition.

Analysts at Jefferies said Chinese e-commerce companies' quick-commerce losses likely peaked in the September quarter, suggesting that the hit to earnings could start to moderate. The key period to watch is the June quarter next year, as unit economics tend to be better following the Lunar New Year in the first quarter, they wrote in a report this week.

Sentiment remains subdued for now as Meituan and other platforms continue to grapple with a relatively weak Chinese economy, which has led to muted consumer spending. Shares in the Hong Kong-listed company have lost about one-third of their value this year, compared with the benchmark Hang Seng Index's nearly 30% gain over the same period.

Write to Tracy Qu at tracy.qu@wsj.com