Shares of Qiagen NV (NYSE:QGEN) surged 16% this week after a Bloomberg report on Tuesday said the company was exploring a potential sale amid renewed interest from several global strategic buyers. The news sparked an immediate rally in the stock, as investors priced in a long-awaited consolidation.
Analysts across Wall Street weighed in on the potential sale of the mid-cap diagnostics firm, following years of speculation about its future.
Following the news, JPMorgan analyst Casey Woodring noted that "QGEN’s profile shares similarities with HOLX’s," referencing Hologic Inc (NASDAQ:HOLX), a women’s health specialist that recently agreed to a private equity buyout. That deal carried a 46% premium over Hologic’s unaffected share price, highlighting the high value placed on diagnostic platforms with stable, recurring cash flows
Woodring suggested that Danaher Corporation (NYSE:DHR) and Agilent Technologies Inc (NYSE:A) screen as the most likely suitors due to their flexibility in pursuing large-scale transactions.
Elsewhere, Wolfe Research analyst Doug Schenkel indicated that a deal now seems more feasible as the company is "in the midst of a CEO change." The departure of Thierry Bernard is viewed by many as the removal of a primary roadblock to a successful transaction.
A leadership transition is particularly notable given the company’s history, specifically the failed 2020 takeover attempt by Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (NYSE:TMO). That $11.5 billion deal collapsed after activist investors argued the bid significantly undervalued Qiagen’s long-term growth potential during the pandemic.
In its Tuesday article, Bloomberg reported that the company is working with advisers as its supervisory board fields preliminary interest from suitors, including several U.S. strategics. Jefferies analyst Tycho Peterson highlighted the company’s differentiated portfolio in digital PCR and latent TB testing as a driver for a premium valuation.
Peterson noted that his sum-of-the-parts analysis finds support for a "takeout price around $60/share," representing roughly 16x EBITDA. He further suggested that if multiple bidders emerge, a deal in the "low- to mid-60s (17x EBITDA) is not off the table."
Despite the jump in share price, some analysts remain skeptical about the likelihood of a transaction successfully crossing the finish line. UBS analyst Dan Leonard maintained a Neutral rating, citing a valuation spread between European peers and U.S.-listed companies as a primary hurdle.
"Assessing the odds that this latest report materializes into something is challenging," Leonard commented, pointing to the gap between growth aspirations and performance. Investors remain focused on whether a formal offer will materialize or if this will be another unfulfilled round of speculation.
The company has a track record of exploring combinations, including past discussions with French rival BioMerieux that ultimately failed to produce a merger. These repeated cycles of interest have left some traders wary of "deal fatigue" surrounding the German diagnostics firm.
Furthermore, the competitive landscape is shifting as major players like Roche prepare to enter the latent tuberculosis testing market. This looming competition may increase the pressure on Qiagen’s board to secure a favorable exit while it still maintains a dominant market share.
