Li Ning's Sales Likely to Gradually Improve in 2026 — Market Talk

Li Ning is unlikely to stage a 4Q turnaround after the sportswear company reported lackluster 3Q operating data, Nomura analyst Jizhou Dong says in a note. Dong expects the company's Olympics-themed products, set for release in 4Q ahead of the 2026 Winter Olympics, won't drive an immediate sales recovery and could even weigh on 2H margins due to increased marketing expenses. Nomura trims its 2025-2027 sales and earnings forecasts by 1% and 3%-4%, respectively. Nomura cuts its 2025-2027 sales and earnings forecasts by 1% and 3%-4%, respectively. It maintains a neutral rating, citing continued sales and margin weakness, with low expectations already priced in. The investment bank lowers its target price to HK$19.80 from HK$20.70. Shares are last at HK$17.55. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

Li Ning's risk-reward profile now looks attractive, Daiwa Capital Markets analysts say in a report. They cite the combination of low market expectations, improving operational fundamentals and possible catalysts such as coming major sports events for the Chinese sportswear company. Daiwa sees potential for basketball to regain popularity in 2026, partly supported by the NBA's return to China after a six-year absence. Li Ning's reinstatement as a sponsor for the Chinese Olympic Committee also looks significant, with the Winter Olympics in Italy scheduled to take place in February 2026. Daiwa upgrades its rating on the stock to buy from hold and raises its target price to HK$24.00 from HK$20.00. Shares are 4.0% higher at HK$18.10. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

Li Ning's risk-reward profile now looks attractive, Daiwa Capital Markets analysts say in a report. They cite the combination of low market expectations, improving operational fundamentals and possible catalysts such as coming major sports events for the Chinese sportswear company. Daiwa sees potential for basketball to regain popularity in 2026, partly supported by the NBA's return to China after a six-year absence. Li Ning's reinstatement as a sponsor for the Chinese Olympic Committee also looks significant, with the Winter Olympics in Italy scheduled to take place in February 2026. Daiwa upgrades its rating on the stock to buy from hold and raises its target price to HK$24.00 from HK$20.00. Shares are 4.0% higher at HK$18.10. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

Li Ning could continue to lose market share through 2026 before stabilizing in 2027 as its marketing investments start yielding results, Morningstar's Ivan Su says in a note. While Li Ning's 1H margins were more resilient than expected, Su reckons 2H could be affected by heavier discounting and higher marketing expenses related to the Chinese Olympics committee. He leaves his 2025-2026 forecasts largely unchanged, noting that Li Ning has retained its guidance for flat revenue and high-single-digit net margin in 2025 given weaker July and August sales. Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate at HK$29.00. Shares closed Monday at HK$20.28. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

Li Ning could continue to lose market share through 2026 before stabilizing in 2027 as its marketing investments start yielding results, Morningstar's Ivan Su says in a note. While Li Ning's 1H margins were more resilient than expected, Su reckons 2H could be affected by heavier discounting and higher marketing expenses related to the Chinese Olympics committee. He leaves his 2025-2026 forecasts largely unchanged, noting that Li Ning has retained its guidance for flat revenue and high-single-digit net margin in 2025 given weaker July and August sales. Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate at HK$29.00. Shares closed Monday at HK$20.28. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

• The Pinault family--which owns a 29% stake in sports brand Puma through its investment company Artemis--is working with advisers to consider options including a potential sale of the German group, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.
• The family has reached out to potential bidders including Anta Sports Products and Li Ning, sportswear firms in the U.S. and sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, according to Bloomberg.
• When approached for comment by Bloomberg, a spokesperson for Puma declined to comment, while representatives for Artemis, Anta and Li Ning didn't respond.
• Shares closed 16% higher at 21.73 euros.

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Write to Andrea Figueras at andrea.figueras@wsj.com