Krispy Kreme on Pace for Lowest Close Since October 2025 — Data Talk

Let’s dig into the relative performance of Krispy Kreme and its peers as we unravel the now-completed Q3 traditional fast food earnings season.

Traditional fast-food restaurants are renowned for their speed and convenience, boasting menus filled with familiar and budget-friendly items. Their reputations for on-the-go consumption make them favored destinations for individuals and families needing a quick meal. This class of restaurants, however, is fighting the perception that their meals are unhealthy and made with inferior ingredients, a battle that's especially relevant today given the consumers increasing focus on health and wellness.

The 13 traditional fast food stocks we track reported a satisfactory Q3. As a group, revenues were in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 8.3% on average since the latest earnings results.

Krispy Kreme

Famous for its Original Glazed doughnuts and parent company of Insomnia Cookies, Krispy Kreme is one of the most beloved and well-known fast-food chains in the world.

Krispy Kreme reported revenues of $375.3 million, down 1.2% year on year. This print fell short of analysts’ expectations by 0.8%, but it was still a very strong quarter for the company with a beat of analysts’ EPS and EBITDA estimates.

“Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025 and beyond, we expect further improvement in adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow. We also anticipate progress on our refranchising agenda and continued profitable expansion with key customers in the U.S., all while reducing capital spending and paying down debt,” said Krispy Kreme CEO Josh Charlesworth.

Unsurprisingly, the stock is down 8.5% since reporting and currently trades at $3.45.

Best Q3: Dutch Bros

Started in 1992 by two brothers as a single pushcart, Dutch Bros is a dynamic coffee chain that’s captured the hearts of coffee enthusiasts across the United States.

Dutch Bros reported revenues of $423.6 million, up 25.2% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 2.3%. The business had an exceptional quarter with a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Dutch Bros pulled off the fastest revenue growth among its peers. The market seems happy with the results as the stock is up 8.2% since reporting. It currently trades at $60.82.

Weakest Q3: Papa John's

Founded by the eclectic John “Papa John” Schnatter, Papa John’s is a globally recognized pizza delivery and carryout chain known for “better ingredients” and “better pizza”.

Papa John's reported revenues of $508.2 million, flat year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 2.9%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly and a miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

As expected, the stock is down 9% since the results and currently trades at $37.56.

Read our full analysis of Papa John’s results here.

El Pollo Loco

With a name that translates into ‘The Crazy Chicken’, El Pollo Loco is a fast food chain known for its citrus-marinated, fire-grilled chicken recipe that hails from the coastal town of Sinaloa, Mexico.

El Pollo Loco reported revenues of $121.5 million, flat year on year. This number missed analysts’ expectations by 2%. Taking a step back, it was a satisfactory quarter as it also recorded an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates but a miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

The stock is up 21% since reporting and currently trades at $10.96.

Read our full, actionable report on El Pollo Loco here, it’s free.

Starbucks

Started by three friends in Seattle’s historic Pike Place Market, Starbucks is a globally-renowned coffeehouse chain that offers a wide selection of high-quality coffee, beverages, and food items.

Starbucks reported revenues of $9.57 billion, up 5.5% year on year. This result topped analysts’ expectations by 2.6%. It was a strong quarter as it also produced an impressive beat of analysts’ revenue estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates.

The stock is up 14.5% since reporting and currently trades at $96.36.

Read our full, actionable report on Starbucks here, it’s free.

Wrapping up Q3 earnings, we look at the numbers and key takeaways for the traditional fast food stocks, including Wendy's and its peers.

Traditional fast-food restaurants are renowned for their speed and convenience, boasting menus filled with familiar and budget-friendly items. Their reputations for on-the-go consumption make them favored destinations for individuals and families needing a quick meal. This class of restaurants, however, is fighting the perception that their meals are unhealthy and made with inferior ingredients, a battle that's especially relevant today given the consumers increasing focus on health and wellness.

The 13 traditional fast food stocks we track reported a satisfactory Q3. As a group, revenues were in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 8.3% on average since the latest earnings results.

Wendy's

Founded by Dave Thomas in 1969, Wendy’s is a renowned fast-food chain known for its fresh, never-frozen beef burgers, flavorful menu options, and commitment to quality.

Wendy's reported revenues of $549.5 million, down 3% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 3.1%. Overall, it was an exceptional quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

"Third quarter results were in line with our expectations, reflecting continued strength in our international business with 8.6% systemwide sales growth, the addition of 54 new restaurants globally and adjusted EBITDA growth," said Ken Cook, Interim CEO.

Wendy's scored the biggest analyst estimates beat of the whole group. Investor expectations, however, were likely higher than Wall Street’s published projections, leaving some wishing for even better results (analysts’ consensus estimates are those published by big banks and advisory firms, not the investors who make buy and sell decisions). The stock is down 4% since reporting and currently trades at $8.47.

Best Q3: Dutch Bros

Started in 1992 by two brothers as a single pushcart, Dutch Bros is a dynamic coffee chain that’s captured the hearts of coffee enthusiasts across the United States.

Dutch Bros reported revenues of $423.6 million, up 25.2% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 2.3%. The business had an exceptional quarter with a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Dutch Bros achieved the fastest revenue growth among its peers. The market seems happy with the results as the stock is up 8.2% since reporting. It currently trades at $60.82.

Weakest Q3: Papa John's

Founded by the eclectic John “Papa John” Schnatter, Papa John’s is a globally recognized pizza delivery and carryout chain known for “better ingredients” and “better pizza”.

Papa John's reported revenues of $508.2 million, flat year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 2.9%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly and a miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

As expected, the stock is down 9% since the results and currently trades at $37.56.

Read our full analysis of Papa John’s results here.

Krispy Kreme

Famous for its Original Glazed doughnuts and parent company of Insomnia Cookies, Krispy Kreme is one of the most beloved and well-known fast-food chains in the world.

Krispy Kreme reported revenues of $375.3 million, down 1.2% year on year. This result came in 0.8% below analysts' expectations. In spite of that, it was a very strong quarter as it recorded a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

The stock is down 8.5% since reporting and currently trades at $3.45.

Read our full, actionable report on Krispy Kreme here, it’s free.

Yum! Brands

Spun off as an independent company from PepsiCo, Yum! Brands is a multinational corporation that owns KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and The Habit Burger Grill.

Yum! Brands reported revenues of $1.98 billion, up 8.4% year on year. This print lagged analysts' expectations by 1.2%. Zooming out, it was a mixed quarter as it also recorded an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates but a slight miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

The stock is up 10.1% since reporting and currently trades at $153.51.

Read our full, actionable report on Yum! Brands here, it’s free.

What Happened?

A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after analysts at Bernstein highlighted a potential recovery for the sector in 2026. 

After a challenging 2025 marked by weakened consumer confidence, the firm anticipates a gradual traffic recovery. Several factors could stimulate consumer demand, including an upcoming Tax Bill and the U.S.-hosted Soccer World Cup, with effects potentially starting in the spring. This optimistic outlook was supported by restaurant valuations hitting 10-year lows, suggesting significant upside if consumer spending data improves. Following a period where households cut back on dining out due to inflation, larger tax rebate checks are also seen as a potential catalyst for a rebound in casual dining.

The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.

Among others, the following stocks were impacted:

• Sit-Down Dining company Darden jumped 3.8%. Is now the time to buy Darden? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Modern Fast Food company CAVA jumped 6.7%. Is now the time to buy CAVA? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Modern Fast Food company Shake Shack jumped 9.1%. Is now the time to buy Shake Shack? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Traditional Fast Food company Krispy Kreme jumped 5.3%. Is now the time to buy Krispy Kreme? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Sit-Down Dining company Cracker Barrel jumped 8.5%. Is now the time to buy Cracker Barrel? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Zooming In On Shake Shack (SHAK)

Shake Shack’s shares are very volatile and have had 26 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 21 days ago when the stock dropped 1.8% on the news that a weak November jobs report raised concerns about consumer spending, which could impact restaurant sales. 

The report revealed that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a three-year high of 4.6%, its highest level since 2021. This data created caution among traders, who worried that a weaker job market might lead consumers to cut back on discretionary purchases, such as dining out. Reflecting these broader concerns, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller companies, also declined. The restaurant sector as a whole had already faced pressures from higher costs and subdued customer traffic. Adding to the day's news, analysts at Jefferies maintained a "Hold" rating on the company's shares.

Shake Shack is up 7.4% since the beginning of the year, but at $89.68 per share, it is still trading 36.9% below its 52-week high of $142.03 from July 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Shake Shack’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,032.

Wrapping up Q3 earnings, we look at the numbers and key takeaways for the traditional fast food stocks, including El Pollo Loco and its peers.

Traditional fast-food restaurants are renowned for their speed and convenience, boasting menus filled with familiar and budget-friendly items. Their reputations for on-the-go consumption make them favored destinations for individuals and families needing a quick meal. This class of restaurants, however, is fighting the perception that their meals are unhealthy and made with inferior ingredients, a battle that's especially relevant today given the consumers increasing focus on health and wellness.

The 13 traditional fast food stocks we track reported a satisfactory Q3. As a group, revenues were in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 8.2% on average since the latest earnings results.

El Pollo Loco

With a name that translates into ‘The Crazy Chicken’, El Pollo Loco is a fast food chain known for its citrus-marinated, fire-grilled chicken recipe that hails from the coastal town of Sinaloa, Mexico.

El Pollo Loco reported revenues of $121.5 million, flat year on year. This print fell short of analysts’ expectations by 2%, but it was still a satisfactory quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates but a miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Liz Williams, Chief Executive Officer of El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., stated, “Our third quarter results demonstrated the progress we are making across all aspects of our business. While our comparable store sales experienced a small decline, we are particularly pleased with our positive traffic growth during the quarter as we implemented targeted value and innovations that not only drove restaurant visits but also enhanced our brand equity. Our ongoing focus on operational excellence allowed us to deliver margin expansion at both the restaurant and corporate level. Our unit growth momentum continued with the opening of our 500th El Pollo Loco restaurant, and as we are building a pipeline that will almost double unit openings next year. As we look ahead, we remain laser-focused on executing against our five strategic pillars and continuing on our path of being the nation’s favorite fire-grilled chicken restaurant.”

Interestingly, the stock is up 18.6% since reporting and currently trades at $10.73.

Best Q3: Dutch Bros

Started in 1992 by two brothers as a single pushcart, Dutch Bros is a dynamic coffee chain that’s captured the hearts of coffee enthusiasts across the United States.

Dutch Bros reported revenues of $423.6 million, up 25.2% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 2.3%. The business had an exceptional quarter with a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Dutch Bros delivered the fastest revenue growth among its peers. The market seems happy with the results as the stock is up 14% since reporting. It currently trades at $64.07.

Weakest Q3: Papa John's

Founded by the eclectic John “Papa John” Schnatter, Papa John’s is a globally recognized pizza delivery and carryout chain known for “better ingredients” and “better pizza”.

Papa John's reported revenues of $508.2 million, flat year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 2.9%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly and a miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

As expected, the stock is down 4.7% since the results and currently trades at $39.30.

Read our full analysis of Papa John’s results here.

Krispy Kreme

Famous for its Original Glazed doughnuts and parent company of Insomnia Cookies, Krispy Kreme is one of the most beloved and well-known fast-food chains in the world.

Krispy Kreme reported revenues of $375.3 million, down 1.2% year on year. This print came in 0.8% below analysts' expectations. Zooming out, it was actually a very strong quarter as it put up a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

The stock is up 12.6% since reporting and currently trades at $4.24.

Read our full, actionable report on Krispy Kreme here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Wendy's

Founded by Dave Thomas in 1969, Wendy’s is a renowned fast-food chain known for its fresh, never-frozen beef burgers, flavorful menu options, and commitment to quality.

Wendy's reported revenues of $549.5 million, down 3% year on year. This number beat analysts’ expectations by 3.1%. It was an exceptional quarter as it also produced an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Wendy's scored the biggest analyst estimates beat among its peers. The stock is down 6.2% since reporting and currently trades at $8.28.

Read our full, actionable report on Wendy's here, it’s free for active Edge members.