Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q3 Earnings?

As the Q3 earnings season wraps, let’s dig into this quarter’s best and worst performers in the property & casualty insurance industry, including Skyward Specialty Insurance and its peers.

Property & Casualty (P&C) insurers protect individuals and businesses against financial loss from damage to property or from legal liability. This is a cyclical industry, and the sector benefits when there is 'hard market', characterized by strong premium rate increases that outpace loss and cost inflation, resulting in robust underwriting margins. The opposite is true in a 'soft market'. Interest rates also matter, as they determine the yields earned on fixed-income portfolios. On the other hand, P&C insurers face a major secular headwind from the increasing frequency and severity of catastrophe losses due to climate change. Furthermore, the liability side of the business is pressured by 'social inflation'—the trend of rising litigation costs and larger jury awards.

The 33 property & casualty insurance stocks we track reported a strong Q3. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 14.7%.

Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 6.2% on average since the latest earnings results.

Skyward Specialty Insurance

Founded in 2006 to serve markets where standard insurance coverage falls short, Skyward Specialty Insurance provides customized commercial property, casualty, and health insurance solutions for underserved or specialized market niches.

Skyward Specialty Insurance reported revenues of $382.5 million, up 27.1% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 14.3%. Overall, it was a stunning quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts’ net premiums earned estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Skyward Specialty Chairman and CEO Andrew Robinson commented, “Our third quarter results were exceptional, extending our track record of profitable growth and double-digit returns. Gross written premiums grew more than 50%, we achieved a Company-best combined ratio of 89.2% and annualized return on equity of 19.3%. Five of our nine divisions grew by more than 25% in the quarter, led by the agriculture and credit (re)insurance division. These results underscore the strength and discipline of our “Rule Our Niche” strategy and the benefits of our intentionally diversified portfolio, much of which is less exposed to P&C market cycles.

Interestingly, the stock is up 11.1% since reporting and currently trades at $51.73.

Read why we think that Skyward Specialty Insurance is one of the best property & casualty insurance stocks, our full report is free.

Best Q3: Root

Pioneering a data-driven approach that rewards good driving habits, Root is a technology-driven auto insurance company that uses mobile apps to acquire customers and data science to price policies based on individual driving behavior.

Root reported revenues of $387.8 million, up 26.9% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 4.5%. The business had an incredible quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ net premiums earned estimates.

Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 17.2% since reporting. It currently trades at $74.10.

Weakest Q3: Progressive

Starting as a small auto insurance company in 1937 with a pioneering focus on high-risk drivers, Progressive is a major auto, property, and commercial insurance provider that offers policies through independent agents, online platforms, and over the phone.

Progressive reported revenues of $22.51 billion, up 14.2% year on year, in line with analysts’ expectations. It was a softer quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates and a miss of analysts’ book value per share estimates.

As expected, the stock is down 5.4% since the results and currently trades at $227.52.

Read our full analysis of Progressive’s results here.

Kinsale Capital Group

Founded in 2009 during the aftermath of the financial crisis when many insurers were retreating from riskier markets, Kinsale Capital Group is an insurance company that specializes in writing policies for hard-to-place, unusual, or high-risk businesses that standard insurers typically avoid.

Kinsale Capital Group reported revenues of $497.5 million, up 19% year on year. This result beat analysts’ expectations by 10.9%. Overall, it was a strong quarter as it also produced an impressive beat of analysts’ net premiums earned estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

The stock is down 12.5% since reporting and currently trades at $396.89.

Read our full, actionable report on Kinsale Capital Group here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Cincinnati Financial

Founded in 1950 by independent insurance agents seeking stable market options for their clients, Cincinnati Financial provides property casualty insurance, life insurance, and related financial services through independent agencies across 46 states.

Cincinnati Financial reported revenues of $2.87 billion, up 12.1% year on year. This print was in line with analysts’ expectations. It was an exceptional quarter as it also put up an impressive beat of analysts’ book value per share estimates and a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.

The stock is up 5.3% since reporting and currently trades at $165.93.

Read our full, actionable report on Cincinnati Financial here, it’s free for active Edge members.

What Happened?

Shares of specialty insurance provider Kinsale Capital Group jumped 4.4% in the afternoon session after a director disclosed significant open-market purchases of company stock, signaling strong insider confidence. 

According to a filing, director Gregory Share reported buying shares on December 15, 2025. After the transactions, the entity through which the shares were purchased held 32,000 shares of Kinsale common stock.The stock's rise was also supported by a broader market rally after key inflation data came in cooler than expected. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than economists had forecast, causing major indexes to surge. 

Adding to the positive sentiment was significant activity in the specialty insurance sector. Howard Hughes Holdings, backed by billionaire Bill Ackman, entered an agreement to acquire specialty insurer Vantage Group for approximately $2.1 billion. This deal highlighted a trend of investors viewing well-positioned property and casualty platforms as attractive.

After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $394.02, up 4.2% from previous close.

What Is The Market Telling Us

Kinsale Capital Group’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 11 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 6 days ago when the stock gained 1% on the news that the company announced its board of directors authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program. 

This new authorization followed the completion of a previously announced $100 million share repurchase program. Share buybacks can indicate that a company's leadership believes its stock is a good value. By purchasing its own shares from the open market, a company reduces the total number of shares outstanding, which can increase the value of the remaining shares. The company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Michael P. Kehoe, stated that the announcement reflected confidence in Kinsale's future and the value management saw in the stock.

Kinsale Capital Group is down 13.2% since the beginning of the year, and at $394.02 per share, it is trading 21.5% below its 52-week high of $501.97 from April 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Kinsale Capital Group’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,599.

What Happened?

Shares of specialty insurance provider Kinsale Capital Group jumped 1% in the morning session after the company announced its board of directors authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program. 

This new authorization followed the completion of a previously announced $100 million share repurchase program. Share buybacks can indicate that a company's leadership believes its stock is a good value. By purchasing its own shares from the open market, a company reduces the total number of shares outstanding, which can increase the value of the remaining shares. The company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Michael P. Kehoe, stated that the announcement reflected confidence in Kinsale's future and the value management saw in the stock.

After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $388.30, up 0% from previous close.

Is now the time to buy Kinsale Capital Group? Access our full analysis report here.

What Is The Market Telling Us

Kinsale Capital Group’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 11 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 21 days ago when the stock gained 4.4% on the news that comments from a key Federal Reserve official hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the near future. 

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated he sees "room for a further adjustment in the near term" to U.S. monetary policy, signaling to investors that a rate cut could be forthcoming. Speaking at a conference, Williams noted that policy is currently "modestly restrictive" and could be moved closer to a neutral stance. The market reacted swiftly to the news, as lower interest rates have been a primary driver of stock market gains. Following the remarks, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut rose significantly, according to CME's FedWatch tool. For financial companies, lower rates can increase the value of their large bond portfolios and stimulate broader economic activity.

Kinsale Capital Group is down 14.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $388.30 per share, it is trading 23.4% below its 52-week high of $506.88 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Kinsale Capital Group’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,619.