Japan’s SBI Holdings to launch yen-pegged stablecoin with Startale

Bitcoin risks a further drop toward the $70,000 area if the Bank of Japan follows through with an expected interest-rate rise on Dec. 19, analysts focused on macro forces warned.

According to multiple macro-focused voices, the move could sap global liquidity and put fresh downward pressure on risk assets, with some traders already bracing for a sharp pullback.

Japan’s policy shift matters because higher rates tend to strengthen the yen and raise the cost of borrowing. When that happens, traders who previously borrowed cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere are often forced to unwind those positions.

That process can pull money out of global markets in a short period of time, and Bitcoin has often felt that impact as investors cut exposure during risk-off stretches.

BOJ Tightening Drains Global Liquidity

According to AndrewBTC, every BOJ hike since 2024 has coincided with Bitcoin drawdowns of more than 20%. Based on reports, the analyst pointed to declines of roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.

Traders are not only watching central bank calendars. Bitcoin’s daily chart also flashed a classic bear flag formation after a steep fall from the $105,000–$110,000 area in November.

US-listed spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded one month of consecutive net inflows since their November 13 debut, setting them apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs that experienced billions in outflows over the same period.

The milestone marks a turning point for XRP, which was excluded from traditional investment vehicles for years due to regulatory uncertainty surrounding Ripple’s legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Now, with spot ETFs lifting that barrier, institutional capital is flowing into the asset at a pace that has surprised even bullish observers.

A Stark Contrast With BTC and ETH

According to SoSoValue data, XRP spot ETFs have attracted fresh capital every trading session since launch, lifting cumulative net inflows to approximately $990.9 million as of December 12. Total net assets across the five products climbed to about $1.18 billion, with no single day of net redemptions recorded.

The consistency stands out in a market where even the largest crypto ETFs have struggled to maintain steady momentum. Over the same 30-day window, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3.39 billion in net outflows, including a single-day withdrawal of roughly $903 million on November 20. Ethereum ETFs followed a similar pattern, posting about $1.26 billion in net outflows.

The divergence was most pronounced on December 1. On that day, XRP ETFs brought in $89.65 million while Bitcoin ETFs gained just $8.48 million—roughly one-tenth of XRP’s figure. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, recorded more than $79 million in net outflows.

December trading has further highlighted the contrast. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded four negative flow days compared to eight positive days, while Ethereum ETFs displayed similar volatility with five negative days and seven positive days through December 12. XRP ETFs maintained positive flows throughout.

Second-Fastest to $1 Billion

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse noted that XRP has become one of the fastest spot crypto ETFs to reach $1 billion in assets under management in the US, trailing only Ethereum.

Garlinghouse also emphasized that longevity, stability, and community strength are increasingly essential themes for these new “off-chain crypto investors.”

CME Expands Derivatives Infrastructure

CME Group announced the launch of Spot-Quoted XRP and SOL futures on December 15, further expanding institutional access to XRP.

The existing Spot-Quoted Bitcoin and Ether futures have experienced substantial growth, with December average daily volume reaching 35,300 contracts and a record trade day of 60,700 combined contracts on November 24.

Price Lags Behind as Accumulation Signals Build

Market analysts suggest that the uninterrupted inflow pattern indicates that XRP ETFs are being used as structural allocations rather than as tactical trading instruments.

“This is just 5 spot ETFs. No BlackRock, no 10-15 ETFs exposure yet, but they are coming,” one analyst noted, projecting that if weekly inflows remain near $200 million, cumulative inflows could surpass $10 billion by 2026.

Despite strong ETF inflows, XRP’s price performance has remained subdued. The token has declined nearly 15% over the past month and was trading at $1.89 at press time.

The disconnect between inflows and price may reflect the mechanics of ETF markets. ETF creation and redemption involve complex arbitrage processes that delay price effects. Market makers hedging their positions may also blunt some of the immediate impact from inflows.

Key takeaways:

• Leverage surges in the crypto market, with $527M in liquidations in 24 hours, signaling growing caution among traders.

• Tighter liquidity and rising AI debt risks push traders to exit riskier assets, contributing to a market correction.

The cryptocurrency market saw a correction on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) retesting the $85,000 level and Ether (ETH) dropping to $2,900. Traders became more risk-averse after a survey showed worsening economic conditions in the United States and changes in investor expectations regarding the proposed options for the next US Federal Reserve Chair.

Bitcoin's brief decline below $90,000 appears dramatic, but structurally, it barely changes anything. This move was a volatility event within an ongoing macro uptrend, not a break in the trend. Almost instantly, the price returned to the high-$80,000 range after flushing liquidity and resetting leverage. A similar story is relevant for Ethereum's future as the asset is seeing a mini-death cross formation. Smaller assets like SHIB are in waiting mode, though.

Bitcoin's strong base

Despite a steep sell-off, Bitcoin is still higher on the daily chart than its long-term trend base. The overall structure looks more like a corrective leg than a trend reversal, and the 200-day moving average is still significantly below the current price. The fact that a decline below $90,000 did not result in consistent follow-through is more important. Sellers had the opportunity but were unable to take it. That in and of itself indicates that demand is still beneath the market.

That point is supported by volume behavior. Following the sell-off, there was a classic liquidation-driven flow spike in activity, which was followed by a decline in volume on the bounce. That typically indicates that forced sales, not natural distribution, are being absorbed. Chart by TradingView">

This perspective is further supported by the RSI, which is currently in the low-to mid-40s. Bitcoin cooled off without going into severe oversold territory. Instead of collapsing, momentum is reset. Over-weighting round-number psychology is the main error that many traders make. Although $90,000 seems significant, Bitcoin does not hold emotional values for very long. Liquidity positioning and trend structure are all respected.

The recent dip appears to be more of a springboard than a ceiling from that angle. The price is currently forming a base that usually precedes continuation rather than failure, as it consolidates in a tightening range. When you zoom out, the overall story remains the same.

ETF flows continue to be a structural bid. Exchange supply is still historically limited. Long-term holders have not exhibited signs of panic. Such dips actually tend to strengthen conviction rather than undermine it. In order to reduce excess leverage and reprice risk, the market required this retreat.

Ethereum's fuel incoming

A mini-death cross on Ethereum's daily chart initially appears to be bad news. When short-term moving averages fall below longer-term ones, reactive selling and bearish headlines typically follow. However, given the current state of the Ethereum market, that signal is more of a setup than a warning, and volatility is the primary cause.

Following a protracted decline and a distinct volatility compression phase, there was a recent crossover between faster EMAs and the midterm trend. For weeks, ETH was steadily declining, its volume was thinning out and its momentum was flattening. Strong downtrends typically do not continue like that. Actual bearish extensions typically pick up speed rather than stagnate. Rather, Ethereum went into a coiled state, and the release valve is essentially the mini-death cross.

In the past, Ethereum has benefited more from volatility than the majority of large-cap assets. It has a strong connection to leveraged positioning, DeFi liquidity and derivatives markets. ETH typically moves faster and harder than Bitcoin in both directions when volatility increases, and upside movements frequently take the lead following protracted cooling periods. Both implied and realized volatility are currently rising above suppressed levels. 

Technically speaking, the price and moving averages are no longer collapsing. After several defenses, ETH is stabilizing around the $3,100-$3,200 range. Instead of being oversold, the RSI is holding close to neutral, indicating that sellers are losing ground rather than gaining control. Crucially, the death cross occurs at the end of the move rather than at the beginning.

Positioning is another aspect that is often ignored. Early shorts are encouraged, and late longs are shaken out by mini-death crosses. It is an imbalance. Short-covering can rapidly intensify the move if the price stays above recent lows and volatility increases. For that, Ethereum just needs movement, not a flawless macro backdrop.

Shiba Inu's divergence

At this point, Shiba Inu's price action appears dull on the surface, but the underlying structure reveals a different picture. SHIB is no longer speeding downward after months of decline. It is compressing instead, and that is important. Compression following a downtrend typically indicates that selling pressure is waning rather than weakness.

The volume-price divergence is currently the most significant signal. Although the price has been reaching slightly lower lows, volume has not increased in tandem with those movements. In actuality, compared to previous sell-offs, the most recent downside attempts occurred on noticeably weaker volume.

From a technical perspective, SHIB is developing a short-term rising structure close to local lows. Even though the general downtrend is still apparent on longer time frames, higher lows are emerging. This implies accumulation as opposed to distribution. Instead of chasing green candles, big players create positions when sentiment is dead and volatility is low. SHIB is currently trading in precisely that kind of environment.

Casual traders are kept cautious by the moving averages' continued overhead position, which is also the original purpose of this setup. Trend continuation begins when pressure subtly builds beneath resistance, not when everything appears to be in order. The move may quickly reverse if volume starts to increase and the price stays above the most recent high low.

RSI strengthens the case. Rather than falling into oversold conditions, it is holding in neutral territory. That indicates that momentum is increasing rather than decreasing. Bears failed to decisively push SHIB lower, despite having plenty of time to do so.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently consolidating in a tight range following its recent selloff, demonstrating resilience by holding above key support zones. However, the price remains firmly capped by a descending trendline and structural resistance around the $3,400 level. While buyers defend the vital $2,905 low, the trend remains sideways until ETH can achieve a decisive close above the descending resistance to initiate the next major rally.

ETH Attempts To Stabilize After The Selloff

According to a daily update from CyrilXBT, Ethereum is attempting to form a base following its recent selloff, but the price remains capped below the 50-day EMA around $3,281. This level continues to act as a key barrier, keeping ETH from confirming a stronger recovery for now.

At the time of the update, ETH was trading near $3,131. On the downside, initial support sits around $3,050, while a broader demand zone between $2,750 and $2,900 remains the more significant area where buyers are expected to step in if selling pressure returns. On the upside, resistance is concentrated between $3,280 and $3,300, aligning closely with the 50-day EMA, which represents a clear “prove-it” level.

Looking ahead, a clean break and sustained hold above $3,300 could open the door for a move back toward the $3,500 area and beyond. However, failure to reclaim this resistance would likely lead to choppy price action, with a possible retest of the $3,000 level and even a revisit of the $2,800 zone.

Ethereum Trades Below Descending Trendline Resistance

Crypto analyst Kamile Uray revealed that ETH is currently confined, moving persistently under a blue descending trendline. This trendline is acting as a significant diagonal resistance barrier, limiting the extent of ETH’s bullish bounces and keeping the short-term pressure tilted downward.

Despite this overhead resistance, the analyst identified a critical support structure. Uray noted that the possibility of the upward movement continuing remains valid as long as the price stays above the rising black trendline and above the low established at $2,905. This confluence of support is crucial for maintaining the market’s current bullish bias.

If the blue descending trendline resistance is decisively broken, the subsequent rally is expected to target a series of higher resistance levels: $3,661, then $3,878, and finally $4,292. Kamile Uray synthesized the condition for the breakout, stating that the descending trendline will approximately be broken if ETH manages to achieve a daily close above the $3,400 level. Meanwhile, the key condition for expecting a continued upward movement is a close above $3,400 combined with the price successfully avoiding a close below the critical $2,905 low.

By Katherine Hamilton

PayPal has applied to form a bank offering business loans and savings accounts.

The digital payments company, which owns Venmo, said Monday it had filed applications with the Utah Department of Financial Institutions and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to establish PayPal Bank.

The bank would be a Utah-chartered industrial loan company, which is a type of entity that can lend money, hold FDIC-insured deposits and be owned by a non-financial institution.

The application comes as PayPal and other payment companies are looking to find a niche in the banking industry. PayPal said the proposed bank would help make its lending to small businesses more efficient, as it would reduce its reliance on third parties.

Since 2013, PayPal has provided more than $30 billion in loans and working capital to more than 420,000 business accounts worldwide.

PayPal also plans to offer interest-bearing savings accounts to customers through its proposed bank. The bank would seek direct membership in the U.S. with card networks to complement processing and settlement activities through existing banking relationships.

Mara McNeill has been chosen to serve as PayPal Bank's president. She previously served as chief executive of Toyota Financial Savings Bank.

Payments companies, including buy now, pay later and crypto platforms, have been making moves to operate more like banks and big financial institutions.

The Minneapolis-based BNPL platform Sezzle said in November it was looking into becoming an industrial loan company because it would make the business more efficient. It said the option was less complicated than becoming a bank holding company.

Buy-now-pay-later companies Klarna and Affirm have both launched debit cards in recent years. Affirm is trying to compete more closely with credit card companies as it looks to bring in more revenue from card payments. Klarna, which operates a digital bank in Europe, has added perks to its card, following in the footsteps of credit card companies' loyalty programs.

Last week, five cryptocurrency platforms received preliminary approval to establish national trust banks. The companies, which include Ripple and Circle, were given conditional approval by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to set up banks, though they won't be able to take deposits, offer checking or savings accounts, or provide FDIC insurance.

Write to Katherine Hamilton at katherine.hamilton@wsj.com