Iran Signals Easing in Negotiations, Easing Supply Pressures in Oil Markets May Follow

Daily News

Summary:

Iran has softened its stance and is considering charging European countries fees for maintaining the Strait of Hormuz; OPEC crude oil production recovered further in July......

【Highlights】

1. Temporary shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz are open without permits or fees, while Trump keeps the door open to negotiations with Iran

2. Iran: Positive progress made in talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz

3. Iran seeks to control inbound shipping through the Strait of Hormuz

4. Iran softens stance, considers charging European countries fees for maintaining the Strait

5. Paulson: Open-minded on the interest-rate path, with focus on core inflation trends

6. U.S. job openings edged lower in June, while labor demand remained stable

7. OPEC crude oil production recovered further in July, with three major Gulf states accounting for nearly all of the increase

【Details】

Temporary Shipping Routes Through the Strait of Hormuz Are Open Without Permits or Fees, While Trump Keeps the Door Open to Negotiations With Iran

A U.S. official said all temporary shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain fully open, with no permits, approvals, or fees required. The official dismissed reports that Iran could take control of shipping through the strait under a potential agreement. The official said the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway and that no party has the authority to control the waterway or restrict the passage of vessels.

A White House official said Trump holds all the cards and, at the request of U.S. regional allies, has kept the possibility of negotiations with Iran open.

Iran: Positive Progress Made in Talks With Oman Over the Strait of Hormuz

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on August 4 that Iran remains in talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, with “positive progress” being made at both the technical and political levels.

According to the Islamic Republic News Agency, Baghaei said the talks are focused on establishing routes that would allow vessels to navigate the strait safely. Iran is working with Oman to develop the necessary mechanisms for managing shipping through the strait. The final outcome will be announced once the talks between the two sides are concluded.

Iran Seeks to Control Inbound Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz

Foreign media outlets reported on August 4, citing senior Iranian sources, that Iran and Oman are discussing a plan to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the proposed arrangement, Iran seeks to control inbound maritime traffic passing through the strait.

According to the reports, Iran would also monitor outbound vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and retain the ability to intervene when necessary. This is reportedly the broad framework currently under discussion. Oman would authorize outbound vessels to proceed after notifying the Iranian side.

The source also said Iran is unlikely to change its position and would probably reject any alternative proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said in a program broadcast by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting on August 2 that Iran and Oman are working to establish a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz under a traffic separation scheme, with the aim of safeguarding the sovereign rights of both sides as well as Iran’s national interests and security.

Iran Softens Stance, Considers Charging European Countries Fees for Maintaining the Strait

Foreign media reports said Iran has softened its stance and is considering allowing European countries to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. The concession could form part of a potential agreement between Iran and the United States aimed at restoring normal shipping through the waterway and easing pressure in peace negotiations with Washington.

Iran has repeatedly stated publicly that it would not allow foreign countries to participate in mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz. However, diplomats familiar with the matter said Tehran has softened its position during closed-door meetings in recent weeks. The shipping and insurance industries are urgently seeking third-party security guarantees from Iran to demonstrate that the Strait of Hormuz has been restored to a safe operating condition after more than five months of military conflict.

In addition, according to the UK’s Daily Telegraph, Iran is considering charging European countries for maintaining the strategic waterway under a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The plan would establish a voluntary fund financed by Gulf states and some European members of the International Maritime Organization.

Gulf and European sources said the proposed voluntary contributions would cover the costs of shipping management, environmental protection, search and rescue operations, and other services in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, Oman believes countries and shipowners that depend on energy supplies from the Gulf region would be willing to contribute to the fund.

Italy, Belgium, and France are among the European countries most dependent on imports of Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas. The UK government, meanwhile, maintains that only around 1% of the crude oil refined in the UK in 2025 came from the Middle East.

Paulson: Open-Minded on the Interest-Rate Path, With Focus on Core Inflation Trends

Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said on Tuesday that he remains open-minded about the Federal Reserve’s future policy path, with the sustainability of the decline in core inflation serving as a key factor in determining the appropriate course of action.

Paulson said the Fed currently faces two possible scenarios. If inflation data continue to improve and inflation expectations remain anchored, the current level of interest rates may already be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the 2% target within a reasonable period. However, if core inflation remains stubbornly elevated, it could indicate that the current degree of policy restraint is insufficient and that further tightening may be necessary.

Paulson acknowledged that recent improvements in some inflation data represent a step in the right direction, but emphasized that they are only one step. Core inflation has remained elevated for an extended period, while the labor market is currently stable and has yet to create additional pressure on monetary policy.

The conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty and added upward pressure on inflation. Meanwhile, the boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure investment has pushed up prices in some sectors while also supporting broader economic growth. These opposing forces have made the policy outlook more complicated.

U.S. Job Openings Edged Lower in June, While Labor Demand Remained Stable

U.S. job openings edged lower in June, suggesting that demand for labor among American businesses remained relatively stable as the summer began.

According to data released by the U.S. government on Tuesday, JOLTS job openings fell to 7.36 million in June from a revised 7.54 million in May. The median market forecast had called for around 7.40 million openings.

The decline in job openings was mainly driven by reductions in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, wholesale trade, and business services. Layoffs remained broadly unchanged.

The report released Tuesday reinforced the picture of a stable labor market with limited layoffs. Although some employers remain cautious about expanding their workforces, resilient consumer spending continues to support hiring plans. Hiring activity accelerated, driven by the healthcare and construction sectors.

Hiring in leisure and hospitality declined for a third consecutive month, falling to its lowest level since early 2025. This contrasts with earlier expectations that the World Cup would boost demand for labor.

OPEC Crude Oil Production Recovered Further in July, With Three Major Gulf States Accounting for Nearly All of the Increase

A media survey showed that OPEC crude oil production recovered further in July from some of the losses caused by the conflict, with higher output from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq driving the increase in supply.

The survey showed that OPEC members increased supply by 1.16 million barrels per day in July to an average of 19.44 million barrels per day, with the three major Gulf states accounting for nearly all of the increase. However, the group’s production remained significantly below pre-conflict levels.

Iraq led the increase in OPEC output in July, with daily production rising by 460,000 barrels to 2.30 million barrels.

According to tanker-tracking data, Iraq’s crude oil loadings increased by 37% in July. Kuwait’s daily production rose by 360,000 barrels to 1.57 million barrels. Kuwaiti officials said this week that the country had restored its average production to the highest level since the conflict began.

The situation in Saudi Arabia was more complicated. According to the survey, Saudi output increased by 390,000 barrels per day to 7.40 million barrels per day, but remained several million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels.

Meanwhile, Saudi export flows declined as Houthi threats affected tankers using alternative routes through the Red Sea.

【Today’s Key Events】

16:00 (UTC+8) Switzerland July ZEW Investor Confidence

01:30 (UTC+8) Bank of Canada releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting

02:00 (UTC+8) U.S. July interest rate decision

02:30 (UTC+8) Fed Chair Paulson holds a monetary policy press conference

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Risk Disclosure

The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.

Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data