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Investors in Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Aug 16, 2024 $190 Put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.
What is Implied Volatility?
Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.
What do the Analysts Think?
Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Casey's General Stores shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Casey's General Stores is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) in the Retail-Convenience Stores industry that ranks in the Top 40% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, one analyst has increased its earnings estimates for the current quarter, while four analysts have revised their estimates downward. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from $4.69 per share to $4.60 per share in that period.
Given the way analysts feel about Casey's General Stores right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.
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Zacks Investment Research
Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY has made a strategic move to strengthen its position in the market. The third-largest convenience store retailer and the fifth-largest pizza chain in the United States has entered a deal to acquire Fikes Wholesale, Inc., the owner of CEFCO Convenience Stores.
The acquisition, valued at $1.145 billion in an all-cash transaction, includes tax benefits worth approximately $165 million, reducing the net after-tax purchase price to $980 million. This buyout involves 198 retail stores and a dealer network, which would increase Casey’s footprint to nearly 2,900 stores across the United States.
Fikes, the company with a rich history dating back to 1952 when it started as a single filling station in Cameron, TX, has grown into a well-regarded operator with locations in multiple states. This acquisition will significantly bolster Casey’s presence in Texas by adding 148 stores in this key strategic market. Furthermore, the deal includes 50 additional stores in Alabama, Florida and Mississippi, along with a fuel terminal and a commissary to support the Texas operations.
Operational & Financial Impacts
The acquisition of Fikes is expected to deliver substantial operational and financial benefits to Casey’s. The strategic alignment and shared values between the two companies were pivotal in driving the acquisition. CASY plans to reinvest in the newly acquired stores, introduce its popular pizza offerings to CEFCO customers and create professional opportunities for Fikes employees.
Casey’s anticipates this acquisition to create significant value for its shareholders in the near and long term. The transaction is expected to be accretive to the company’s EBITDA within fiscal 2025. Representing an approximate multiple of 11 times CEFCO’s pro-forma adjusted 2023 EBITDA, the acquisition is set to close in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2024.
The financing for this transaction will be sourced from Casey’s balance sheet cash and bank financing. CASY projects $45 million in annual run-rate synergies, primarily driven by the completion of kitchen installations in the acquired stores.
Alignment With Growth Strategy
This acquisition is a key component of Casey’s growth strategy, which aims to achieve top-quintile EBITDA growth by expanding the number of units. By acquiring Fikes, CASY will accelerate its growth plan with high-quality assets, significantly enhancing its presence in Texas and the surrounding region. This move complements Casey’s recent acquisition of 22 stores in northern Texas.
Advisors for Casey’s included BMO Capital Markets Corp., and Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, with Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton as antitrust legal counsel. Fikes was advised by BofA Securities, and Bourland, Wall & Wenzel, P.C.
Wrapping Up
Casey's has positioned itself as a strong and dynamic player in the convenience store industry by capitalizing on key growth drivers, embracing technology, expanding private-label offerings, and consistently improving the customer experience. This strategic acquisition underscores the company’s commitment to growth and expansion, positioning it for continued success in the competitive market.
Shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have advanced 22.4% in the past three months, in tandem with the industry’s growth.
3 Stocks Looking Red Hot
We have highlighted three better-ranked stocks, namely Walmart Inc. WMT, Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL and Costco Wholesale Corporation COST.
Walmart has evolved from just being a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer into an omnichannel player. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Walmart’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 4.3% and 9.5%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers. WMT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.3%, on average.
Burlington functions as a retailer of branded apparel products and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Burlington’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 9.6% and 25.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers. BURL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.7%, on average.
Costco sells high volumes of food and general merchandise. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.3%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 5.2% and 10.3%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers.
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